NFL Weekly

NFL Mock Draft

2009-04-25T12:50:00.000-07:00

1. Detroit (0-16)- QB Matt Stafford (Georgia)

This already has been confirmed, so I’ll just give a brief summary of what I think. This could be great or this could be disastrous. They are giving him 41.7 million dollar guaranteed which is a lot. That could make him complacent and not want to give his all, especially through what figures to be a rough start to his career with very little talent around him. However, he has one of the strongest arms of any quarterback prospect in the last 5 years. He needs to learn to not force things and make better decisions and he’d probably be better off sitting a year behind Daunte Culpepper. I would have gone with the safer pick, Jason Smith, but this pick has a lot more upside.

2. St. Louis (2-14)- OT Jason Smith (Baylor)

This one is almost as much of a lock as the Stafford pick. The Rams need an offensive lineman badly to replace Orlando Pace, otherwise Mark Bulger might actually die this season. The only other thing I could see happening here is the Rams’ changing their minds and deciding that Eugene Monroe is the best tackle here, but as of now, Smith is going to be the pick.

3. Kansas City (2-14)- DE Tyson Jackson (LSU)

This is a surprise pick here. Everyone has had Aaron Curry going here since they traded for Matt Cassel, but reports have come out in the last week that Pioli has fallen in love with Jackson and wants him as that Richard Seymour type of 3-4 end who can also pressure the quarterback. That, combined with the addition of Zach Thomas, may have tipped the Chiefs hand that this will be a surprise pick. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was still Curry, but Jackson is more likely.

4. Seattle (4-12)- OLB Aaron Curry (Wake Forest)

Seattle needs another outside linebacker now that Julian Peterson is in Detroit. They shouldn’t hesitate to fill that need with the best overall defensive player in this draft class. Their other starting linebacker from last year, Leroy Hill, has been given the franchise tag but has not signed, giving them more reason to bring in a defensive presence like Curry. Curry will help immediately a defense that ranked 30^th in the league in yards per game allowed. With Matt Hasselbeck still signed, they are going to want to help their team right now and picking Curry will allow them to do that.

5. Cleveland (4-12)- OLB Brian Orakpo (Texas)

The Browns only mustered 17 sacks last season, which, if it wasn’t for the Chiefs’ awful showing of 10, would have ranked last in the NFL. Willie McGinest is done as an elite pass rusher, maybe as a football player completely, so they are going to need another top rushing outside linebacker. Brian Orakpo played defensive end in college, but at 263 pounds with a 4.70 40, Orakpo should be easily able to move to outside linebacker in a 3-4 system. He had 10.5 sacks last season and is considered the best pass rusher in the draft.

6. Cincinnati (4-11-1)- OT Eugene Monroe (Virginia)

This passing offense, when healthy, can make this a playoff team by itself. However, they were not healthy last year as Carson Palmer was sacked so many times that he had to miss 12 games with injury. They need to protect Palmer and the best way to do that is with a franchise type left tackle like Monroe. If Palmer is healthy, and the defense continues to improve as they did last year, this could be a surprise team next season.

7. Oakland (5-11)- WR Darrius Heyward Bey (Maryland)

I originally had Michael Johnson here for his freakish athleticism, but then the thought occurred to me that Al Davis is going to want to help out his 60 million dollar quarterback, JaMarcus Russell. So, I slated the equally athletic Darrius Heyward Bey here. He is a great athlete, but I’m not convinced he can be a legitimate #1 option in the NFL. However, Al Davis will see his 4.30 40 at 6 foot 2 and think otherwise. He will take him even if Michael Crabtree is still available, though Crabtree is the best receiving prospect since Calvin Johnson, causing some Raiders’ fans to shoot themselves.

8. Jacksonville (5-11)- WR Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech)

Oakland’s loss is Jacksonville’s gain. Al Davis was scared off by the fact that Michael Crabtree didn’t run a 40, due to injury, and took Darrius Heyward Bey, who had the fastest 40 of any NFL prospect. Now the Jaguars get Crabtree to come in and play alongside Torry Holt. He’ll also have the privilege of learning from Holt, which will help him tremendous. Jacksonville’s receiving corps aren’t looking so sorry after all, in fact, if David Garrard is his 2007 self again, this passing game could surprise.

9. Green Bay (6-10)- NT BJ Raji (Boston College)

Ryan Pickett is moving to nose tackle for their 3-4 defense. However, Pickett is 30 years old, on a contract year, and has never played nose tackle before. There is going to be room in the mix for Raji, even if he doesn’t get a lot of action at nose tackle right away. Raji is versatile and despite his massive size, he can move to defensive end in 3-4 for the time being, which is a big position need for the Packers.

10. San Francisco (7-9)- QB Mark Sanchez (USC)

Mike Singletary is a conservative coach, so he’ll have some qualms about taking a signal caller, especially given what happened to Alex Smith. However, the 2008 Niners were not the 2004 Niners. Sanchez isn’t going to have a lot of pressure on him right away, as Shaun Hill is still a capable starter. The offensive line isn’t as miserable and he’d be backed by a solid defense. Overall, Sanchez should do a good job in San Francisco and he’s too good of a prospect to pass up at #10. One interesting idea I had is that the Niners trade this pick to Washington, along with Shaun Hill, for Jason Campbell and the 13^th pick. However, I am not going to “mock” that down here since I’ve heard no rumors whatsoever about the possibility.

11. Buffalo (7-9)- OT Michael Oher (Mississippi)

Jason Peters is gone so their biggest need, defensive end, will have to wait. The defensive end class is a lot deeper than the offensive tackle class. If they were to take a defensive end here, they could be stuck choosing between Phil Loadholt and Jamon Meredith at #28 and that would not be a favorable situation. Instead, they take Oher here and look to target defensive ends either that #28 or #42.

12. Denver (8-8)- OLB Aaron Maybin (Penn State)

The Broncos want to add anything they can to their defense and bringing in the guy I view as the best overall pass rusher in the class will definitely be something the Broncos do if even the chance. They ranked 26^th in the league in sacks and are moving to a new defensive scheme. Maybin would be a perfect fit at 3-4 rush linebacker and would help their passing defense as a whole. Their passing defense ranked 31^st in opposing quarterback rating allowed.

13. Washington (8-8)- OT Andre Smith (Alabama)

After his no show at the combine and his sorry showing at his pro day, Andre Smith does in no way deserve to be a 1^st round pick. However, he has great potential, so someone is still going to take a chance, and probably make a mistake, by drafting him in the first round. The Redskins need a right tackle and they have an owner in charge who often makes mistakes. It’s a match made in heaven.

14. New Orleans (8-8)- RB Chris Wells (Ohio State)

I am 100% percent sure that the Saints will take someone from Ohio State. However, whether it will be Chris Wells or Malcolm Jenkins, I am not sure. I believe it’ll be Wells because he’ll give them the best chance to win now. With Drew Brees leading the passing game, and the double headed running back of Reggie Bush and Chris Wells, assuming the two can avoid injuries, the defense only has to be decent for this team to be a Super Bowl contender. Malcolm Jenkins would fill more of a position need, but Wells will give them the best chance to win next year, which is what this team wants. They’ll have to settle for Jabari Greer and Darren Sharper as their only defensive backfield additions this offseason. If that can be enough to improve their pass defense, they’ll be fine defensively next year.

15. Houston (8-8)- FS Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio State)

The Texans have always lacked the ball hawking leader in their defensive backfield. Malcolm Jenkins will be a great fit here because of his versatility. He can play corner alongside Dunta Robinson, or be an upgrade over Nick Ferguson at safety. Either way, he’ll help a pass defense that only had 12 picks last year.

16. San Diego (8-8)- DE Evander Hood (Missouri)

This is the second surprise pick. With all of the top 4 offensive tackle off the board, the Chargers will turn to defense, instead of reaching for a guy like Eben Britton. This could be middle linebacker with Rey Maualuga, but Igor Olshansky is gone at defensive end and this team needs someone to replace him along the 3 man defensive line. Hood played defense tackle in college, but he’s a good pass rusher, especially for his size, 300 pounds, which the Chargers will love.

17. New York Jets (9-7)- QB Josh Freeman (Kansas State)

The Jets are going to try to trade up for Mark Sanchez and then they’re going to try to trade for Jason Campbell. However, if Jacksonville keeps their pick at #8, which they will if Michael Crabtree is available, the Jets can’t move up there to take Sanchez and the Redskins can’t move up their to take Sanchez and alienate Jason Campbell. The Jets will have to settle for Josh Freeman. Freeman reminds me of Joe Flacco a little bit, who stepped into a similar situation in Baltimore last year and led them to the playoffs as a rookie. New Jets head coach and former Ravens’ defensive coordinator Rex Ryan will believe the Freeman can do the same here.

18. Denver - from Chicago (9-7)- MLB Rey Maualuga (USC)

More defensive help for a team that desperately needs it. They signed Andra Davis, but they need another middle linebacker to pair with him if they want to avoid finishing 30^th in run defense again. Maualuga’s stock has slipped to due an injury, but I believe the injury is nothing major and Maualuga is still the top 10 caliber prospect he was before he got hurt.

19. Tampa Bay (9-7)- DE Robert Ayers (Tennessee)

They need a defensive tackle which is why I wouldn’t be surprised if they moved this pick to Kansas City for Glenn Dorsey, with the Chiefs then picking either Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing to add some youth to their linebacking corps. However, I have not heard much of that rumor, so I won’t put that down. The Bucs will consider Peria Jerry, but he’s not a great fit for their system, so they’ll look at another position. They could get a burner receiver like Jeremy Maclin, but after the complete overhaul of their defense this offseason, I believe this will be a defensive pick. Ayers is a great athlete, who could have easily gone earlier than this. Put him next to Gaines Adams and they’ll solidified their pass rush for the next 8-10 years.

20. Detroit - from Dallas (9-7)- OT William Beatty (Connecticut)

The Lions have to protect Matt Stafford if they want him to have any chance of being a good quarterback. William Beatty will allow the Lions to move Jeff Backus back to his natural position at left guard, successfully upgrading two positions along the line at once. That is definitely going to help Stafford long term.

21. Philadelphia (9-6-1)- RB Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)

The Eagles need another running back to pair with Brian Westbrook. Perferably it would be a power back, but the Eagles can’t be picky. Moreno fits their west coast offense very well. He’ll split carries with Westbrook, hopefully lengthening Westbrook’s career in the process, and then he’ll take over for Westbrook, who turns 30 in September, when Westbrook is finished in Philly.

22. Minnesota (10-6)- OT Eben Britton (Arizona)

Ryan Cook is a bad right tackle. Eben Britton is not. Imagine how much better Adrian Peterson will be with the massive 310 pound Britton blocking for him on the right side and Bryant McKinnie blocking for him on the left. This running game will be better than ever and the Vikings have shown that its all about maximizing and improve your strengths, at least in their eyes.

23. New England (11-5)- OLB Clay Matthews (USC)

I wouldn’t take Matthews because I don’t think he helps their pass rush as much as they need. I’d take someone like Everette Brown or Connor Barwin, but Bill Belicheck loves Clay Matthews’ versatility and who am I to argue with someone with 3 Super Bowl rings. Matthews still fills a position of incredible need.

24. Atlanta (11-5)- DE Everette Brown (Florida State)

Taking another defensive end in the first round, 2 years after taking Jamaal Anderson, also a defensive end, might seem like a bad idea. However, sticking with Anderson, two sacks in 2 seasons, would be a worse idea. This defense isn’t going to be very good with all of the players they’ve lost, but if they want to improve their defense in the most efficient way possible, they need to take a page out of the New York Giants’ book and pressure the hell out of the opposing quarterback. Brown had 13 sacks last season and is good enough to go in the top 10, but has slipped due to lack of need.

25. Miami (11-5)- CB Vontae Davis (Illinois)

Vontae Davis is the most athletic corner in the draft class, but he’s also a pain in the ass. Bill Parcells is known for his ability to take risks on guys and with this pass defense set to get even more awful with the loss of Andre Goodman, I expect Parcells to take Davis and hope for the best.

26. Baltimore (11-5)- WR Jeremy Maclin (Missouri)

Derrick Mason is 35 and has only one more year on his contract. The Ravens need another wideout across from Mark Clayton. Maclin can start in the slot, providing young Joe Flacco with another option before moving into the starting lineup in a season or two. Maclin is a steal here at this point.

27. Indianapolis (12-4)- DT Peria Jerry (Mississippi)

I’ve had the Colts taking a wide receiver here for a while, because history has shown that they like to take offense. That’s still a possibility with Kenny Britt available, but I’ve changed this pick to Peria Jerry because I just see him as too good of a fit for them to pass up. They also have a new coach now that Tony Dungy is gone so the same rules may not apply. Tony Dungy was always confident in his ability to coach the defense that he would rarely spend an early pick on defense, but new coach Jim Caldwell might not have that same confidence. He may have more confidence in Peyton Manning that his own ability to coach defense, which would be wise.

28. Buffalo - from Philadelphia via Carolina (12-4)- TE Brandon Pettigrew (Oklahoma)

They need a defensive end, but this is a deep defensive end class and I can’t see them passing up a great tight end prospect with Brandon Pettigrew. He’s just way too big of a steal at this point, especially for a team with absolutely no one of note at the tight end position going into next season. With Lee Evans, Terrell Owens, and Pettigrew, Trent Edwards will have plenty of nice targets to throw to next year, which will be great for his development, as long as Owens doesn’t suspect Pettigrew and Edwards of a conspiracy to keep the ball away from him.

29. New York Giants (12-4)- WR Kenny Britt- Rutgers

Plaxico Burress is gone, so if the Giants can’t get Anquan Boldin or Braylon Edwards, they’ll get the next best thing, 6 foot 3 Kenny Britt. I believe Britt’s combination of size, speed, and good hands makes him the 2^nd best receiver in this class, though it may not play out that way on draft day. The Giants should consider themselves lucky they can get a downfield target like Britt for Eli Manning to throw to.

30. Tennessee (13-3)- CB Darius Butler (Connecticut)

Cornerback isn’t their biggest need, but Nick Harper is going to turn 35 next season and Darius Butler is too good to pass up here. The Titans love 40 times almost as much as the Raiders so Butler’s 4.38 has to be attractive. He’s the best player available for them here and fills a need. They can get their defensive line help in later rounds.

31. Arizona (9-7)- RB Donald Brown (Connecticut)

Edgerrin James isn’t happy in Arizona and he’ll be 31 by the time the season starts up. His days are numbered. Tim Hightower can really push the pile as a running back and pick up first downs and touchdowns, but he’s not an every down back. He averaged 2.8 yards per carry last season. Donald Brown can come in, allow them to cut or trade Edge, and pair very nicely with Hightower.

32. Pittsburgh (12-4)- C Alex Mack (California)

Their line was too awful last season for them to pass up a once in a generation type center prospect like Alex Mack, as some people are calling him. Mack has only slipped because of his position and the lack of need for centers, but Pittsburgh needs one badly. Justin Hartwig was one of the worst in the NFL last season, while Mack would be a top 5 center, maybe even top 3, from day one in the NFL.

NFL Mock Draft 3/14

2009-03-14T19:00:00.000-07:00

1. Detroit Lions 0-16

QB Matt Stafford- Georgia

I don’t agree with the pick, but I have very little doubt in my mind that this pick will be Matt Stafford. The Lions need hope fast and the prospect of a great franchise quarterback like Stafford is going to give them hope. I would build around a quarterback, with a top left tackle like Eugene Monroe or Jason Smith, and then take a quarterback next season when the quarterback class is much stronger, but this is not what I think should happen, this is what I think will happen. I would be surprised if the Lions took anyone other than Stafford.

2. St. Louis Rams 2-14

OT Jason Smith- Baylor

Orlando Pace is gone so the Rams need a Jake Long or Joe Thomas esque franchise left tackle to protect Mark Bulger or whoever is the quarterback next season. Jason Smith is the top left tackle on the board, followed closely by Eugene Monroe. I think the pick will be Smith, but I would not be surprised if the Rams took Monroe. However, I give Smith the edge here because of his superior combine performance.

3. Kansas City Chiefs 2-14

OLB/MLB Aaron Curry- Wake Forest

The Chiefs will not take a quarterback here like many thought they would because they have since traded for Matt Cassel. Now they need to focus on fixing that awful defense. They need pass rushers badly because they had a record low 10 sacks last season. However, with the move for veteran Mike Vrabel, they can afford to take a different position here. The combination of Derrick Johnson and Vrabel rushing off the edge is good enough for next season. Aaron Curry is the best defensive player available and can slide right into the Chiefs’ hole in the middle of their 3-4 defense.

4. Seattle Seahawks 4-12

OT Eugene Monroe- Virginia

The Seahawks locked like a look to take Michael Crabtree until they signed TJ Houshmanzadeh in a surprise signing. Now, with Deion Branch lining up at the #2 and Nate Burleson coming back from injury next season, they have a respectable group of receivers and can afford to wait until a later round to address that position. The Seahawks have the less than stellar Sean Locklear starting at right tackle, assuming they move Ray Willis to guard as they say they will, and 35 year old Walter Jones starting at left. Monroe can play right until Jones moves on, which could be next off season, and then move over to left, his natural position.

5. Cleveland Browns 4-12

DE/OLB Brian Orakpo- Texas

The Browns only mustered 17 sacks last season, which, if it wasn’t for the Chiefs’ awful showing of 10, would have ranked last in the NFL. Willie McGinest is done as an elite pass rusher so they are going to need another top rushing outside linebacker. Brian Orakpo played defensive end in college, but at 263 pounds with a 4.70 40, Orakpo should be easily able to move to outside linebacker in a 3-4 system. He had 10.5 sacks last season and is considered the best pass rusher in the draft.

6. Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1

DT BJ Raji- Boston College

The Bengals need offensive line help, but they can get some in a later round because right now, the only way to get an offensive lineman would be to reach for either Michael Oher or Andre Smith, which wouldn’t be smart. With a decent 2^nd round offensive lineman, Carson Palmer should be able to get the help he needs to stay healthy and lead this offense back to playoff form. It’s the defense that worries me. They ranked in the bottom half in most defensive categories, including run defense. BJ Raji was amazing at the senior bowl where he was coached by the Bengals’ coaching staff. He’s simply too good of a defensive prospect for the Bengals to pass up here.

7. Oakland Raiders 5-11

DE/OLB Everette Brown- Florida State

We must check this pick for all 3 of the parts that every Raiders’ pick has. A Raiders’ pick must, on the surface look like a good move, because it fills a positional need. Jay Richardson, at left end, only had 3 sacks last season. Meanwhile, at right end, Derrick Burgess had only 3.5 sacks and is going to turn 31. Rumor has it the Raiders are trying to trade him. Brown definitely fills a need. A Raiders’ pick must have great athleticism, especially a great 40. Brown ran a 4.73 40 which is very good for a defensive end, especially when you consider the fact that most players were running unusually slow 40s at the combine. Brown should run somewhere around 4.62-4.65 at his pro day, which is amazing. Finally, a Raiders’ pick should, in spite of parts 1 and 2, make no sense when you look at it close enough. At 6-1 and change and only 256 pounds, Brown is way too small to play defensive end at a high level in a 4-3. He’s way too small to compete one on one with big left tackles. Many believe this pick will be Michael Crabtree. Crabtree does not have the 40 time. He was not all that fast to begin with and, if he actually runs a 40 before the draft, he will do it with a broken foot, which will not help.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11

WR Michael Crabtree- Texas Tech

The Jaguars should be weary about taking a receiver in the first round considering the busts that Matt Jones and Reggie Williams have been after they have taken them. However, neither of those guys was as talented as Crabtree so they shouldn’t worry too much. Crabtree has slipped to due injury and questions about his speed, however, he is still the best receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson so the Jaguars, who lack a #1 option, need to take him here.

9. Green Bay Packers 5-11

CB Vontae Davis- Illinois

Al Harris and Charles Woodson are fine corners, but both are in the mid 30s. Harris might be gone by next season and Woodson reportedly will be making the switch to safety in the next year or two. After those guys, they are very thin at the cornerback position. Davis would give them depth next season and could be a future starter. This would be a great position for Davis as well because he gets to spend a year in a position where he does not have to guard elite receivers. This will allow him to mature correctly.

10. San Francisco 49ers 7-9

OT Michael Oher- Mississippi

The 49ers could go a lot of different ways here. They need a pass rushing outside linebacker more than anything, but I think it’s too early to take Aaron Maybin or even Larry English. They need a corner and a safety. Malcolm Jenkins can play both of those positions and, if he had had a very good workout at his pro day, he would have been the pick here. However, so far he has shown that he lacks the athletic ability to be worth a top 10 pick as evidenced by poor 40 times at the Combine and at his pro day. Mark Sanchez is the popular pick, but I don’t think conservative coach Mike Singletary will use a first rounder on a quarterback when his team has other needs. Offensive line then makes the most sense. Young Joe Staley has been decent at left tackle in his first 2 years in the league, but he needs to move back to his natural position, right tackle, full time. Michael Oher would allow them to move Staley to there. Oher might be viewed as a bit of a reach, but he was at one point a top 3 caliber pick, so he could also be a steal here. Rey Maualuga is a possibility as well.

11. Buffalo Bills 7-9

DE/OLB Larry English- Northern Illinois

The Bills need to generate a better pass rush. English was one of the college football’s best pass rushers last season with 8 sacks and was Northern Illinois’ all time leader pass rusher with 30.5 sacks, despite sitting his freshman year. He can definitely help them here. Starting right end Aaron Schobel has injury issues and starting left end Chris Kelsay is nothing special. English might be small for a defensive end, at 255 pounds, but Schobel is 243 pounds and has thrived in Buffalo’s defensive system for the throughout his career, before getting hurt last year. English shouldn’t have much problem doing the same. Plus, English benched 36 reps at the combine so it’s not like it’s a lack of strength issue.

12. Denver Broncos 8-8

MLB Rey Maualuga- USC

The Denver Broncos are regarded as having one of the 5 worst defenses in NFL history last season. They are now switching to a 3-4 so they are going to need big, strong tackle machines in the middle of their defense and they have none of those right now. Maualuga is the top middle linebacker prospect in the draft and fits the mold of the tough defensive presence they have lacked for years. He will help the Broncos run defense especially, which ranked 30^th in the league last year giving up 5.0 yards per carry.

13. Washington Redskins 8-8

OT Andre Smith- Alabama

Someone is going to take a risk on Smith early and I have a feeling that someone will be the Redskins. Smith has the athletic ability of a #1 pick with the work ethic of an undrafted free agent. However, the Redskins often take risks on guys with character issues and they have a need for a right tackle right now. Jon Jansen has had a good run as a starter at right tackle, but he’s 33 and lost his job last season, maybe for good. He could stand to be upgraded.

14. New Orleans Saints 8-8

CB/FS Malcolm Jenkins- Ohio State

Jenkins’ slow 40 at the combine raised some issues as to whether he is a cornerback or a free safety. That shouldn’t be an issue for a team with needs at both of those positions, which the Saints do. Jenkins would be more valuable to a team at corner and could mature into an upgrade over Randall Gay at corner. However, he will likely fit in better at free safety at first. Free safety is a position that, last season, was occupied by either Josh Bullocks or Kevin Kaesviharn. Jenkins would be an upgrade over both of them from day 1.

15. Houston Texans 8-8

OLB Brian Cushing- USC

The Texans offense was amazing last season, especially considering that Matt Schaub missed time with injury, as the team ranked 2^nd in passing yards per attempt. They have a decent ground game too, but the defense was what kept this from being a playoff team. They did a good job filling a need at left end with Antonio Smith, but they still need to take the best defensive player available. Cushing is the best defensive player available. He would be an immediate upgrade over Morlon Greenwood, who did not record a single sack, interception, or forced fumble all season, and could pair well with promising young Xavier Alibi, a 4^th round pick last season.

16. San Diego Chargers 8-8

DE Tyson Jackson- LSU

The Chargers have several needs, a 3-4 defensive end, a middle linebacker, a right tackle, a guard, and a strong safety. Unfortunately for them, drafting any of those positions here would be a reach, which is why I think they will move down if even the opportunity. If the draft falls this way come draft time, the Chargers will have plenty of suitors wanting to move to up take Mark Sanchez, including Tampa Bay at #19 and Minnesota at #22. The Chargers will be able to get more value for their pick if they move down to either one of those spots and in those spots will still be able to get guys to fill their needs. However, if they cannot, for whatever reason, trade down, they will take Tyson Jackson who is the best player available at end of their need positions. He can start from day one as a defensive end in the 3-4 system and replace Igor Olshansky who has moved on to Dallas. I had a running back going here until the Chargers resigned LT to a contract that will pay him exactly the same amount next season and will not safe them any money until 2010. Because of that, I don’t think the Chargers will take a running back here and pay him 5-6 million, which is what Chris Wells or Knowshon Moreno would cost at this point, when they still have to pay LT 8 million and Darren Sproles 6.6 mil. They won’t tie up that much money at one position.

17. New York Jets 9-7

QB Mark Sanchez- USC

The Jets have done a great job of building their defense, bringing in Bart Scott, Lito Sheppard, and Jim Leonhard. However, with Brett Favre gone, they need a new quarterback. The Jets shouldn’t have any qualms about starting Sanchez from day 1. They are putting him in a situation similar to the one Joe Flacco took over last year. Solid running game, solid line, and most importantly great defense to back him. Flacco led the Ravens to the playoffs as a rookie.

18. Chicago Bears 9-7

OT Eben Britton- Arizona

The Bears need a receiver, but don’t think that this pick is going to be Jeremy Maclin just because he has slipped a bit. The Bears simply don’t take receivers in the first round. They conservative Bears will take an offensive lineman again, for the 2^nd year in a row. John Tait is retiring. John St. Clair is still a free agent and might not be back and so is Fred Miller so the Bears are without a right tackle on their roster. Even if St. Clair and/or Miller return, they still need offensive line help. Both St. Clair and Miller are average at best and left tackle Chris Williams has injury issues. If Williams can stay healthy, he and Britton will make a nice offensive tackle duo for the next 10-12 years.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7

DT Peria Jerry- Mississippi

Even though the Bucs have a new regime in town, don’t expect this pick to be a quarterback unless they move up to get Sanchez or Sanchez somehow falls to them. Luke McGown has been promised a chance at a starting job so they won’t use a 1^st rounder on a quarterback, especially when new head Raheem Morris has said he is committed to rebuilding the defense. The Bucs don’t have a 2^nd rounder so if they go quarterback in the first round, they will have a hard time rebuilding the defense through the draft. Peria Jerry is the best defensive player available and fills a need at defensive tackle.

20. Detroit Lions (via DAL) 0-16

OT William Beatty- Connecticut

21. Philadelphia Eagles 9-6-1

RB Chris Wells- Ohio State

The Eagles haven’t gone after running backs as long as Andy Reid has been coach, but Reid isn’t stupid. He knows his job is on the line and his team needs to win now. The majority of the good teams in the league last year won on the strong of good running games with at least two good running backs. Wells would compliment Brian Westbrook well, allowing Westbrook to be more of a playmaker than a true running back and reducing the strain on and hopefully the threat of injury to Westbrook’s legs.

22. Minnesota Vikings 10-6

C Alex Mack- California

The Vikings appear content with Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels as their quarterbacks, so this pick won’t be Josh Freeman. The Vikings will then turn to their offensive line, which could be upgraded at 2, if not 3 positions here. They could go right tackle with either Jamon Meredith or Phil Loadholt, right guard with Duke Robinson, or center with Alex Mack. Mack is the best value here and should be the pick.

23. New England Patriots 11-5

DE/OLB Michael Johnson- Georgia Tech

Two months ago, the decision here was between a cornerback and a linebacker. Since then, they have signed cornerbacks Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden and traded linebacker Mike Vrabel. It seems that decision has been made for them. Michael Johnson is one of the most athletic pass rushing prospects in a while. He has been compared to Julius Peppers and Mario Williams. He might not have the motor, but you have to think a team like a Patriots will think they can bring to most out of him.

24. Atlanta Falcons 11-5

CB DJ Moore- Vanderbilt

The Falcons defense was not good last season, ranking 24^th in the league in yards per game allowed. This off season, they have lost 5 defensive starters from last season, Keith Brooking, Michael Boley, Domonique Foxworth, Lawyer Milloy, and Grady Jackson. Jamaal Anderson, at left end, only had 2 sacks last season and could be replaced. They also need a tight end badly. Because of all of those needs, this pick could go a number of ways. However, the rest of their needs can be addressed in later rounds. They have a lot of depth at corner, but they need a legitimate #2 starter. They won’t be able to get one in the later rounds. Moore can also double as a kick returner, which the Falcons also need.

25. Miami Dolphins 11-5

OLB/DE Clay Matthews- USC

The Dolphins need a linebacker and they need a cornerback. History has shown that when given a choice between a linebacker and anything else, Bill Parcells will take a linebacker. Clay Matthews is the best available. He can support a pass rush that died late last season and be the replacement for Joey Porter when he moves on or if they decide to trade him. This draft class is structured such that the Dolphins should be able to get a good cornerback when they pick with Washington’s pick at #44 in the 2^nd round.

26. Baltimore Ravens 11-5

WR Jeremy Maclin- Missouri

27. Indianapolis Colts 12-4

WR Hakeem Nicks- North Carolina

The Colts have a history of drafting offensively, even with holes on defense. Nicks is good value here and will allow Anthony Gonzalez to stay in the slot, even with Marvin Harrison gone. He will give Peyton Manning 3 good targets to choose from and make this offense even more deadly.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (via CAR) 9-6-1

OG/OT Duke Robinson- Oklahoma

Andy Reid loves to draft offensive linemen when he can, and even sometimes when he can’t. The Eagles have lost Tra Thomas to the Jaguars and it does not look like Jon Runyan will be brought back. Shawn Andrews is still battling depression and might not be back next season, so you can expect the Eagles to take one or two big offensive linemen early in the draft. At 329 pounds, Duke Robinson fills that need. He also is versatile enough to play in 4 spots along the line, which will be essential as the Eagles figure out what Shawn Andrews’ future is like and determine what to do position wise with Todd Herremans.

29. New York Giants 12-4

RB Knowshon Moreno- Georgia

The Giants have done a great job of reloading their defense this off season, so they can afford to focus on offense here. Running back isn’t the biggest need for the Giants here, but Moreno might be too good to pass up here. Plus, running back wasn’t the biggest need for Minnesota when they took Adrian Peterson in 2007, nor was it for the Panthers when they took Jonathan Stewart last year nor was it for the Titans when they took Chris Johnson last year. Look where it got those teams. The Giants did it with Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs last season and they can do the same this year with Jacobs and Moreno.

30. Tennessee Titans 13-3

DT Evander Hood- Missouri

The Titans lost Albert Haynesworth to free agency and he left a huge gaping hole in the middle of their defense. You have to think that Jeff Fisher is going to fix up the defensive line if he needs to, despite the fact that the Titans are badly in need of wide receivers. Evander Hood’s strong combine pushed him into the late 1^st-early 2^nd round range. Fisher will love his potential and athleticism.

31. Arizona Cardinals 9-7

OLB/DE Clint Sintim- Virginia

The Cardinals pass rush struggled last season, even late in the season during their Super Bowl run. They only had 31 sacks which can be improved. The Cardinals like tweener linebacker/defensive ends because they give them versatility. Sintim qualifies and can help a defense in need. He’d be an upgrade over Chike Okeafor.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers 13-3

FS/CB Sean Smith- Utah

The Steelers could use another safety to pair with Troy Polamalu. Neither Anthony Smith nor Ryan Clark were anything special last season and Smith would be an immediate upgrade over both. The Steelers need offensive line badly, but, for one thing, I don’t think they realize how badly they need offensive lineman as they appear content to let Ben Roethlisberger get beat up and chased around every week (hey, they won the Super Bowl, you can’t really question it) and for another thing, no offensive lineman really merits selection here.

Thoughts on Terrell Owens

2009-03-07T20:22:00.000-08:00

Terrell Owens has had an interesting couple of days. He was released early Thursday by the Cowboys, who went 9-7 last season and blamed Owens for the team's chemistry issues. He hit the market and now, less than 3 days later, he is a member of the Buffalo Bills.

The Cowboys move to cut him is a head scratching one. I'm not saying that Owens wasn't to blame for a lot of the Cowboys' problems, but he is still an elite receiver and, given how fast he came off the market after the Cowboys released him, if the Cowboys were to try and trade Owens instead of releasing him, they could have gotten at least a 3rd rounder in return.

They also wouldn't have had to take a 9 million dollar cap hit if they had traded him, which will hurt their chances of resigning DeMarcus Ware, their most important defensive player. Ware, who had 20 sacks last season, will be a free agent after the 2009 season if the Cowboys cannot reach an agreement with him. Ware is expected to command a contract worth more than the deal Jared Allen signed last off season, which was 6 year 74 million. The Cowboys could end up having to pay Ware more than 14 million a season, and releasing Owens actually hurt their ability to do so.

This is the 2nd head scratching move by the Cowboys this off season, the third if you count giving Roy Williams away for free without trying to get compensation first, though I don't think the market would have been huge for him. The Cowboys also traded Anthony Henry for Jon Kitna. That move did not make any sense. Trading for Kitna saves them no money. The Cowboys did need a backup quarterback, but you should never trade for a backup, especially if you have to give up a proven starter like Anthony Henry.

What makes this worse is the fact that the market this off season is full of backup quarterbacks. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Byron Leftwich, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Gus Frerotte, Chris Simms, and Dan Orlovsky either were or still are all free agents this off season. It’s not like Kitna is that much better than any of them, especially when you consider Kitna's age, 36. Now the Cowboys have major holes at cornerback. With Adam Jones gone as well, they need to start 2nd year corner Mike Jenkins, who might not pan out right away. They also lack depth behind Jenkins and will have to address that either through the draft, where they have very few picks, or through free agency, where they are low on cap room if they want to keep Ware in town.

On a separate note, I applaud the Lions' front office for making the Henry-Kitna swap. Jon Kitna was serving no use to them. Even if the Lions do not draft a quarterback at some point in the draft, highly unlikely, they were still planning on going with Daunte Culpepper at quarterback, with Drew Stanton as the backup. Kitna was likely going to be released, but instead they got some compensation for him, which is more than I can say for the Cowboys in the cases of Roy Williams and Terrell Owens. Anthony Henry can be a solid starter in a secondary that badly needs it. They couldn't have been any worse than the last regime in Detroit, but so far, this new regime has done a good job, especially when you consider how the ripped off the Cowboys when they traded Roy Williams (the receiver) to the Dallas for a 1st and 3rd rounder. Maybe the Cowboys should take a page out of Detroit's book. How ironic.

Owens' decision to sign with the Bills was also a head scratching one. It doesn't seem like the right fit. Owens likes getting thrown the football, playing with accomplished, established quarterbacks, winning, and playing in front of a large crowd.

In Buffalo, Owens will have to contend with Lee Evans to get the football. Evans has been targeted at least 100 times in each of the last 3 seasons.

Owens' quarterback will be Trent Edwards. If Owens got annoyed with Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo, imagine what will happen with Edwards. Edwards' quarterback rating of 85.6 last season is nothing but average. If you think that's bad, what happens when Edwards gets hurt. In 2 pro seasons, Edwards has missed 8 games. If he gets hurt again, Ryan Fitzpatrick takes over. In 13 starts last season for Cincinnati, in relief of the injured Carson Palmer, Fitzpatrick had a quarterback rating of 70.0 which is mediocre at best, especially when you consider the fact that he was playing with a great set of wideouts in Chad “Ocho Cinco” Johnson, TJ Houshmanzadeh, Chris Henry, as well as other young, promising talents like Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell. Simpson and Caldwell were both taken in the first 3 rounds of the 2008 NFL Draft, Simpson in the 2nd, Caldwell in the 3rd.

The Bills have one winning season since 1999. Unless their defense can stay healthy all year, they are going to have trouble getting a winning season this season as well. The Bills will play the AFC South and the NFC South next year, as well as every other last place AFC team. Their schedule, in no particular order, will look like this: New England (x2), Miami (x2), NY Jets (x2), Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston, Oakland, Cleveland, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans. With the exception of Oakland and Cleveland, there are no easy games on that schedule. They are going to have a tough time winning more than 8 games next year, especially if Marshawn Lynch's legal troubles get the best of him.

The Bills' are having so much trouble selling tickets to their games that they are considering moving the team to Toronto. When your team is looking to move to Canada for a bigger market, there is something wrong. Only the Dolphins and Lions had worse attendance in terms of percent of seats sold. That's not something Owens is going to like. What fun is it to showboat in the end zone if you look up and see a lot of empty seats?

In conclusion, the Cowboys' decision to release Terrell Owens without trying to trade him and get compensation first was a bad move, as was Owens' decision to sign, less than 3 days later with a team where he will have competition for the ball, have to play with an average quarterback, which by Owens' standards is completely subpar, have a very slim chance at making the playoffs, and have to play in front of a lesser crowd in small market Buffalo. If Owens had waited, he might have gotten offers from Washington, San Francisco, or even Miami. Those are all teams that Owens would have fit better with and where he would have been able to win more games.

However, there are some positives with Owens with this signing. Its a one year deal. If he plays well and shuts up this season, and whether or not he does that will show me whether he is a shrewd business man or a complete egotistical idiot, he will have a chance, in the 2010 off season, to cash in with big money, with a big team. We'll see how this plays out.

Top 100 NFL Draft Prospects

2009-03-05T20:03:00.001-08:00

()= Previous ranking
1. QB Matt Stafford- Georgia (1)
2. OLB/MLB Aaron Curry- Wake Forest (4)
3. WR Michael Crabtree- Texas Tech (2)
4. OT Jason Smith- Baylor (13)
5. OT Eugene Monroe- Virginia (5)
6. DE/OLB Brian Orakpo- Texas (8 )
7. DT BJ Raji- Boston College (7)
8. DE/OLB Everette Brown- Florida State (6)
9. OT Michael Oher- Mississippi (16)
10. OT Andre Smith- Alabama (3)
11. QB Mark Sanchez- USC (12)
12. RB Chris Wells- Ohio State (11)
13. MLB Rey Maualuga- USC (9)
14. CB Vontae Davis- Illinois (17)
15. CB/FS Malcolm Jenkins- Ohio State (10)
16. DT/DE Peria Jerry- Mississippi (42)
17. DE/OLB Michael Johnson- Georgia Tech (14)
18. RB Knowshon Moreno- Georgia (19)
19. OLB Brian Cushing- USC (25)
20. WR Hakeem Nicks- North Carolina (34)
21. DE/DT Tyson Jackson- LSU (50)
22. C Alex Mack- California (30)
23. OLB/DE Aaron Maybin- Penn State (22)
24. WR Jeremy Maclin- Missouri (15)
25. OT William Beatty- Connecticut (45)
26. WR Kenny Britt- Rutgers (40)
27. OG/OT Duke Robinson- Oklahoma (24)
28. FS/CB Sean Smith- Utah (62)
29. TE Brandon Pettigrew- Oklahoma (28 )
30. OLB Clay Matthews- USC (49)
31. WR Darrius Heyward Bey- Maryland (20)
32. WR/RB Percy Harvin- Florida (26)
33. DE/OLB Larry English- Northern Illinois (35)
34. QB Josh Freeman- Kansas State (33)
35. RB LeSean McCoy- Pittsburgh (32)
36. OT Eben Britton- Arizona (23)
37. CB DJ Moore- Vanderbilt (29)
38. OLB/DE Clint Sintim- Virginia (27)
39. C/OG Max Unger- Oregon (44)
40. FS Louis Delmas- Western Michigan (38 )
41. DT Evander Hood- Missouri (71)
42. SS William Moore- Missouri (21)
43. MLB James Laurinaitis- Ohio State (18 )
44. CB Darius Butler- Connecticut (48 )
45. SS Patrick Chung- Oregon (37)
46. DE/OLB Connor Barwin- Cincinnati (52)
47. RB Donald Brown- Connecticut (46)
48. DT Ron Brace- Boston College (58 )
49. OT Jamon Meredith- South Carolina (82)
50. TE Jared Cook- South Carolina (53)
51. DE Robert Ayers- Tennessee (NR)
52. CB/FS Victor Harris- Virginia Tech (39)
53. FS Rashad Johnson- Alabama (56)
54. DT/DE Fili Moala- USC (31)
55. DE Paul Kruger- Utah (43)
56. OT Phil Loadholt- Oklahoma (36)
57. DT Sen’Derrick Marks- Auburn (41)
58. CB Alphonso Smith- Wake Forest (55)
59. C Jonathan Luigs- Arkansas (65)
60. WR Brian Robiskie- Ohio State (72)
61. TE Chase Coffman- Missouri (75)
62. MLB Jason Phillips- TCU (NR)
63. DE/DT Jarron Gilbert- San Jose State (NR)
64. OG Andy Levitre- Oregon State (83)
65. OT Fenuki Tupou- Oregon (70)
66. OG/OT Herman Johnson- LSU (47)
67. QB/RB/WR Pat White- West Virginia (NR)
68. DT Chris Baker- Hampton (81)
69. CB Mike Mickens- Cincinnati (54)
70. C Eric Wood- Louisville (NR)
71. WR Juaquin Iglesias- Oklahoma (57)
72. OLB/MLB Gerald McGrath- Southern Mississippi (64)
73. CB Mark Parson- Ohio (68 )
74. OT Troy Kropog- Tulane (61)
75. SS Michael Hamlin- Clemson (91)
76. TE Travis Beckum- Wisconsin (NR)
77. WR Louis Murphy- Florida (80)
78. QB Nate Davis- Ball State (69)
79. DT Dorell Scott- Clemson (87)
80. C Antoine Caldwell- Alabama (76)
81. OLB Tyrone McKenzie- South Florida (59)
82. MLB Darry Beckwith- LSU (73)
83. OG Trevor Canfield- Cincinnati (89)
84. TE James Casey- Rice (86)
85. SS/OLB Nic Harris- Oklahoma (90)
86. FS Sherrod Martin- Troy State (100)
87. CB/FS Jairus Byrd- Oregon (60)
88. CB Captain Munnerlyn- South Carolina (99)
89. RB Shonn Greene- Iowa (51)
90. OT Xavier Fulton- Illinois (NR)
91. OG Kraig Urbik- Wisconsin (NR)
92. RB Javon Ringer- Michigan State (67)
93. CB Coye Francis- San Jose State (NR)
94. RB Rashad Jennings- Liberty (97)
95. DE Mitch King- Iowa (NR)
96. CB Asher Allen- Georgia (79)
97. C AQ Shipley- Penn State (NR)
98. SS Chris Clemons- Clemson (NR)
99. DT/DE Alex McGee- Purdue (NR)
100. DT Sammie Lee Hill- Stillman (NR)

Fixing the Lions

2009-02-22T12:25:00.000-08:00

It looks as if the still incompetent front office in Detroit is going to take Matt Stafford with the first overall pick, in an attempt to bring fans to the stadium and sell jerseys. However, football is about winning games. The team has way too many other issues to spend a #1 pick and 50-60 million dollars, probably 20-30 million guaranteed, to an quarterback, who, as all top prospect quarterbacks, has about as good of a chance of being Joey Harrington as he has of being Matt Ryan. Here's what front office should be thinking.

They should first try to trade down. That would have been a lot easier if Michael Crabtree hasn't gotten hurt. Now Crabtree's stock falls a little and teams like Seattle or Oakland no longer have the desire nor the need to move up to secure Crabtree. However, they still might be able to work out a deal to move the #1 overall pick.

Oakland would be the most likely trade partner as they have interest in Michael Crabtree and there is still only a slim chance Crabtree slips past Seattle at 4. San Francisco is a possibility too if they decide they want to move up to make sure they get either Matt Stafford or Mark Sanchez, but I don't see that happening. Oakland gets the #1 pick, and Detroit's pick from Dallas in the 3rd round. Detroit gets the #7 pick, Oakland's 2nd rounder, #40, and Oakland's 4th rounder.

Detroit's first priority at 7 should be linebacker Aaron Curry, but that's unlikely to happen, as he'll either go #3 to Kansas City or #5 to Cleveland. Detroit's next should look to take one of the top 3 tackles, Eugene Monroe, Jason Smith, or Michael Oher. Oher is the one likely to still be on the board at 7. If none of those 3 are available, defensive tackle BJ Raji should be Detroit's last resort.

At 20, Detroit should then look to take either defense, if they took a tackle ay 7, meaning either linebacker Brian Cushing, linebacker James Laurinaitis, or cornerback Darius Butler or, if they took defense at 7, take an offensive lineman such as Eben Britton, Duke Robinson, or William Beatty.

If Detroit cannot move the #1 pick, they should use the #1 on franchise left tackle Eugene Monroe and then at 20 look to take either Cushing or Laurinaitis or maybe Butler as a last resort, but I think cornerback should be saved for the #33 pick.

At #33, regardless of whether or not the #1 pick was traded, a cornerback should be taken. This is the point in the draft where cornerbacks are very deep and the Lions' secondary was awful last year. Darius Butler is the best option, but they could also take DJ Moore, or Alphonso Smith.

If Detroit gets #40 from Oakland, that pick should be used on Ron Brace. He is the type of guy they need for their system. Shaun Rogers was excellent in their system before they let him go and Brace looks like he could be the same type of player.

Detroit's #65 pick, the 1st in the 3rd round should be traded to Cleveland for Derek Anderson, if Detroit no longer has Dallas' 3rd round pick, as it was sent back to Oakland in the earlier mentioned deal. If the Oakland deal never got done, Detroit should send Dallas' pick to Cleveland for Derek Anderson, along with a 5th rounder. Detroit needs a quarterback, but there is no need to use a first rounder on Matt Stafford or trade a first rounder for Matt Cassel. Derek Anderson is an excellent bounceback candidate this year. He had a great year in 2007 and can do the same again, at a cheap price.

If the Oakland deal was never made, meaning the Lions never took Brace at 40, and meaning that the Lions are still in possession of the #65 pick, they should use that pick on Brace. If he is not available, Fili Moala, Evander Hood, or Dorell Scott will work find in Detroit's defensive tackle hole.

Detroit will only have a 4th round pick if they make the deal with Oakland and that should be used on either a safety or an interior offensive lineman. The rest of the picks, 5th to 7th round, should be used on depth guys.

NFL Mock Draft #5 (2 rounds)

2009-01-31T16:48:00.000-08:00

First Round

1. Detroit Lions 0-16

There are two main arguments out there on the subject of who the Lions should pick #1. Some believe they should go the route that Miami did last year and draft an offensive lineman first and then a quarterback. Some believe they should go the route Atlanta did last year and draft a quarterback first and then an offensive lineman. However, there are two main reasons why I believe the Lions should go the route of the Falcons. First, while the Dolphins were a much better team this year, a lot of that had to do with the fact that they signed Chad Pennington in the off season. There is no guarantee that the Lions can do the same thing. Second, this is actually, if you can believe it, a weaker quarterback class than last year. Matt Stafford is at the top of the quarterback class this year, but with Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow returning to school, there isn’t a quarterback after Stafford than is a franchise quarterback. The Lions would be much better off taking the best quarterback available, Georgia QB Matt Stafford first, and then going offensive line at #20, the pick they acquired from Dallas. The offensive line class is much deeper than the quarterback class so if they want the best value for their picks, they should go quarterback and then offensive line, instead of vice versa.

2. St. Louis Rams 2-14

The Rams have huge problems with their offensive line. Marc Bulger is a frail injury prone quarterback, who takes a long time to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the line is frail injury prone Orlando Pace and on the right side of the line is a rotating door of frail injury prone right tackles. Eugene Monroe is the best offensive lineman available, but Alabama OT Andre Smith is right behind him and he fills more of a need for the Rams because he’s a natural right tackle. All of a sudden, if Pace can stay healthy, they have Pace and Smith at the tackle positions, which is a very strong duo to help keep Marc Bulger healthy, as he was in 2006 when the team won 10 games, or for a young quarterback to mature behind, if they decide to go that direction.

3. Kansas City Chiefs 2-14

The Chiefs plain and simply need pass rushers and because of that I can’t see this pick being anything other than a pass rusher because the Chiefs only had 10 sacks all year, a record low for an NFL team. What kind of pass rusher, either an end or a linebacker, they take is tough to tell at this point, because the Chiefs are currently a team without a coach. However, their GM Scott Pioli worked with the 3-4 for many years in New England so I have to guess that he will take a coach who uses the 3-4, which would mean that he would need a pass rushing linebacker to fit into the system. Florida State DE/OLB Everette Brown is the type of speed rushing linebacker that would fit into the team’s system and help them get more than 10 sacks next season. Brown had 13.5 sacks by himself last season. If Pioli decides to go with a 4-3 coach, he’s going to draft a pass rushing end in which case this pick would likely be Texas’s Brian Orakpo, but for now I have to assume that the people behind this selection will be drafting for a 3-4.

4. Seattle Seahawks 4-12

Matt Hasselbeck is back, I don’t know why though. Every time he looks up to pass, there’s no one there. It is no longer at the point where they are taking random wide receivers and lining them up like it was earlier in the season, however, his top 2 options are Bobby Engram, 35 years old and counting, and Deion Branch, who hasn’t been healthy since 2005. After them, it gets even worse as Koren Robinson, Jordan Dent, and Courtney Taylor prove week after week that they just can’t catch the football. With Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree still in the board, they need to take him. He might be the most athletically gifted wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson, and that’s saying something.

5. Cleveland Browns 4-12

The Browns’ defense was miserable last season, 26th in terms of yards per game allowed, so they can go the route of best defensive player available. Wake Forest OLB/MLB Aaron Curry is that player. Willie McGinest just turned 37 and had an awful season last year and isn’t going to be much better next season. Alex Hall was decent in limited action last year, but Curry would be a huge upgrade. If Hall proves to be the real thing, they can shift Hall to defensive end, or shift Curry into the middle where he’d be an upgrade over Andra Davis.

6. Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1

The Bengals offensive line did a lot better late in the season, helping to propel the team to a relatively amazing 4-3-1 record over their last 8 games. However, they still allowed 50 sacks last season helping Ryan Fitzpatrick’s, who once graduated from Harvard, IQ drop every game he played. Carson Palmer is going to be back next season, but if they want to keep him upright for the entire season, they need to get better pass protection. Luckily for them, Virginia OT Eugene Monroe is still available here.

7. Oakland Raiders 5-11

For the purposes of this pick, I will pretend I’m Al Davis (man, am I ugly!). I could scout like a normal owner, or I could just look at the 40 times. It’s much easier and look where it’s gotten me so far. Let’s see, decent 40, decent 40, decent 40, 4.31! I don’t care who that guy is but draft him right now, I don’t care if it’s the combine, draft him, give him millions and millions of dollars. That player is speedy Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin, who ran a 4.31 in the preseason and could be even faster at the combine. In all seriousness, the Raiders need to go some playmaking receivers for JaMarcus Russell and Maclin might make a little sense here, even though the Raiders desperately need offensive linemen. No matter how much sense the pick makes, I think it will be what Davis and the Raiders do. If Percy Harvin runs a faster 40, he could be the choice here, but for now I’m going to say that it’ll be Maclin.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11

David Garrard struggled last season throwing 13 picks after throwing only 3 the season before. I don’t know if this explains all of his struggles, but he was sacked 42 times last season. The Jaguars desperately need an upgrade at left tackle of Khalif Barnes, who is probably one of the worst starting left tackles in the league last season. Baylor OT Jason Smith would be a huge upgrade there and help Garrard obtain close to 2007 form.

9. Green Bay Packers 6-10

The Packers were one of the worst run defenses in the league last year, 26th in the league with 4.6 yards per carry allowed. That probably had something to do with the team’s lack of a run stopping defense tackle. Boston College DT BJ Raji has taken advantage of Terrence Cody’s decision to return to school, along with an amazing performance at the Senior Bowl to raise his stock tremendously. If he is still here at this point, Green Bay will take the giant run stopper in a heartbeat.

10. San Francisco 49ers 7-9

This continues to be the most interesting and difficult spot in the first round to predict. The Niners could go so many different ways with this pick. They need a wide receiver, but with Crabtree and Maclin already off of the board, I don’t think that their conservative coach is going to reach for Percy Harvin or Darrius Heyward Bey, especially when the wide receiver class is deep enough for them to take one in the 2nd round. Shaun Hill is a decent quarterback, but not great, so Mark Sanchez could be a possibility. However, with a conservative coach in place, in Mike Singletary who really likes Shaun Hill, I doubt that will be the selection. They have defensive needs, especially for 3-4 linebackers, but Everette Brown is off of the board, so I doubt they’ll reach for Aaron Maybin. Brian Orakpo is a good defensive end, but he’d be too small to fill their need in the 3-4. BJ Raji is off the board, so no defensive tackle is going to be taken here, which leaves the secondary. Safety is the biggest need, but there isn’t a top 10 safety prospect in this draft class. Their cornerbacks were below average last year and shouldn’t be much better this year, especially with Walt Harris set to turn 35 before the season starts and no depth behind him. They need a starting cornerback for the future and Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins could serve in that role.

11. Buffalo Bills 7-9

The Bills decline this season is a head scratching one but I think it can be credited to their decline in pass defense. Their corners are fine, in fact they used a first rounder on Leodis McKlevin last year and he has done fine. However, with Aaron Schobel, injury and age, possibly done as an elite pass rusher for his career, they need to get a #1 pass rusher quick. Quarterbacks are getting too much time in the pocket against them. Texas DE Brian Orakpo could help fill that need quickly.

12. Denver Broncos 8-8

The Broncos gave 5 yards per carry to opposing running back this season. They are very vulnerable down the middle, with a combination of Marcus Thomas, Dewayne Robertson, and Nate Webster playing on the inside of their defense at defensive tackle and middle linebacker. They’ll probably go with the best player available at either of those two positions. Since they recently hired Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator, they will probably move to a 3-4, putting them in dire need for linebackers. USC MLB Rey Maualuga has already slipped some and I can’t see him slipping much further than Denver at #12.

13. Washington Redskins 8-8

The Redskins traded for Jason Taylor this off season with the intention that he would solidify their weak pass rush for a few years to come. However, he got hurt and might not play again, because he’s 34 years old. Even if he comes back next year, their pass rush could stand to be upgraded. In my mind Michael Johnson is the best pass rusher available, but Penn State DE/OLB Aaron Maybin makes more sense for the ‘Skins here because he can play outside linebacker, another weakness, with Marcus Washington likely to be cut as a cap causality, until Taylor calls it quits, if he doesn’t this off season.

14. New Orleans Saints 8-8

The Saints defense was awful enough last season for them to take the best defensive player available. That player would be Ohio State MLB James Laurinaitis. Linebackers are one of their biggest needs. Laurinaitis could play middle linebacker for them if Jonathan Vilma leaves as a free agent, or if Vilma returns, either he or Laurinaitis could move to the outside. The Saints defense is way too awful, ranking 26th in the league in terms of points per game allowed and making sure that Drew Brees’ nearly record setting season translated to only 8 wins, for them to pass up on Laurinaitis, the college stud from Ohio State.

15. Houston Texans 8-8

The Texans need help almost everywhere on defense. Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are decent, but the defense ranked 27th in the league in points per game allowed, to cancel out their deadly offense. Defensive line is probably the most likely, seeing as that’s something that the Texans always seem to draft when they have holes there. They could use an upgrade over Anthony Weaver at end. Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson's stock is rising right now, so he might not be available in this spot, but if he is, they need to take him. He was one of college football’s best pass rushers last season. Take away Mario Williams’ 13 sacks, this team only had 12 all last season. Anthony Weaver, who started alongside Williams all season, had 0. He did not record a single sack all season. You’d think a quarterback would slip near him and he’d get credit for it, but he didn’t even do that. No sacks. He needs to be replaced.

16. San Diego Chargers 9-9

LaDainian Tomlinson might be finished as a productive every down back in this league. Darren Sproles is a free agent and could leave for more money somewhere else. Even if he doesn’t, I still don’t like Sproles as an every down back. He proved in the Pittsburgh game that he isn’t big or consistent enough to do that. I like him in the Reggie Bush role, kick returner/punt returner/change of pace back/slot receiver. Speed doesn’t automatically make you a good running back. However, if you’re fast, there is something you can do to help a football team. Sproles just isn’t a running back. Since neither he or LT seem capable of being every down backs for a title contending team, and since the Chargers have no other needs, they should take Ohio State RB Chris Wells here and trade LT while he still has some value. If they wait a season, they might have to flat out release him, but now they might even be able to get a 2nd round pick for him, or at least a 3rd. Wells can take over right away as a starting running back, with Sproles in the Reggie Bush role. This might be able to become a deadly offense once again next season.

17. NY Jets 9-7

The popular consensus here is that, with a new coaching staff coming in, that the Jets will take a quarterback, for whenever Brett Favre retires, especially if Mark Sanchez is still on the board and possibly even if he is not. However, new head coach Rex Ryan is a defensive guy, which means he’s going to try to patch up any glaring defensive holes first. Their secondary, which gave up the 4th most yards in the league this season, would count as a glaring hole. Illinois CB Vontae Davis is still available and it would surprise me if the Jets didn’t take him. Darrelle Revis is a good #1 corner, but Dwight Lowery makes more sense as a nickel corner, rather than the #2 starter. Davis would fill that role and help patch up the team’s only defensive hole, other than possibly the need for another safety. They are going to get a chance to take a quarterback in the later rounds.

18. Chicago Bears 9-7

The Bears biggest need right now is getting better pass rushers to put pressure on the quarterback. They have a strong steady defense, deadly against the run, but their lack of a pass rush put their pass defense in the bottom half in the majority of the major pass defense categories. However, due to underclassmen like Greg Hardy, George Selvie, and Greg Middleton returning to school, there isn’t one that merits selection here. Rather than reaching for Tyson Jackson, the Bears should focus on other needs. The Bears got so desperate for wide receivers last year that they converted Devin Hester. That didn’t work as Devin Hester couldn’t balance being both a kick returner and wide receiver, ending up being mediocre at both. They need to draft a receiver so they can keep Hester in the slot and on special teams. Maryland WR Darrius Heyward Bey is the type of athlete they need to add to their receiving core. He didn’t have a great year last year, but he’s 6-3 and runs a 4.32 40. He’s also an extremely hard worker so I see no reason why he can’t grow into the future #1 option of the Bears.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7

Rule of thumb, a new coaching regime almost always takes a new quarterback in their first draft, somewhere in the first 3 rounds, unless the team already has an established player at that position. With Jeff Garcia, who was a Jon Gruden guy, a free agent this off season and not likely to return, they shouldn’t hesitate to take one here, especially since they don’t have any other glaring needs. USC QB Mark Sanchez has probably slipped too far, so Tampa should be thrilled to get him to be their signal caller.

20. Detroit Lions 0-16 (via DAL)

The Lions have defensive issues, but they should postpone those until the 2nd round. They should really look to follow Atlanta’s model from last off season. I already have them taking their franchise quarterback in Matt Stafford, now they need a franchise left tackle. Mississippi OT Michael Oher is long overdue to be drafted. He is a natural left tackle, which would allow them to move Jeff Backus inside to guard where he belongs and successfully upgrade two positions at once. In an ironic turn of events, the guy I considered putting #1 about a month ago, is now available at #20, due to slipping stock at the senior bowl and a lack of need for offensive tackles in the #11-19 range.

21. Philadelphia Eagles 11-7-1

The Eagles offensive line was mediocre last season, especially for an Andy Reid team. It could get worse this off season as Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan are both free agents. Even if they do return, they still need an offensive tackle here. Runyan is 35 and Thomas 34. They aren’t going to be around forever even if they do resign. Eben Britton is the best offensive tackle available, but looking at the trends, 310 pound Eben Britton might not be big enough for Andy Reid’s taste. Reid’s offensive line doesn’t have a single starter weighing less than 321 pounds, including 4 players over 330. This is no coincidence. It may be that Reid feels bigger offensive linemen are better. It may be that surrounding himself with bigger offensive linemen helps him feel better about his own weight problems. I don’t know, but I know that if given the choice between 310 Britton and 350 pound Oklahoma OT Phil Loadholt, Reid is going to take Loadholt, even if he’s a little bit lower rated of a prospect. Loadholt is still a great offensive tackle that can help this line out in the future.

22. Minnesota Vikings 10-7

The Vikings could take a quarterback here. Josh Freeman is still on the board and he could be propelled into the first round with his big arm the way Joe Flacco was last season. However, Brad Childress is still coaching. He still believes in Tavaris Jackson enough to give him another shot, or at least enough to wait until the 2nd round to take a quarterback. He might take a quarterback later in the draft, but he’s not going to take one here. The team has a huge hole at right tackle that they should look to fill here. Arizona OT Eben Britton is still available. He can play on the right side and help protect Jackson as he tries to prove he is in fact a capable quarterback (somehow I’m skeptical). Nevertheless, this pick is going to be an offensive lineman as long as Britton is available and Childress is head coach.

23. New England Patriots 11-5

The Pats desperately need help at corner, but the top 2 corners are gone and Bill Belicheck has never been one to reach for cornerbacks. Rodney Harrison is probably done; all he needs to do is submit his retirement. The team needs a long term strong safety replacement for him. Luckily, Belicheck won’t have to reach to grab his replacement as Missouri SS William Moore is a solid value pick and replacement here. He’s probably better against the pass than Harrison would have been, since Harrison is in his mid 30s, so he’d help a secondary that desperately needs it, after ranking 25th in the league in terms of passing yards per attempt allowed.

24. Atlanta Falcons 11-6

Matt Ryan won Rookie of the Year and 11 games this season, despite the fact that his starting tight end was Justin Pelle, who caught 15 balls all season. Imagine how good the young quarterback would be if he had an athletic tight end to help him, such as Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew. As Dustin Keller proved this season, rookie tight ends can still make an impact, as Keller caught 48 balls for 535 yards and was Brett Favre’s favorite target late in the season. Pettigrew can have a similar year, which would help out the Falcons tremendously moving forward.

25. Miami Dolphins 11-6

Bill Parcells likes linebackers, especially ones who were well coached in college. Brian Cushing fits that mold. He went to USC and could help the Dolphins current holes at linebacker, as well as be an eventually replacement for Joey Porter. However, Bill Parcells isn’t stupid. He knows his team played an unbelievably easy schedule this year and, despite the fact that they didn’t really play that many top quarterbacks, they looked like one of the worst pass defenses every week. He knows his team is going to have to play a tough schedule next year, including games against Big Ben and Pittsburgh, Peyton Manning and the Colts, Tom Brady and the Patriots, twice, and Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Having Will Allen as your top corner isn’t going to cut it. Vanderbilt CB DJ Moore is going to be able to add some fire to the defensive backfield next year and for years to come. Remember, this team is still a work in progress, a rebuilding project that just happened to win the division last year. They still need to focus on the future and they can’t go into the future without good cornerbacks.

26. Baltimore Ravens 13-6

The Ravens are in danger of losing 3 of their 4 starting linebackers to free agency. I’m not saying that all 3 would leave, but even losing one would make this team’s strength, their run defense, way less formidable and hurt the team greatly. They need to take a linebacker in anticipation of losing one of theirs. Brian Cushing is probably the best linebacker available, but I think they’ll go with Virginia OLB/DE Clint Sintim instead. Sintim is a better fit because he could move to end for them if all three linebackers return and also because he is a better pass rusher, and this team’s pass rush was lacking at times last season.

27. Indianapolis Colts 12-5

The Colts’ biggest need is at defensive tackle, but they lost in the first round to the Chargers because they couldn’t run the football. Joseph Addai might be back to full strength next season. He might not. They shouldn’t take any chances, especially since they don’t have any glaring needs and because Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno is still available here and he would be a great value selection. Imagine how deadly this offense could be with Peyton Manning and Knowshon Moreno, with the possibility of using powerful Joseph Addai in a limited role as a chance of pace back for the speedy Moreno.

28. Philadelphia Eagles 11-7-1 (via CAR)

The Eagles need a tight end, but Pettigrew has already been snatched up. There’s no need to reach when they can take a tight end in the 2nd round, so they should turn to other needs. Brian Dawkins is a fan favorite, but he is getting old and he was abused against the Cardinals. They need a replacement for him. Western Michigan FS Louis Delmas’s stock is soaring after the Senior Bowl, so he’d be a smart pick here.

29. NY Giants 12-5

Their defensive ends are amazing. They lost Michael Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to injury and they still rank 2nd in sacks. Justin Tuck is a pro bowler for sure, Mathias Kiwanuka might be too. However, with Kiwanuka moving up to defensive end, they lost a lot of the strength of their outside linebackers, forcing them to start Danny Clark, and since it looks like Kiwanuka is a defensive end to stay, they need to address that issue. Their outside linebackers have combined for four, count it four, interceptions, sacks, or forced fumbles this season. USC OLB Brian Cushing is the only outside linebacker, and therefore only player, who merits selection here. He could really breathe some life into their linebackers. Cushing would allow the Giants to take Danny Clark, who in his career, 138 games, has 15 combined sacks, INTs, and forced fumbles, and has been cut by the Raiders because Al Davis didn't even think he could play defense, and put him back where he belongs, special teams.

30. Tennessee Titans 13-4

Corner is a definite need for the Titans, but the more I think about it, the less I see them reaching for Victor Harris. Jeff Fisher would probably be the one making the pick for them, so I think this will be a front 4 player. Albert Haynesworth is a free agent after the season, and if he goes, so could their success. They need a safety net at defensive tackle. USC DT Fili Moala is the best and biggest defensive tackle remaining, which the Titans love. Even if Haynesworth returns, Moala and Haynesworth together on the inside of that line would make this team even more dangerous.

31. Arizona Cardinals 12-7*

The Cardinals have two major needs, running back and defensive end. However, they are well enough off at those two positions to wait until later in the draft if they have to, rather than reaching for Paul Kruger or LeSean McCoy. Since they don’t have any other needs, they can afford to draft the man scouts are calling the best offensive line prospect in the draft and the best center prospect in years, California C Alex Mack. Mack has slipped here just because there never is a need for centers, but he has the talent to be one of the top players in this draft class. The Cardinals signed Al Johnson to a big contract a while back, but he is injured and may never play again. They need an upgrade over Lyle Sendlien at center, especially since this is a power running team. With no glaring needs, they can afford to get a major upgrade at that position with Alex Mack.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers 15-3**

Their line was bad last year. Then they lose Alan Faneca and did not replace him. Now, Ben Roethlisberger gets sacked every time looks up seemingly and Willie Parker is struggling without that dominant run blocker to set up his cuts. They need to fix that; the fact that Oklahoma OG Duke Robinson is still available here only adds to that argument. Add in the fact that they have no other real needs and you have a team that needs to draft Duke Robinson.

Second round

33. Detroit Lions 0-16

This defense can only be described as comical. Opposing quarterbacks had an average 110.9 passer rating against them. If a quarterback had that for a season, it would be tied for 5th highest single season passer rating in the history of the game. The Lions weren’t playing Joe Montana, Steve Young, or Tom Brady every week. They playing were average NFL quarterbacks, in fact below average seeing as they played in the quarterback weak NFC North. And every week, they made those average guys looks like Hall of Famers. They need cornerback help now. Connecticut CB Darius Butler could be a part of the solution, plus, and I truly mean this, he can’t make them any worse.

34. Kansas City Chiefs 2-14

The Chiefs pass rush was so bad last year that they need to devote another pick to it. They got their pass rushing linebacker for the 3-4, which is the defense that they are likely to use next year. Now they need a big pass rushing end for the defensive line. 270 pound Northern Illinois DE Larry English should be able to fill that hole. He set Northern Illinois’ record for most sacks in a career and is big enough to play in the 3-4.

35. St. Louis Rams 2-14

The Rams’ potential starting strong safeties for next season are 34-year-old Corey Chavous and Todd Johnson, who sucks. They need an upgrade at this position and Oregon SS Patrick Chung should be able to be that upgrade easily.

36. Cleveland Browns 4-12

The Browns used Jamal Lewis last year as their feature big. Enough said. Lewis is 245 pounds, averaged 3.6 yards per carry, and is set to turn 30, which won’t help. They need a replacement badly and luckily for them, Pittsburgh RB LeSean McCoy is still available to be that feature back for them next season.

37. Seattle Seahawks 4-12

The Seahawks got their pass catcher last round. Now they need to fix that miserable secondary. Don’t believe that its miserable, Brian Russell was the starting free safety. That is the definition of miserable. Alabama FS Rashad Johnson should be able to step in immediately and make it less miserable.

38. Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1

The Bengals are probably going to lose TJ Houshmanzadeh in the off season as a free agent and possibility Chad Johnson too, if he demands a trade again. The Bengals need to get a good receiver for Carson Palmer. Florida RB/WR Percy Harvin is great value here. He can help out in the receiving game as well as in the backfield, where this team was one of the worst in the league. Their running backs were so bad that they broke Cedric Benson out of jail and used him.

39. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11

The Jaguars, despite having talented backs, were not a very good running team last season, after being one of the best in 2007. That is because their interior blocking got no push and sent the backs into a mound of people waiting to tackle them. Adding 380 pounds of pure run blocking ability in LSU OG Herman Johnson will definitely help.

40. Oakland Raiders 5-11

Al Davis might not be competent enough to run a pro football team, but he’s not blind. He should be able to see that JaMarcus Russell needs time in the pocket and that he just isn’t getting it right now because of that offensive line. Or maybe someone will make this pick for him while he’s in the can. I don’t know, but I have a feeling this will be an offensive lineman, such as Connecticut OT William Beatty.

41. Green Bay Packers 6-10

The Packers need depth at cornerback. They just don’t have it. Al Harris might be cut this off season as a cap casualty, but even if he isn’t, he is 34 years old. Charles Woodson had a good season last year, but the team is thinking of moving him to safety in the near future. They need some corner depth and with Virginia Tech CB Victor Harris still available, they should snatch him up.

42. Buffalo Bills 7-9

The Bills have enough of a need for a center, as well as enough of a lack of other needs, to take a center here. Oregon C Max Unger has the physical tools to be a first round, but because of his position, he won’t be a first round. The Bills can use him at center, or if they want, they can make him a tackle or guard.

43. San Francisco 49ers 7-9

Once again, the Niners have a conservative coach, so I can’t see this being a quarterback or receiver when their defensive line is the way it is. Mississippi DT/DE Peria Jerry is a great value pick here. He can play defensive end for them, because even at 290, more than big enough to play end in the 3-4, he can run a 40 in the 4.9s. He had 6 sacks last season, despite spending the majority of it at defensive tackle. He’ll provide life and versatility to a defensive line that needs it.

44. Miami (via WAS) 11-6

The Dolphins have two decent receivers in Davone Bess and Ted Ginn, but they need a big possession receiver, to compliment their two speed receivers. 6-2 North Carolina WR Hakeem Nicks should be able to fill that need for them. He could shoot up to the first round after the combine, but for now he should be available here for the taking.

45. NY Giants (via NO) 12-5

The Giants cannot bring back Plaxico Burress. They made a firm stand when suspending him that they did not employ those types of characters. However, Eli Manning needs a big receiver so badly that the team is considering bringing back Plax. They should look for a big receiver here, such as 6-4 Rutgers WR Kenny Britt, so that they don’t have to bring back Plax.

46. Houston Texans 8-8

The Texans took an end last round, but still have holes in their defensive line. Auburn DT Sen’Derrick Marks has really slipped here and should be a great addition to the front 4. With Mario Williams, Michael Johnson, Amobi Okoye, and Marks up front, they would have one of the best front 4s in the league and since all 4 of those players are so young, they would be a fixture for years to come. Their defense would be a few pieces away from being able to mirror what Tennessee does with their defense.

47. New England Patriots (via SD) 11-5

The Pats need help at both linebacker and corner back so the decision here is between Alphonso Smith and Clay Matthews. When given the choice between a corner and a linebacker, especially a well coached one like USC OLB Clay Matthews, Bill Belicheck is going to pick the linebacker.

48. Denver Broncos 8-8

The Broncos sent 7 different running backs to injured reserve last season. They need a durable every down back. Iowa RB Shonn Greene is consistent and sturdy, which the Broncos are going to love after what happened last season.

49. Chicago Bears 9-7

Because of the lack of available ends at #18, the Bears did not take an end in the first round. However, they still need one as no end had more than 6 sacks last year. They need more modern speed rushers, such as Utah DE Paul Kruger, who is expected to run a 40 in the 4.6s, had 7.5 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss last season.

50. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7

The Bucs got almost no production out of Ike Hillard and Joey Galloway last season, even though they were the projected starters. Luckily Antonio Bryant had a monster season and bailed them out. However, Bryant is a free agent and also has a history of being inconsistent, especially when not playing for money. The Bucs need another receiver such as Oklahoma WR Juaquin Iglesias.

51. Dallas Cowboys 9-7

The Cowboys will probably lose both Adam Jones and Roy Williams this off season, putting them where they were last season, lacking in the secondary. Versatile Utah CB/FS/SS Sean Smith should help out wherever they need him next season, which is going to be helpful.

52. NY Jets 9-7

The Jets don’t know about Brett Favre’s future, but they do know he isn’t going to be playing very long. They need a long term signal caller, such as Kansas State QB Josh Freeman, who is a steal at this point.

53. Philadelphia Eagles 11-7-1

The Eagles slapped the franchise tag on LJ Smith last season. That was a mistake as he seemingly dropped every ball thrown to him this season. The Eagles won’t do that again (hopefully, though you never know with Andy Reid). They need a tight end for Donovan McNabb, or whoever is quarterback next season, though I believe it will be McNabb. South Carolina TE Jared Cook is the best tight end available and makes sense here.

54. Minnesota Vikings 10-7

The Vikings need depth at the cornerback position. Cincinnati CB Mike Mickens is a good value pick and makes sense here. He would be a good nickel cornerback and the kick returner that they lack right now.

55. Atlanta Falcons 11-6

It’s amazing what a good quarterback can do. He can mask all of your other weaknesses enough to win games. The Falcons won 11 games last season, despite the fact that Domonique Foxworth was their #1 corner. Still, Matt Ryan is only going to be able to mask it to a certain degree. If this team wants to make to next step, they need help at that position, such as Wake Forest CB Alphonso Smith.

56. Miami Dolphins 11-6

The Dolphins drafted a cornerback in the first round, but just one isn’t going to be enough for their poor secondary. They need another corner if they can get one and luckily for them Oregon CB Jairus Byrd is available at this point in the draft.

57. Baltimore Ravens 13-6

The Ravens need a cornerback, but unfortunately for them, the last 3 picks gobbled up all of the 2nd round caliber corners so instead of reaching for someone like Mark Parson, they should look to other needs. The Ravens’ defensive line needs some help. LSU DE/DT Tyson Jackson is still available here. He’d be a steal and really help the Ravens out. He’s the type of player they love, big, physical run stopper. He was also well coached at LSU.

58. New England Patriots 11-5

The Pats need corners, but same problem as the Ravens have, there aren’t any good ones here and, no matter how much they need a corner, Bill Belicheck is not going to reach for one. They have issues in the backfield. Laurence Maroney is the most talented back, but he’s inconsistent and injury prone. The rest of their backs are old and lack speed. They need to get that speedy homerun threat. Wyoming RB Devin Moore would serve as that homerun threat and also help in the return game, something they need. Moore is being compared to a poor man’s Felix Jones.

59. Carolina Panthers 12-5

Julius Peppers wants a chance of scenery. That doesn’t mean he’s gone, but they need to prepare in case he leaves as a free agent because that’s more likely than not at this point. Cincinnati DE Connor Barwin could be a suitable replacement. He’s a steal here. If Peppers does return, again not likely, Barwin could play left end, where he would be an upgrade over Tyler Brayton, who had a mediocre 4.5 sacks last season.

60. NY Giants 12-5

The Giants should be put in jail, because they’re about to make a steal. Connecticut RB Donald Brown has slipped due to the lack of need for running backs, as well as the need for different types of running backs. However, Brown is a player that the Giants can get here who is capable of being an every down back in the NFL. That will help the Giants because they could lose both Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward this off season.

61. Indianapolis Colts 12-5

The Colts ignored the need for a defensive tackle last round to take the steal that was Knowshon Moreno. However, they need a defensive tackle to help out their pathetic run defense. Ron Brace is a possibility, but the Colts aren’t all that fond of big defensive tackles. Missouri DT Evander Hood should fit the system better.

62. Tennessee Titans 13-4

The Titans have a need for middle linebackers. Southern Mississippi OLB/MLB Gerald McRath is the best middle linebacker available. However, he might not be big enough to play middle linebacker in the NFL. He might be able to get away with it in Tennessee’s system, but in case he doesn’t, the Titans have the option of moving him to outside linebacker, where they’ll soon need a replacement for Keith Bulluck.

63. Arizona Cardinals 12-7*

Imagine how good the Cardinals’ air attack would be if they had a tight end who was more than just a blocker. Leonard Pope caught just 9 passes all season. If they can add a playing making tight end into the mix, like Missouri TE Chase Coffman, to go with Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Steve Breaston, their passing game would be beyond amazing.

64. Pittsburgh Steelers 14-3**

The Steelers’ history includes a long line of great centers. That line has recently stopped, so the Steelers need to continue it with Arkansas C Jonathan Luigs. Luigs is a talented center that would be the best center prospect in most draft classes, but this year is overshadowed by Alex Mack and Max Unger.

*=projected Super Bowl loser
**=projected Super Bowl winner

Seriously, comments please, I worked my ass off on this, for very little pay. Your comments keep me going. Please comment.

Super Bowl Prediction

2009-01-31T10:44:00.000-08:00

Pittsburgh 31 Arizona 28

A lot has been made about Arizona's offense and Pittsburgh's defense, as it should seeing as both are among the greatest in the league in their respective categories, but those are essentially going to cancel out. What is going to determine this game is Pittsburgh's offense versus Arizona's defense. Both have been streaky this year, but Arizona's defense has had a knack for being really bad on occasions, such as against New England and against the Jets. Pittsburgh has a quarterback who has won a Super Bowl already and Arizona does not have that type of leader on the defense. Pittsburgh also is more prone to losing against teams that have good pass rushes and Arizona's was right in the middle of the pack. The game is going to be a high scoring one, but I think the fact that Roethlisberger is going to be able to keep up with Warner, who is playing against Pittsburgh's #1 ranked defense, along with Pittsburgh's superior running game is going to be able to boost the Steelers to their 2nd Super Bowl in 4 years.

NFL Draft Top 100 Prospects Big Board

2009-01-29T22:15:00.000-08:00

1. QB Matt Stafford (Georgia)
2. WR Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech)
3. OT Andre Smith (Alabama)
4. OLB/MLB Aaron Curry (Wake Forest)
5. OT Eugene Monroe (Virginia)
6. DE Everette Brown (Florida State)
7. DT BJ Raji (Boston College)
8. DE Brian Orakpo (Texas)
9. MLB Rey Maualuga (USC)
10. CB Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio State)
11. RB Chris Wells (Ohio State)
12. QB Mark Sanchez (USC)
13. OT Jason Smith (Baylor)
14. DE Michael Johnson (Georgia Tech)
15. WR Jeremy Maclin (Missouri)
16. OT Michael Oher (Mississippi)
17. CB Vontae Davis (Illinois)
18. MLB James Laurinaitis (Ohio State)
19. RB Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)
20. WR Darrius Heyward Bey (Missouri)
21. SS William Moore (Missouri)
22. DE/OLB Aaron Maybin (Penn State)
23. OT Eben Britton (Arizona)
24. OG/OT Duke Robinson (Oklahoma)
25. OLB Brian Cushing (USC)
26. RB/WR Percy Harvin (Florida)
27. OLB/DE Clint Sintim (Virginia)
28. TE Brandon Pettigrew (Oklahoma State)
29. CB DJ Moore (Vanderbilt)
30. C Alex Mack (California)
31. DT Fili Moala (USC)
32. RB LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh)
33. QB Josh Freeman (Kansas State)
34. WR Hakeem Nicks (North Carolina)
35. DE/OLB Larry English (Northern Illinois)
36. OT Phil Loadholt (Oklahoma)
37. SS Patrick Chung (Oregon)
38. FS Louis Delmas (Western Michigan)
39. CB Victor Harris (Virginia Tech)
40. WR Kenny Britt (Rutgers)
41. DT Sen’Derrick Marks (Auburn)
42. DT/DE Peria Jerry (Mississippi)
43. DE Paul Kruger (Cincinnati)
44. C Max Unger (Oregon)
45. OT William Beatty (Connecticut)
46. RB Donald Brown (Connecticut)
47. OG Herman Johnson (LSU)
48. CB Darius Butler (Connecticut)
49. OLB Clay Matthews (USC)
50. DE/DT Tyson Jackson (LSU)
51. RB Shonn Greene (Iowa)
52. DE Connor Barwin (Cincinnati)
53. TE Jared Cook (South Carolina)
54. CB Mike Mickens (Cincinnati)
55. CB Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest)
56. FS Rashad Johnson (Alabama)
57. WR Juaquin Iglesias (Oklahoma)
58. DT Ron Brace (Boston College)
59. OLB Tyrone McKenzie (South Florida)
60. CB Jairus Byrd (Oregon)
61. OT Troy Kropog (Tulane)
62. FS/SS/CB Sean Smith (Utah)
63. RB Devin Moore (Wyoming)
64. MLB/OLB Gerald McRath (Southern Mississippi)
65. C Jonathan Luigs (Arkansas)
66. OT Alex Boone (Ohio State)
67. RB Javon Ringer (Michigan State)
68. CB Mark Parson (Ohio)
69. QB Nate Davis (Ball State)
70. OT Fenuki Tupou (Oregon)
71. DT Evander Hood (Missouri)
72. WR Brian Robiskie (Ohio State)
73. MLB Darry Beckwith (LSU)
74. FS/CB Derek Pegues (Mississippi State)
75. TE Chase Coffman (Missouri)
76. C Antoine Caldwell (Alabama)
77. QB Rhett Bomar (Sam Houston State)
78. WR Derrick Williams (Penn State)
79. CB Asher Allen (Georgia)
80. WR Louis Murphy (Florida)
81. DT Chris Baker (Hampton)
82. OT Jamon Meredith (South Carolina)
83. OG Andy Levitre (Oregon State)
84. DE Matt Shaughnessy (Wisconsin)
85. SS/FS Emanuel Cook (South Carolina)
86. TE James Casey (Rice)
87. DT Dorell Scott (Clemson)
88. RB Jeremiah Johnson (Oregon)
89. OG Trevor Canfield (Cincinnati)
90. SS/OLB Nic Harris (Oklahoma)
91. SS Michael Hamlin (Clemson)
92. OLB Marcus Freeman (Ohio State)
93. CB Domonique Jackson (Jackson State)
94. CB DeAngelo Smith (Cincinnati)
95. DE Brandon Williams (Texas Tech)
96. OG Anthony Parker (Tennessee)
97. RB Rashad Johnson (Liberty)
98. WR Mohamed Massaquoi (Georgia)
99. CB Captain Munnerlyn (South Carolina)
100. FS/CB Sherrod Martin (Troy State)

NFL Mock Draft #4

2009-01-17T12:20:00.000-08:00

1. Detroit Lions 0-16

There are two main arguments out there on the subject of who the Lions should pick #1. Some believe they should go the route that Miami did last year and draft an offensive lineman first and then a quarterback. Some believe they should go the route Atlanta did last year and draft a quarterback first and then an offensive lineman. However, there are two main reasons why I believe the Lions should go the route of the Falcons. First, while the Dolphins were a much better team this year, a lot of that had to do with the fact that they signed Chad Pennington in the off season. There is no guarantee that the Lions can do the same thing. Second, this is actually, if you can believe it, a weaker quarterback class than last year. Matt Stafford is at the top of the quarterback class this year, but with Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow returning to school, there isn’t a quarterback after Stafford than is a franchise quarterback. The Lions would be much better off taking the best quarterback available, Georgia QB Matt Stafford first, and then going offensive line at #20, the pick they acquired from Dallas. The offensive line class is much deeper than the quarterback class so if they want the best value for their picks, they should go quarterback and then offensive line, instead of vice versa.

2. St. Louis Rams 2-14

The Rams have huge problems with their offensive line. Marc Bulger is a frail injury prone quarterback, who takes a long time to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the line is frail injury prone Orlando Pace and on the right side of the line is a rotating door of frail injury prone right tackles. Michael Oher is the best offensive lineman available, but Alabama OT Andre Smith is right behind him and he fills more of a need for the Rams because he’s a natural right tackle. All of a sudden, if Pace can stay healthy, they have Pace and Smith at the tackle positions, which is a very strong duo to help keep Marc Bulger healthy, as he was in 2006 when the team won 10 games, or for a young quarterback to mature behind, if they decide to go that direction.

3. Kansas City Chiefs 2-14

Imagine what it must be like to play quarterback against the Kansas City Chiefs. Drop back to pass, wait 20 seconds for the play to develop, oh there’s a little bit of pressure, finally, too bad I released the ball 15 seconds ago. The Chiefs have 10 sacks this season in 16 games. Jared Allen is gone and they need someone to lineup alongside Tamba Hali. Texas DE Brian Orakpo, one of college football’s most feared pass rushers, should help. He’ll take the pressure off of Hali, who had 7.5 sacks last season alongside Jared Allen, and solidify the pass rush from the other side.

4. Seattle Seahawks 4-12

Matt Hasselbeck is back, I don’t know why though. Every time he looks up to pass, there’s no one there. It is no longer at the point where they are taking random wide receivers and lining them up like it was earlier in the season, however, his top 2 options are Bobby Engram, 35 years old and counting, and Deion Branch, who hasn’t been healthy since 2005. After them, it gets even worse as Koren Robinson, Jordan Dent, and Courtney Taylor prove week after week that they just can’t catch the football. With Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree still in the board, they need to take him. He might be the most athletically gifted wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson, and that’s saying something.

5. Cleveland Browns 4-12

The Browns’ defense was miserable last season, 26th in terms of yards per game allowed, so they can go the route of best defensive player available. Wake Forest OLB/MLB Aaron Curry is that player. Willie McGinest just turned 37 and had an awful season last year and isn’t going to be much better next season. Alex Hall was decent in limited action last year, but Curry would be a huge upgrade. If Hall proves to be the real thing, they can shift Hall to defensive end, or shift Curry into the middle where he’d be an upgrade over Andra Davis.

6. Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1

The Bengals offensive line did a lot better late in the season, helping to propel the team to a relatively amazing 4-3-1 record over their last 8 games. However, they still allowed 50 sacks last season helping Ryan Fitzpatrick’s, who once graduated from Harvard, IQ drop every game he played. Carson Palmer is going to be back next season, but if they want to keep him upright for the entire season, they need to get better pass protection. Luckily for them, Ole Miss OT Michael Oher, who has been slipping down draft boards lately, is still available here.

7. Oakland Raiders 5-11

For the purposes of this pick, I will pretend I’m Al Davis (man, am I ugly!). I could scout like a normal owner, or I could just look at the 40 times. It’s much easier and look where it’s gotten me so far. Let’s see, decent 40, decent 40, decent 40, 4.31! I don’t care who that guy is but draft him right now, I don’t care if it’s only the combine, draft him, give him millions and millions of dollars. That player is speedy Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin, who ran a 4.31 in the preseason and could be even faster at the combine. In all seriousness, the Raiders need to go some playmaking receivers for JaMarcus Russell and Maclin might make a little sense here, even though the Raiders desperately need offensive linemen. No matter how much sense the pick makes, I think it will be what Davis and the Raiders do.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11

David Garrard struggled last season throwing 13 picks after throwing only 3 the season before. I don’t know if this explains all of his struggles, but he was sacked 42 times last season. The Jaguars desperately need an upgrade at left tackle of Khalif Barnes, who is probably one of the worst starting left tackles in the league last season. Virginia OT Eugene Monroe would be a huge upgrade there and help Garrard obtain close to 2007 form. He is also a good run blocker which would help their running game which seeming hit a wall (pun intended) last season.

9. Green Bay Packers 6-10

The Packers needed depth behind their age corners Charles Woodson and Al Harris last season and never got it. This season Al Harris got hurt and their lack of depth showed. Harris could be a cap penalty this off season, but even if he isn’t they still need depth at the cornerback position. Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins could start over 34-year-old Al Harris next season, or he could also backup and not have to be rushed into the starting role which might be best for him because cornerback is one of the toughest positions to learn how to play at an NFL level.

10. San Francisco 49ers 7-9

I originally liked the idea of the Niners drafting a quarterback, like Mark Sanchez, and having him sit a year behind Shaun Hill and become the future of the team in 2010. They could still do that, but Hill has played very well of late, so they can address one of their many other areas of need. Wide receiver is one of those, but with other needs and a conservative coach, they aren’t likely to reach for Darrius Heyward-Bey or Percy Harvin. They need a corner, but it might be too early for Vontae Davis, though having both Davis brothers, Vernon and Vontae, might be a nice story. However, something tells me Mike Singletary wouldn’t like Vernon’s brother either. Defensive line is a major need. Justin Smith got big bucks and hasn’t lived up to it. If they were to draft a defensive end, like Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson, some of the pressure would be taken off of Smith. Last year’s first round pick Kentawn Balmer could also move back to defensive tackle where he belongs, rather than play left end. That makes the most sense.

11. Buffalo Bills 7-9

The Bills decline this season is a head scratching one but I think it can be credited to their decline in pass defense. Their corners are fine, in fact they used a first rounder on Leodis McKlevin last year and he has done fine. However, with Aaron Schobel, injury and age, possibly done as an elite pass rusher for his career, they need to get a #1 pass rusher quick. Quarterbacks are getting too much time in the pocket against them. Penn State DE/OLB Aaron Maybin is the best pass rusher left on the board.

12. Denver Broncos 8-8

The Broncos gave 5 yards per carry to opposing running back this season. They are very vulnerable down the middle, with a combination of Marcus Thomas, Dewayne Robertson, and Nate Webster playing on the inside of their defense at defensive tackle and middle linebacker. They’ll probably go with the best player available at either of those two positions. Since they recently hired Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator, they will probably move to a 3-4, putting them in dire need for linebackers. USC MLB Rey Maualuga has already slipped some and I can’t see him slipping much further than Denver at #12.

13. Washington Redskins 8-8

The ‘Skins pass rush was awful this season after Jason Taylor, brought in to save the rush, got hurt. Taylor is going on 35 years old and not very healthy right now so they need someone to play end in case Taylor cannot. Unfortunately, Orakpo, Johnson, and Maybin are all off of the board at this point, so they should lose elsewhere for an end, maybe the 3rd round. Marcus Washington is likely to be cut as a cap causality so they could use a replacement for him. Virginia OLB/DE Clint Sintim would fill that hole for them. Brian Cushing might be the better linebacker here, but Sintim can play defensive end if Jason Taylor can’t come back strong next year. Cushing wouldn’t be able to do that. Sintim is probably the better pass rusher too, which is the Redskins’ biggest need.

14. New Orleans Saints 8-8

The Saints defense needs helps everywhere, most notably at outside linebacker, defensive end, and safety. Outside linebacker is out of the question, unfortunately, with Curry just going to Washington. Curry could have definitely helped them out a lot more. As for defensive end, Everette Brown is a possibility. However, Kevin Kaesviharn was starting at safety before he got injured. His replacement is going to be worse. That free safety position is a mess, and one that needs to be cleaned up quick otherwise teams will continue to beat them deep next season. They ranked 23rd against the pass in terms of yards per game and with mega talent Missouri FS William Moore on the board, they need to take him. He helps them more that Brown would.

15. Houston Texans 8-8

The Texans need help almost everywhere on defense. Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are decent, but the defense ranked 27th in the league in points per game allowed, to cancel out their deadly offense. Defensive line is probably the most likely, seeing as that’s something that the Texans always seem to draft when they have holes there. They could use an upgrade over Anthony Weaver at end. Florida State DE Everette Brown’s stock is rising right now, so he might not be available in this spot, but if he is, they need to take him. He was one of college football’s best pass rushers last season. Take away Mario Williams’ 13 sacks, this team only had 12 all last season. Anthony Weaver, who started alongside Williams all season, had 0. He did not record a single sack all season. You’d think a quarterback would slip near him and he’d get credit for it, but he didn’t even do that. No sacks. He needs to be replaced.

16. San Diego Chargers 9-9

LaDainian Tomlinson might be finished as a productive every down back in this league. Darren Sproles is a free agent and could leave for more money somewhere else. Even if he doesn’t, I still don’t like Sproles as an every down back. He proved in the Pittsburgh game that he isn’t big or consistent enough to do that. I like him in the Reggie Bush role, kick returner/punt returner/change of pace back/slot receiver. Speed doesn’t automatically make you a good running back. However, if you’re fast, there is something you can do to help a football team. Sproles just isn’t a running back. Since neither he or LT seem capable of being every down backs for a title contending team, and since the Chargers have no other needs, they should take Ohio State RB Chris Wells here and trade LT while he still has some value. If they wait a season, they might have to flat out release him, but now they might even be able to get a 2nd round pick for him, or at least a 3rd. Wells can take over right away as a starting running back, with Sproles in the Reggie Bush role. This might be able to become a deadly offense once again next season.

17. New York Jets 9-7

The Jets don’t have huge glaring needs, so they can draft best available here. That would be Ohio State MLB James Laurinaitis, a 3 time All-American. Their middle linebackers could stand to be upgraded, especially since both are 31 years old, and David Bowens isn’t having that good of a season to beginning with.

18. Chicago Bears 9-7

The Bears biggest need right now is getting better pass rushers to put pressure on the quarterback. They have a strong steady defense, deadly against the run, but their lack of a pass rush put their pass defense in the bottom half in the majority of the major pass defense categories. However, due to underclassmen like Greg Hardy, George Selvie, and Greg Middleton returning to school, there isn’t one that merits selection here. Rather than reaching for Tyson Jackson, the Bears should focus on other needs. The Bears got so desperate for wide receivers last year that they converted Devin Hester. That didn’t work as Devin Hester couldn’t balance being both a kick returner and wide receiver, ending up being mediocre at both. They need to draft a receiver so they can keep Hester in the slot and on special teams. Maryland WR Darrius Heyward Bey is the type of athlete they need to add to their receiving core. He didn’t have a great year last year, but he’s 6-3 and runs a 4.32 40. He’s also an extremely hard worker so I see no reason why he can’t grow into the future #1 option of the Bears.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7

When I first made this mock draft, I had Mark Sanchez going here. While writing the mock, Jon Gruden was fired so I had a change my pick. Sanchez likely would have gone here if Jon Gruden was still in charge and on his magical quest on find the perfect quarterback. However, with a new regime in town, I doubt they’ll take a signal caller, at least in the first round. Earnest Graham had a great 2007, but he was an injury risk in 2008, plus he just turned 29, which isn’t good for a running back. Cadillac Williams is probably never going to be Cadillac Williams again, even though his return is somewhat miraculous. Warrick Dunn can’t shoulder the load by himself next year if Graham and Williams get hurt or flat out can’t be effective. The reason they collapsed late in the season is because Dunn had to carry the load and their running game struggled. Dunn is 34 years old. If he couldn’t carry the load last year, he won’t be able to this year. They have some decent players at running back, but they need a feature back and with Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno still available, he should be the pick.

20. Detroit Lions (via DAL) 0-16

The Lions have defensive issues, but they should postpone those until the 2nd round. They should really look to follow Atlanta’s model from last off season. I already have them taking their franchise quarterback in Matt Stafford, now they need a franchise left tackle. Baylor OT Jason Smith is long overdue to be drafted. He is not a natural left tackle, but can certainly play there. This would allow them to move Jeff Backus inside to guard where he belongs and successfully upgrade two positions at once.

21. Philadelphia Eagles 11-6-1

The Eagles offensive line was mediocre last season, especially for an Andy Reid team. It could get worse this off season as Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan are both free agents. Even if they do return, they still need an offensive tackle here. Runyan is 35 and Thomas 34. They aren’t going to be around forever even if they do resign. Eben Britton is the best offensive tackle available, but looking at the trends, 310 pound Eben Britton might not be big enough for Andy Reid’s taste. Reid’s offensive line doesn’t have a single starter weighing less than 321 pounds, including 4 players over 330. This is no coincidence. It may be that Reid feels bigger offensive linemen are better. It may be that surrounding himself with bigger offensive linemen helps him feel better about his own weight problems. I don’t know, but I know that if given the choice between 310 Britton and 340 pound Oklahoma OT Phil Loadholt, Reid is going to take Loadholt, even if he’s a little bit lower rated of a prospect. Loadholt is still a great offensive tackle that can help this line out in the future.

22. Minnesota Vikings 10-7

The Vikings could take a quarterback here. Mark Sanchez is still on the board. However, Brad Childress is still coaching. He still believes in Tavaris Jackson enough to give him another shot. He might take a quarterback later in the draft, but he’s not going to take one here. The team has a huge hole at right tackle that they should look to fill here. Arizona OT Eben Britton is still available. He can play on the right side and help protect Jackson as he tries to prove he is in fact a capable quarterback (somehow I’m skeptical). Nevertheless, this pick is going to be an offensive lineman as long as Britton is available and Childress is head coach.

23. New England Patriots 11-5

The Patriots some how won 11 games this season despite the fact that their cornerback are awful. Ever since Asante Samuel left, Ellis Hobbs has been the #1 corner, and there really has been no legitimate #2 cornerback, with Belicheck using a weird rotation of Lewis Sander, Deltha O’Neal, and Jonathan Wilhite. Illinois CB Vontae Davis should be a top 5 or top 10 pick by potential, but he has slipped due to discipline problems. Davis has the potential to turn into that #1 corner, with Hobbs shifting back to the #2. Even if he does not reach his full potential, he is better than any corner they have other than Hobbs and better than any other corner available in the draft.

24. Atlanta Falcons 11-5

It’s amazing what good quarterbacks can do. Matt Ryan single handedly masked all of the Falcons other weaknesses that were so glaring last off season. However, just because he masked them, doesn’t mean they are gone, and they still have a huge hole right in the middle of their defense line at defensive tackle. Plugging that hole with 310 pound USC DT Fili Moala, once projected a top 10 pick, makes a lot of sense, especially since the Falcons are still giving up 4.9 yards per carry, good for 5th worst in the NFL.

25. Miami Dolphins 11-6

Bill Parcells likes linebackers, especially ones who were well coached in college. Brian Cushing fits that mold. He went to USC and could help the Dolphins current holes at linebacker, as well as be an eventually replacement for Joey Porter. However, Bill Parcells isn’t stupid. He knows his team played an unbelievably easy schedule this year and, despite the fact that they didn’t really play that many top quarterbacks, they looked like one of the worst pass defenses every week. He knows his team is going to have to play a tough schedule next year, including games against Big Ben and Pittsburgh, Peyton Manning and the Colts, Tom Brady and the Patriots, twice, and Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Having Will Allen as your top corner isn’t going to cut it. Vanderbilt CB DJ Moore is going to be able to add some fire to the defensive backfield next year and for years to come. Remember, this team is still a work in progress, a rebuilding project that just happened to win the division last year. They still need to focus on the future and they can’t go into the future without good cornerbacks.

26. Baltimore Ravens 13-5

What happened to Mark Clayton? Suddenly Joe Flacco's only option is 34-year-old Derrick Mason. They need a wide receiver to breathe some live into that receiving core. Florida RB/WR Percy Harvin isn’t a true wide receiver, but, as Miami proved with Ted Ginn, speed doesn’t need a position to help your team and Harvin, who is projected to run a 40 between 4.27 and 4.31 at the combine, has plenty of speed. He would provide the playmaker, either out of backfield or lining up at receiver, that Joe Flacco lacked this year. He could also play some wildcat and help on some reverses and in the return game.

27. Philadelphia Eagles (via CAR) 11-6-1

There were some rumors, last draft, that Philly might trade their pick to Cleveland for Kellen Winslow Jr. That never happened and they traded the pick for a first rounder this year and some lesser picks last year. Still, LJ Smith might be one of the worst starting tight ends in the league and now it appears he is on bad terms with Andy Reid and might not be brought back this off season. There are plenty of tight ends that have late first to early second round potential, but the one I think is best is Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew. He is a good receiving tight end, with the potential to be like Kellen Winslow or any other good receiving tight end. If Dustin Keller can go first round in 2008, Pettigrew can go first round in 2009.

28. Indianapolis Colts 12-5

They used to be able to stop the run. What happened? Even with Bob Sanders back they are still one of the worst run defenses in the league. They definitely need a defensive tackle. They were so desperate to get one at the trade deadline, they traded for Bills cast off John McCargo, before he failed his physical and the trade didn't go through. They are going to make a run at Albert Haynesworth this offseason, but that's no guarantee. The best defensive tackle available is questionable. BJ Raji, Sen'Derrick Marks, and Peria Jerry are all possibilities, but Auburn DT Sen'Derrick Marks fits the Colts system better and I think is the best of the three against the run.

29. New York Giants 13-4

The Giants showed late in the season that Eli Manning sucks without Plaxico Burress. It has gotten so bad that they are thinking of bringing him back next season while he is on trial. The Giants made a stand by suspending him and going back on that now would be something that the organization as a whole would have trouble recovering from. Instead of bringing back Plax, draft Rutgers WR Kenny Britt, a 6-5 receiver who plays similar to Plax. They might be able to get Britt when they draft, with New Orleans’ selection, in the 2nd round. However, they don’t want to risk it. Linebacker is a need for them and Brian Cushing would fit here, but they can get a linebacker next round. They might be able to make a selection that would cut their ties for Plax next round. They can do that here and they need to.

30. Tennessee Titans 13-4

Corner is a definite need for the Titans, but the more I think about it, the less I see them reaching for Victor Harris. Jeff Fisher would probably be the one making the pick for them, so I think this will be a front 4 player. Albert Haynesworth is a free agent after the season, and if he goes, so could their success. They need a safety net at defensive tackle. Boston College DT BJ Raji is the best and biggest defensive tackle remaining, which the Titans love. Even if Haynesworth returns, Raji and Haynesworth together on the inside of that line would make this team even more dangerous.

31. Arizona Cardinals 11-7*

The Cardinals have two major needs, running back and defensive end. However, they are well enough off at those two positions to wait until later in the draft if they have to, rather than reaching for Paul Kruger or LeSean McCoy. Since they don’t have any other needs, they can afford to draft the man scouts are calling the best offensive line prospect in the draft and the best center prospect in years, California C Alex Mack. Mack has slipped here just because there never is a need for centers, but he has the talent to be one of the top players in this draft class. The Cardinals signed Al Johnson to a big contract a while back, but he is injured and may never play again. They need an upgrade over Lyle Sendlien at center, especially since this is a power running team. With no glaring needs, they can afford to get a major upgrade at that position with Alex Mack.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers 14-3**

Their line was bad last year. Then they lose Alan Faneca and did not replace him. Now, Ben Roethlisberger gets sacked every time looks up seemingly and Willie Parker is struggling without that dominant run blocker to set up his cuts. They need to fix that; the fact that Oklahoma OG Duke Robinson is still available here only adds to that argument. Add in the fact that they have no other real needs and you have a team that needs to draft Duke Robinson.

*=my pick to win NFC
**=my pick to win AFC and Super Bowl

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

2009-01-17T07:58:00.001-08:00

Arizona 31 Philadelphia 27

I am about to break the two biggest rules of NFL game playoff picking. Don't pick against a team that beat the other team in the regular season, especially when said team destroyed the other in that game and the game was less than 2 months ago. The 2nd rule is not to pick the Cardinals. I'm breaking both. Brian Westbrook doesn't look quite right and with him goes the team. He goes down, so does the rest of the team. The Cardinals may have lost to the Eagles on the road earlier this season, but they were a completely different team for most of the season at home, where this game is being played. I'm chalking that Thanksgiving game up to being a fluke. The Cardinals are clicking at all the right moments right now. The Eagles just look like they are. All they have really done is barely beat Tavaris Jackson and then they had the Giants hand the game to them last week. They haven't looked as good as the Cardinals, who knocked out Matt Ryan and then stole the game and the ball from Jake Delhomme and the Panthers last week.

Pittsburgh 20 Baltimore 13

While Pittsburgh has no commanding victories over Baltimore this season and while historically the team who has lost the first 2 matchups have the advantage in the 3rd, I'm still taking them. Ben Roethlisbergr I trust to lead a team down field and score late, which is likely what will be necessary for someone to win this game. I do not trust Joe Flacco to do that. Baltimore also hasn't had a bye week since week 2. They are getting tired right now. This is a veteran team. A veteran team, playing this long without a rest, with a rookie quarterback, is probably not going to beat someone as complete as the Steelers. I pick the Steelers in a close one.

NFL Mock Draft #3

2009-01-01T21:52:00.000-08:00

Order now based on real NFL Draft order

1. Detroit Lions 0-16

If Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford comes out, the Lions need to take him. The Falcons proved this season, with Matt Ryan, that when you have a good quarterback, you can mask up a bunch of other holes, which the Lions, at 0-16, certainly have. If Bradford can do what Ryan did this year for the Falcons, and management can bring in some small name, but helpful free agents, like Atlanta did with Michael Turner, and the Lions can be smart with their 2nd first round pick, from Dallas, as Atlanta did when they took Sam Baker, the Lions could once again be a respectable team very quickly.

2. St. Louis Rams 2-14

The Rams have huge problems with their offensive line. Marc Bulger is a frail injury prone quarterback, who takes a long time to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the line is frail injury prone Orlando Pace and on the right side of the line is a rotating door of frail injury prone right tackles. Michael Oher is the best offensive lineman available, but Alabama OT Andre Smith is right behind him and he fills more of a need for the Rams because he’s a natural right tackle. All of a sudden, if Pace can stay healthy, they have Pace and Smith at the tackle positions, which is a very strong duo to help keep Marc Bulger healthy, as he was in 2006 when the team won 10 games, or for a young quarterback to mature behind, if they decide to go that direction.

3. Kansas City Chiefs 2-14

I’ve heard quarterback here, but Tyler Thigpen is too good and the rest of the team is too bad for the Chiefs to focus on that position early in the draft. Defensive end is clearly their biggest weakness, but they can still can a capable end in the 2nd round in this deep defensive end draft class. Ole Miss OT Michael Oher is the best player available here and their offensive line could use some work, giving up 37 sacks, 11th most in the league. He would be the franchise offensive tackle this team needs to protect Thigpen and he would also allow 2008 first round pick Brandan Albert to move back to his natural position, guard, thus upgrading two positions at once and solidifying the line for the future.

4. Seattle Seahawks 4-12

Matt Hasselbeck is back, I don’t know why though. Every time he looks up to pass, there’s no one there. It is no longer at the point where they are taking random wide receivers and lining them up like it was earlier in the season, however, his top 2 options are Bobby Engram, 35 years old and counting, and Deion Branch, who hasn’t been healthy since 2005. After them, it gets even worse as Koren Robinson, Jordan Dent, and Courtney Taylor, whose claim to fame is being named a Lindsey Hunter All-Star by Bill Simmons, prove week after week that they just can’t catch the football. With Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree still in the board, they need to take him. He might be the most athletically gifted wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson, and that’s saying something.

5. Cleveland Browns 4-12

The Browns biggest need might be running back, but that is a position that can be addressed later. With Texas DE Brian Orakpo available they need to take him to fix up their awful pass rush. They mustered only 17 sacks last year, 2nd worst in the league, behind the Chiefs, who set a league record for least sacks in a season. Brian Orakpo, who had 11.5 last season at Texas to become an elite draft prospect, should be able to fix that tremendously. Once their pass rush improve, or at least becomes existent, their 26th ranked pass defense should improve.

6. Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1

The Bengals’ offensive line is still awful and Carson Palmer is still going to take some hits when he returns next season. However, Palmer’s backup Ryan Fitzpatrick was only sacked 3 times in his final three games, all wins, after being sacked 35 times in his first 9 starts, which is improvement. With that, as well as the fact neither of the two top offensive tackles remaining on the board, the Bengals can wait to fix their offensive line, without fearing for Carson Palmer’s life. They can look at other needs. Cedric Benson had a good final 2 games this season, but I doubt he fits into their long terms plans which means they can take a running back here. Ohio native Ohio State RB Chris Wells is still available and makes a lot of sense. If Palmer comes back 100% next season and Wells continues to run the way he did in college, this could be a dangerous offense once again.

7. Oakland Raiders 5-11

Allow me to step into the shoes of Al Davis for this selection (man am I ugly!). Hmm, I like fast and I like USC. That 6-3 230 kid just ran a 4.4 40, and he goes to USC, draft him now. That kid is USC FS Taylor Mays, who is an athletic free of nature. With Michael Huff now officially a bust, Mays could be his replacement and hopefully be a little bit less of a bust. He doesn’t fit a need necessarily for the Raiders, but Al Davis is going to fall head over heels in love with him after the combine, so Mays is the pick. If a sane owner were running the show, this pick would have to be Eugene Monroe. This offensive line is awful. Unfortunately for Raider Nation, a sane owner is not running the show.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11

The Jaguars, as any 5-11 team, have a lot of needs. Interior linemen are much needed, but unless they want to draft Eugene Monroe and try to convert him into a guard, this is way too early to draft a guard or center. On the defense, interior linebackers are needed, with Mike Peterson on bad terms and a free agent this off season. However, the pass defense is still awful, ranking 30th in terms of yards per attempt. They tried to fix their pass defense with better pass rushers last off season, but that didn’t work. It’s gotten so bad that Drayton Florence has had to step in alongside Rashean Mathis. They need a long term cornerback to play alongside Mathis and who better than Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins. He’s the only cornerback worth taking here and he makes more sense for the Jags than Monroe or a linebacker like Rey Maualuga or James Laurinaitis.

9. Green Bay Packers 6-10

What the Packers like to do is take best available. While defensive line is their biggest need, I doubt they’ll reach here for an end like Michael Johnson, though that might not be a huge reach, or a defensive tackle like Terence Cody. Virginia OT Eugene Monroe is the best player available here and he can really be a help to the Packers. He can play both tackle and guard. Their tackles combine to be 63 years old and while their guards combine to only weigh 605 pounds. The 21-year-old 325 pound Monroe can help with both. Their offensive line is in the bottom half of the league in terms of sacks allowed, despite having the swift Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, and the bottom third in terms of rushing yards per carry, despite having both Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson at running back.

10. San Francisco 49ers 7-9

I started out liking the idea of the Niners drafting a quarterback of the future. Then Shaun Hill started playing well, and conservative coach Mike Singletary looked like he would return so I went with the idea of a defensive lineman. However, in the next mock, no defensive lineman merited selection here, with Michael Johnson already off the board, so I went quarterback once again. And wouldn’t you know it; I have to flip flop again because Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson is back on the board here this week. He can play left end to take the pressure off of Justin Smith on the right side and allow 2008 first round pick Kentawn Balmer to play defensive tackle once again. If Johnson is on the board, he’s the pick. If he isn’t, I think the pick is Stafford, even with a conservative coach and a decent quarterback already in place.

11. Buffalo Bills 7-9

The Bills decline this season is a head scratching one but I think it can be credited to their decline in pass defense. Their corners are fine, in fact they used a first rounder on Leodis McKlevin last year and he has done fine. However, with Aaron Schobel, injury and age, possibly done as an elite pass rusher for his career, they need to get a #1 pass rusher quick. Quarterbacks are getting too much time in the pocket against them. Penn State DE Aaron Maybin is the best pass rusher left on the board.

12. Denver Broncos 8-8

The Broncos gave 5 yards per carry to opposing running back this season. They are very vulnerable down the middle, with a combination of Marcus Thomas, Dewayne Robertson, and Nate Webster playing on the inside of their defense at defensive tackle and middle linebacker. They’ll probably go with the best player available at either of those two positions. USC MLB Rey Maualuga has already slipped some and I can’t see him slipping much further than Denver at #12.

13. Washington Redskins 8-8

The ‘Skins pass rush was awful this season after Jason Taylor, brought in to save the rush, got hurt. Taylor is going on 35 years old and not very healthy right now so they need someone to play end in case Taylor cannot. Unfortunately, Orakpo, Johnson, and Maybin are all off of the board at this point, so they should lose elsewhere for an end, maybe the 2nd round. Marcus Washington is likely to be cut as a cap causality so they could use a replacement for him. Wake Forest OLB Aaron Curry has slipped too far and shouldn’t slip past the ‘Skins.

14. New Orleans Saints 8-8

The Saints defense needs helps everywhere, most notably at outside linebacker, defensive end, and safety. Outside linebacker is out of the question, unfortunately, with Curry just going to Washington. Curry could have definitely helped them out a lot more. As for defensive end, Everette Brown is a possibility. However, Kevin Kaesviharn was starting at safety before he got injured. His replacement is going to be worse. That free safety position is a mess, and one that needs to be cleaned up quick otherwise teams will continue to beat them deep next season. They ranked 23rd against the pass in terms of yards per game and with mega talent Missouri FS William Moore on the board, they need to take him. He helps them more that Brown would.

15. Houston Texans 8-8

The Texans likely would have had their eyes on both Curry and Moore and now have to go elsewhere. Coach Gary Kubiak, historically, picks defensive lineman and with a few holes on their defensive line, that could be the direction they go in this year. That might mean a defensive end, as the Texans need an upgrade at left end over Anthony Weaver. However, instead of reaching for Everette Brown, they’d be wiser to take the best defensive lineman available, Alabama DT Terrence Cody. Defensive tackle isn’t their biggest need but it is a need, as Travis Johnson looked subpar at times. Pairing 350 pound Terrence Cody, along with 2006 first round pick Mario Williams and 2007 first round pick Amobi Okoye on the defensive line would give the Texans one of the best defensive lines in the game, which would help out tremendously a defense that ranked 27th in the league in terms of points per game allowed. Okoye and Cody could be Houston’s own version of Minnesota’s purple people eaters and stabilize a defense that, when paired with this dangerous offense, could make this a playoff team next year.

16. San Diego Chargers 8-8

The Chargers, despite their 8-8 record, do not have a lot of glaring needs, except for maybe offensive line. Eugene Monroe, as well as Andre Smith and Michael Oher, is off the board, so they probably shouldn’t go that route and reach for someone like Jason Smith or Ciron Black. Because of that they can go the route of best available player that’s not a quarterback. That player would be Ohio State MLB James Laurinaitis. Their middle linebackers could stand to be upgraded. Maualuga would be an upgrade both Tim Robbins and Stephen Cooper. He would fit well into San Diego’s 3-4 defense because he wouldn’t be the only middle linebacker out there. This way he wouldn’t be overwhelmed as a rookie and could ease into the system.

17. New York Jets 9-7

Who knows if Brett Favre will be back, but even if he is, it wouldn’t be for too long, as he showed this year that he just doesn’t have a lot of life left in his arm (he also left his heart in Green Bay). The Jets shouldn’t even have to think before taking Georgia QB Matt Stafford, a potential top 5 pick who has slipped out of the lack of need for quarterbacks. Stafford will be ready to take over when Brett is done. He’d be an upgrade, by a lot, over current backup quarterbacks Kellen Clemens and Erick Ainge and with no glaring needs for the Jets, they almost have to take Stafford.

18. Chicago Bears 9-7
It’s weird to think of the Bears as not having a good pass rush or defensive ends, because that’s been their signature for years, but that is the case this season. No end has more than 6 sacks this season. Florida State DE Everette Brown, who has 12.5 sacks this season, should help them regain their once great pass rush by modernizing their defensive line, from the era of power rushers to the era of speed rushers. Brown runs a 40 in the 4.5s.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7

Joey Galloway and Ike Hillard were the starting wide receivers to start the year. They were a combined 69 years old and both lost their starting jobs. Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton will prove that this year is a fluke for both of them with a year, Bryant possibly even with another team seeing as he’s a free agent this off season. They need to draft a number one option for the future and with Maryland WR Darrius Heyward Bey still on the board, he needs to be the pick. Heyward Bey runs a 4.3 40 and is 6-2 and is regarded as one of the best pure athletes in the draft. If Colt McCoy comes out for the draft, this pick could be him, as coach Jon Gruden continues his never ending search for the perfect quarterback, but I believe McCoy when he says he’s staying in college for his senior season.

20. Detroit Lions (via DAL) 0-16

The Lions have defensive issues, but they should postpone those until the 2nd round. They should really look to follow Atlanta’s model from last off season. I already have them taking their franchise quarterback in Sam Bradford, now they need a franchise left tackle. LSU OT Ciron Black is long overdue to be drafted. He is not a natural left tackle, but can certainly play there. This would allow them to move Jeff Backus inside to guard where he belongs and successfully upgrade two positions at once.

21. Arizona Cardinals 9-7

Edgerrin James is done, at least in Arizona. He’ll likely be released this offseason and sign somewhere as a capable backup. Tim Hightower is a good back, but he only averaged 2.8 yards per carry, which shows me that the Hightower is more of a situational power back than an every down back. Georgia HB Knowshon Moreno is still available so he should be taken here. Hightower and Moreno would form a very solid running back combination, with Moreno as the feature speed back, and Hightower as the power back that takes it up the middle after Moreno has spread the defense out with his speed. That, combined with their amazing passing game, would give them one of the best offenses in the league.

22. Philadelphia Eagles 9-6-1

The Eagles line has been subpar this season, for an Andy Reid team, and it could get a lot worse with the possible free agent departures of both starting tackles, Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan. Even if neither leaves, they could use an offensive tackle of the future with Thomas and Runyan combining at be 69 years old. Baylor OT Jason Smith is a very raw offensive tackle with a lot of potential. He would make a lot of sense for them at this point. If it looks for sure like Runyan and Thomas will leave, this pick could be Phil Loadholt, a more polished offensive lineman who could step in right away. However, I’m making the assumption that they will be making this pick with the assumption of both returning and needing a future offensive tackle, who possibly could step in if needed in 2009, in the case that one were to leave. This pick, along with a later pick, could also be traded to Arizona, who would look to upgrade their defensive line with this selection, in exchange for Anquan Boldin if both teams decide that that’d the way they want to go with their organizations.

23. Minnesota Vikings 10-6

I understand this will not be a popular pick with many, but the pick here should be Florida QB Tim Tebow. Gus Frerotte has done well as a stopgap, but at 37 years old that's all he really is. Tavaris Jackson is not an NFL starting quarterback so this team needs to move in another direction at that position. Mark Sanchez would be a possibility here, but Tebow has more upside. He may be more of a project, but he has the talent to be a great NFL quarterback and where better to mature than Minnesota. He's got a great offensive line to protect him and can spend a year as a backup under Frerotte before taking over the job. He also has the liberty of not having to do too much. With Adrian Peterson anchoring the run game, he won't be asked to do too much which will be huge for him as a young maturing quarterback. This looks like the perfect place for Tebow to land and if the Vikings want to move into their bright future, this is the right move.

24. New England Patriots 11-5

The Patriots some how won 11 games this season despite the fact that their cornerback are awful. Ever since Asante Samuel left, Ellis Hobbs has been the #1 corner, and there really has been no legitimate #2 cornerback, with Belicheck using a weird rotation of Lewis Sander, Deltha O’Neal, and Jonathan Wilhite. Illinois CB Vontae Davis should be a top 5 or top 10 pick by potential, but he has slipped due to discipline problems. Davis has the potential to turn into that #1 corner, with Hobbs shifting back to the #2. Even if he does not reach his full potential, he is better than any corner they have other than Hobbs and better than any other corner available in the draft.

25. Atlanta Falcons 11-5

It’s amazing what good quarterbacks can do. Matt Ryan single handedly masked all of the Falcons other weaknesses that were so glaring last off season. However, just because he masked them, doesn’t mean they are gone, and they still have a huge hole right in the middle of their defense line at defensive tackle. Plugging that hole with 310 pound USC DT Fili Moala, once projected a top 10 pick, makes a lot of sense, especially since the Falcons are still giving up 4.9 yards per carry, good for 5th worst in the NFL.

26. Miami Dolphins 11-5

The Dolphins obviously ripped off the Redskins by getting a 2nd and 6th round pick for Jason Taylor, but Taylor still needs to be replaced. Jerry Porter had a great year this year so I wouldn’t be surprised if Bill Parcells trades him at a time when Porter’s value will probably never be higher. He already got rid of Taylor and Zach Thomas so I wouldn’t be surprised if Parcells tears the team up even more in an attempt to push forward the youth movement his way, assume he doesn’t leave as a “free agent” to another team. They would need some more pass rushers, such as South Florida DE/OLB George Selvie, to replace Taylor and possibly Porter. Selvie could play linebacker, as Porter’s replacement, or shift to end, where he would be an upgrade over Phillip Merling.

27. Baltimore Ravens 11-5

What happened to Mark Clayton? Suddenly Joe Flacco's only option is 34-year-old Derrick Mason. They need a wide receiver to breathe some live into that receiving core. Florida RB/WR Percy Harvin isn’t a true wide receiver, but, as Miami proved with Ted Ginn, speed doesn’t need a position to help your team and Harvin, who is projected to run a 40 between 4.27 and 4.31 at the combine, has plenty of speed. He would provide the playmaker, either out of backfield or lining up at receiver, that Joe Flacco lacked this year. He could also play some wildcat and help on some reverses and in the return game.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (via CAR) 9-6-1

There were some rumors, last draft, that Philly might trade their pick to Cleveland for Kellen Winslow Jr. That never happened and they traded the pick for a first rounder this year and some lesser picks last year. Still, LJ Smith might be one of the worst starting tight ends in the league and now it appears he is on bad terms with Andy Reid and might not be brought back this off season. There are plenty of tight ends that have late first to early second round potential, but the one I think is best is Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew. He is a good receiving tight end, with the potential to be like Kellen Winslow or any other good receiving tight end. If Dustin Keller can go first round in 2008, Pettigrew can go first round in 2009. If Philly trades their earlier pick to Arizona for Boldin, this pick could stay a tight end, or the Eagles could wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to pick up a tight end, definetely a possibility with the depth in the tight end class in the 2nd and 3rd round range, and take an offensive lineman, like Phil Loadholt, Eben Britton, or possibly Jason Smith, who the Eagles would take at #22 if that remains their pick, if he hasn’t already been snatched up.

29. Indianapolis Colts 12-4

They used to be able to stop the run. What happened? Even with Bob Sanders back they are still one of the worst run defenses in the league. They definitely need a defensive tackle. They were so desperate to get one at the trade deadline, they traded for Bills cast off John McCargo, before he failed his physical and the trade didn't go through. They are going to make a run at Albert Haynesworth this offseason, but that's no guarantee. The best defensive tackle available is questionable. BJ Raji, Sen'Derrick Marks, and Peria Jerry are all possibilities, but Auburn DT Sen'Derrick Marks fits the Colts system better and I think is the best of the three against the run.

30. New York Giants 12-4

Their defensive ends are amazing. They lost Michael Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to injury and they still rank 2nd in sacks. Justin Tuck is a pro bowler for sure, Mathias Kiwanuka might be too. However, with Kiwanuka moving up to defensive end, they lost a lot of the strength of their outside linebackers, forcing them to start Danny Clark, and since it looks like Kiwanuka is a defensive end to stay, they need to address that issue. Their outside linebackers have combined for four, count it four, interceptions, sacks, or forced fumbles this season. USC OLB Brian Cushing is the only outside linebacker, and therefore one player, who merits selection here. He could really breathe some life into their linebackers. Cushing would move Danny Clark, who in his career, 138 games, has 15 combined sacks, INTs, and forced fumbles, and has been cut by the Raiders because Al Davis didn't even think he could play defense, back where he belongs.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4

Their line was bad last year. Then they lose Alan Faneca and did not replace him. Now, Ben Roethlisberger gets sacked every time looks up seemingly and Willie Parker is struggling without that dominant run blocker to set up his cuts. They need to fix that; the fact that Oklahoma OG Duke Robinson is still available here only adds to that argument. Add in the fact that they have no other real needs and you have a team that needs to draft Duke Robinson.

32. Tennessee Titans 13-3

Corner is a definite need for the Titans, but the more I think about it, the less I see them reaching for Victor Harris. Jeff Fisher would probably be the one making the pick for them, so I think this will be a front 4 player. Albert Haynesworth is a free agent after the season, and if he goes, so could their success. They need a safety net at defensive tackle. Boston College DT BJ Raji is the best and biggest defensive tackle remaining, which the Titans love. Even if Haynesworth returns, Raji and Haynesworth together on the inside of that line would make this team even more dangerous.

NFL Week 17 Picks

2008-12-24T12:37:00.000-08:00

St. Louis at Atlanta 14-37

The Falcons are playing with the opportunity to win the division here and the Rams haven't been playing in weeks. Seriously, they got tackled by an old man last week. Add in the fact that the Falcons have 10 times more talent than the Rams and this one could get ugly.

Fantasy MVP: Michael Turner 140 yards rushing 30 yards receiving 2 TDs

New England at Buffalo 37-21

The Patriots are on a roll lately and the Bills haven't been a very good team in the past few weeks. Look for the Patriots offense to look like their 2007 offense once again this week and I don't think the Bills will have the offense firepower to match the Patriots and win the game/

Fantasy MVP: Matt Cassel 310 yards passing 3 TDs 1 INT

Kansas City at Cincinnati 13-17

The Chiefs seem to inventing new ways to lose. This might look like a very winable game for a Chiefs team that has looked pretty good for the first 3 quarters of their games this season, but the Bengals have looked pretty good over their past 2 weeks, getting 2 wins. Look for the Chiefs to lose once again.

Fantasy MVP: Cedric Benson 120 yards rushing 40 yards recieving 1 TD

Detroit at Green Bay 20-37

This is the Lions' last chance to win a game and don't think they won't be playing harder that any team this week. However, they just don't have the talent to get it done this year, even against a reeling Packers' team.

Fantasy MVP: Ryan Grant 130 yards rushing 40 yards receiving 2 TDs

Tennessee at Indianapolis 31-34

The Titans have already locked in their #1 seed and they've already beaten the Colts once this year. However, the Colts might be the best team in the league right now the way they are playing. Even though they've already locked in their playoff sport already, they will still be playing for something this week, and come out looking to maintain their momentum as well as get their best win of the season, even if it means Peyton Manning plays the whole games, as opposed to 1 quarter, which he normally does in Week 17.

Fantasy MVP: Peyton Manning 280 yards passing 3 TDs O INTs

NY Giants at Minnesota 27-17

The Giants have also locked in their #1 seed, but that doesn't mean they aren't going to play hard this week. Their team is value around the value that they should play hard every game. They want to keep the momentum going into the playoffs, so don't expect them to be resting their regulars too much. If this game turns into a game of simply which is a better team, which it should with the Giants not taking it easy, the Giants should win fairly easily.

Fantasy MVP: Eli Manning 210 yards passing 2 TDs 1 INT

Carolina at New Orleans 34-35 upset pick

The Panthers are a good team, but I'm not going to go against the trend. No NFC South has lost a division home game all year. I don't know the Saints are going to win it; I just know that somehow they will, even if by a tiny margin.

Fantasy MVP: Drew Bress 410 yards passing 4 TDs 2 INTs

Cleveland at Pittsburgh 6-31 lock pick

The Browns haven't scored an offensive touchdown in over a month and will be attempting to do it with their 4th different quarterback in that stretch of time and against the Steelers' #1 ranked defense. I say the streak continues and the Steelers win this one very easily. After the game, I wouldn't be surprised in Romeo Crennel's bags are sitting in the locker room. He's going to be fired very soon.

Fantasy MVP: Pittsburgh DEF 1 def TD, 4 INT, 1 fumble recovery, 4 Sacks, 6 points allowed

Oakland at Tampa Bay 10-28

The Raiders haven't looked bad lately, especially offensively with JaMarcus Russell having the best 2 game stretch of his young career. However, he did that against 2 mediocre pass defenses, Houston and New England. Don't expect Russell and the rest of the young Raiders to be able to march into Tampa, across 3 time zones, and beat the Bucs, no matter how bad the Bucs have been playing lately.

Fantasy MVP: Warrick Dunn 90 yards rushing 40 yards receiving 2 TDs

Chicago at Houston 21-24 upset pick

The Texans live and die by their offense, especially the pass offense. They should be able to move the ball fairly easy through the air this week against the Bears poor pass defense, in a warm weather game at home. They should be able to ride that all the way to the slim upset.

Fantasy MVP: Matt Schaub 330 yards passing 3 TDs 2 INTs

Jacksonville at Baltimore 13-23

The Jacksonville Jaguars haven't been very good all year and I don't expect that to change this week. The Ravens are playing for the playoffs, so they should be able to easily take care of business and win a very winnable game at home.

Fantasy MVP: Joe Flacco 260 yards passing 1 TD 0 INTs

Washington at San Francisco 17-21 upset pick

The Redskins won last week. However, they can't make the playoffs. Their coach's job has been secured for next year, reportedly, and they have to travel 3 time zones to play the 49ers, who haven't been very kind to vistors from the East Coast this year. The Niners are playing for coach Mike Singletary's job, to be brought back next year as a full time coach, not just an interim, as well as a 7-9 record, which would be a sign of huge progress this season and a very bright future with the 49ers for the first time in a long time.

Fantasy MVP: Shaun Hill 220 yards passing 2 TDs 0 INTs

Miami at NY Jets 24-27 upset pick

I still like Brett here. He is going to be playing in a cold enviorment with a bad shoulder, but he's still Brett Favre. You can't bet against him in huge games like this, especially against teams that aren't used to playing in the cold. He should be able to light up the Dolphins poor pass defense, their Achilles Heel, and have his best game in months.

Fantasy MVP: Brett Favre 280 yards passing 3 TDs 2 INTs

Dallas at Philadelphia 38-31

Logic says don't pick the Cowboys in December. Logic says don't pick against the Eagles in December. Logic says don't pick the Cowboys in a big game, especially a season finale, they haven't won one since 1999. However, the Cowboys are the better team here and with both teams coming off losses, neither has the momentum. I expect talent to prevail over the trends and the logic.

Fantasy MVP: Brian Westbrook 100 yards rushing 70 yards receiving 2 TDs

Seattle at Arizona 21-13 upset pick

The Cardinals are already in the playoffs and haven't been playing very well lately so don't expect them to play anywhere near their best ball. I have a feeling the Seahawks, who are heating up lately, will win here and send Mike Holmgren out with a win. Senaca Wallace should be able to torch the Cards' poor secondary and that'll be enough to win.

Fantasy MVP: Seneca Wallace 270 yards passing 2 TDs 0 INTs

Denver at San Diego 21-27 game of the week

It has come down to this. The Chargers back in Denver for revenge, Hochuli nowhere in sight, in what is pretty much a one game playoffs, winner goes to the playoffs, loser does not. The Chargers should be able to close out the semi-miracle comeback at home. The better team will win here, as they should have last time these two met, way back in week 2.

Fantasy MVP: LaDainian Tomlinson 115 yards rushing 40 yards receiving 2TDs

NFL Mock Draft #2

2008-12-20T11:14:00.000-08:00

Draft order reverse of my Week 16 Power Rankings

1. Detroit Lions 0-14

If Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford comes out, the Lions need to take him. The Falcons proved this season, with Matt Ryan, that when you have a good quarterback, you can mask up a bunch of other holes, which the Lions, at 0-13, certainly have. If Bradford can do what Ryan did this year for the Falcons, and management can bring in some small name, but helpful free agents, like Atlanta did with Michael Turner, and the Lions can be smart with their 2nd first round pick, from Dallas, as Atlanta did when they took Sam Baker, the Lions could once again be a respectable team very quickly.

2. St. Louis Rams 2-12

The Rams have the same problem as Cincinnati. Marc Bulger is a frail injury prone quarterback, who takes a long time to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the line is frail injury prone Orlando Pace and on the right side of the line is a rotating door of frail injury prone right tackles. Ole Miss OT Michael Oher should be able to help. He can play both right tackle and left and help to keep Bulger healthy so he can have a season like he did in 2006, the last time Pace, and therefore Bulger, was fully healthy.

3. Cincinnati Bengals 2-11-1

When healthy, the Bengals’ passing game alone can win them games. Unfortunately, Carson Palmer has been injured so that hasn’t happened. Ryan Fitzpatrick stepped in and has met turf 37 times in 11 starts. It has gotten to the point where every week he plays in another year off his life expectancy. The running game is picking up a measly 3.4 yards per carry. All of this could be helped, if not fixed, by taking an offensive lineman. Alabama OT Andre Smith sits here waiting to be drafted. He can keep Palmer healthy next season by stopping the opposing pass rush, bringing back that once formidable passing game. Along with a new running back, which they should use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on, or take either Chris Wells or Knowshon Moreno with a pick they get in return for Chad Ocho Cinco, if they choose to move him, this offense can bring this team back into the playoff race.

4. Kansas City Chiefs 2-12

Imagine what it must be like to play quarterback against the Kansas City Chiefs. Drop back to pass, wait 20 seconds for the play to develop, oh there’s a little bit of pressure, finally, too bad I released the ball 15 seconds ago. The Chiefs have 9 sacks this season in 14 games. Jared Allen is gone and they need someone to lineup alongside Tamba Hali. Texas DE Brian Orakpo, one of college football’s most feared pass rushers, should help. He’ll take the pressure off of Hali, who had 7.5 sacks last season alongside Jared Allen, and solidify the pass rush from the other side.

5. Seattle Seahawks 3-11

Matt Hasselbeck is back, I don’t know why though. Every time he looks up to pass, there’s no one there. It is no longer at the point where they are taking random wide receivers and lining them up like it was earlier in the season, however, his top 2 options are Bobby Engram, 35 years old and counting, and Deion Branch, who hasn’t been healthy since 2005. After them, it gets even worse as Koren Robinson, Jordan Dent, and Courtney Taylor prove week after week that they just can’t catch the football. With Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree still in the board, they need to take him. He might be the most athletically gifted wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson, and that’s saying something.

6. Oakland Raiders 3-11

Allow me to step into the shoes of Al Davis for this selection (man, am I ugly!). Hmm, I like fast and I like USC. That 6-3 230 kid just ran a 4.4 40, and he goes to USC, draft him now. That kid is USC FS Taylor Mays, who is an athletic free of nature. With Michael Huff now officially a bust, Mays could be his replacement and hopefully be a little bit less of a bust. He doesn’t fit a need necessarily for the Raiders, but Al Davis is going to fall head over heels in love with him after the combine, so Mays is the pick. If a sane owner were running the show, this pick would have to be Eugene Monroe. This offensive line is awful. Unfortunately for Raider Nation, one is not.

7. Cleveland Browns 4-10

Their pass defense hasn’t been good, 27th in terms of yards per attempt. There are three ways that can be fixed. Defensive end, attack the source of the pass, cornerback, defend the pass, or safety, and try to do a little of both. However, with Taylor Mays gone no safety merits selection here. Malcolm Jenkins is a bit of reach here, though he is the top corner on the board. The team also does have two very capable corners already with Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald, combined for 8 picks this year, so corner wouldn’t make a lot of sense. With Brian Orakpo gone, it’s hard to see them taking a defensive end here either, though one could make a case for Michael Johnson. The other area they have struggled in is run offense. Jamal Lewis is 29 and averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Jerome Harrison is a good change of pace back, but nothing more. They need to release Lewis and start fresh with a new back. Ohio State RB Chris Wells can take Jamal Lewis’ place as the primary back. Together, assuming Brady Quinn lives up to potential and they can improve their defense with what they get for Derek Anderson.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-10

The Jaguars, as any 5-10 team, have a lot of needs. Interior linemen are much needed, but unless they want to draft Eugene Monroe and try to convert him into a guard, this is way too early to draft a guard or center. On the defense, interior linebackers are needed, with Mike Peterson on bad terms and a free agent this off season. However, the pass defense is still awful, ranking 30th in terms of yards per attempt. They tried to fix their pass defense with better pass rushers last off season, but that didn’t work. It’s gotten so bad that Drayton Florence has had to step in alongside Rashean Mathis. They need a long term cornerback to play alongside Mathis and who better than Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins. He’s the only cornerback worth taking here and he makes more sense for the Jags than Monroe or a linebacker like Rey Maualuga or James Laurinaitis.

9. Green Bay Packers 5-9

What the Packers like to do is take best available. While defensive line is their biggest need, I doubt they’ll reach here for an end like Michael Johnson, though that might not be a huge reach, or a defensive tackle like Terence Cody. Virginia OT Eugene Monroe is the best player available here and he can really be a help to the Packers. He can play both tackle and guard. Their tackles combine to be 63 years old and while their guards combine to only weigh 605 pounds. The 21-year-old 325 pound Monroe can help with both. Their offensive line is in the bottom half of the league in terms of sacks allowed, despite having the swift Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, and the bottom third in terms of rushing yards per carry, despite having both Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson at running back.

10. Buffalo Bills 6-8

The Bills decline this season is a head scratching one but I think it can be credited to their decline in pass defense. Their corners are fine, in fact they used a first rounder on Leodis McKlevin last year and he has done fine. However, with Aaron Schobel, injury and age, possibly done as an elite pass rusher for his career, they need to get a #1 pass rusher quick. Quarterbacks are getting too much time in the pocket against them. Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson is the best pass rusher left on the board.

11. San Francisco 49ers 5-9

I started out liking the idea of them taking a quarterback, and having him sit a year behind Shaun Hill and have that quarterback be the future quarterback starting in 2010. Then I decided Hill looked like he could keep a starting job longer than that and decided the team should go defensive line, with Michael Johnson. However, with Johnson off of the board, there aren’t any defensive lineman that merit selection here, but Georgia QB Matt Stafford, who has top 5 pick potential, still is on the board, so they should draft him and make him the quarterback of the future. He’s just too good to pass up on at this point, especially with all of the players who would fill needs for them being major reaches at this point in the draft.

12. San Diego Chargers 6-8

The Chargers, despite their 6-8 record, do not have a lot of glaring needs, except for maybe offensive line. Eugene Monroe, as well as Andre Smith and Michael Oher, is off the board, so they probably shouldn’t go that route and reach for someone like Jason Smith or Ciron Black. Because of that they can go the route of best available player that’s not a quarterback. That player would be USC MLB Rey Maualuga. Their middle linebackers could stand to be upgraded. Maualuga would be an upgrade both Tim Robbins and Stephen Cooper. He would fit well into San Diego’s 3-4 defense because he wouldn’t be the only middle linebacker out there. This way he wouldn’t be overwhelmed as a rookie and could ease into the system.

13. New Orleans Saints 7-7

The Saints defense needs helps everywhere, most notably at outside linebacker, defensive end, and safety. They definitely don’t need to reach for a defensive end, with other major needs, so this pick isn’t going to be Everette Brown or even Aaron Maybin. Outside linebacker and safety are both possibilities. Aaron Curry would be a major upgrade at outside linebacker and William Moore would do the same at safety. However, I think this team would be better off going with a front 7 player, seeing as their run defense is their biggest weakness. Wake Forest OLB Aaron Curry is the pick.

14. Washington Redskins 7-7

The Redskins traded for Jason Taylor this off season with the intention that he would solidify their weak pass rush for a few years to come. However, he got hurt and might not play again, because he’s 34 years old. Even if he comes back next year, their pass rush could stand to be upgraded. In my mind Everette Brown is the best pass rusher available, but Penn State DE Aaron Maybin makes more sense for the ‘Skins here because he can play outside linebacker, another weakness, until Taylor calls it quits, if he doesn’t this off season.

15. Houston Texans 7-7

The Texans need help everywhere on defense, except for right end, where Mario Williams has been a stud, and at middle linebacker with pro bowler DeMeco Ryans. However, they need to improve their defense fast, because their talented offense will just waste away if they do not. They can take best player overall, which in this case is Missouri FS William Moore. He’d certainly be an upgrade Will Demps, who is currently the starting free safety. Demps hasn’t had an interception, sack, or forced fumble all year.

16. Chicago Bears 8-6

It’s weird to think of the Bears as not have a good pass rush or defensive ends, because that’s been their signature for years, but that is the case this season. No end has more than 5 sacks this season. Florida State DE Everette Brown, who has 12.5 sacks this season, should help them regain their once great pass rush in this era of speed rushers. Brown runs a 40 in the 4.5s.

17. Philadelphia Eagles 8-5-1

The Eagles line has been subpar this season, for an Andy Reid team, and it could get a lot worse with the possible free agent departures of both starting tackles, Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan. Even if neither leaves, they could use an offensive tackle of the future with Thomas and Runyan combining at be 69 years old. Baylor OT Jason Smith is a very raw offensive tackle with a lot of potential. He would make a lot of sense for them at this point. If it looks for sure like Runyan and Thomas will leave, this pick could be Ciron Black, a more polished offensive lineman who could step in right away. However, I’m making the assumption that they will be making this pick with the assumption of both returning and needing a future offensive tackle, who could step in if needed in 2009, if one were to leave.

18. Miami Dolphins 9-5

Bill Parcells, and therefore his puppet coach Tony Sparano, loves linebackers, so James Laurinaitis, a 3 time All-American linebacker, is a possibility. However, Parcells isn’t stupid. He’s not just going to ignore a glaring need when he could fix it. Will Allen and Andre Goodman are currently the starting cornerbacks. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Will Allen and Andre Goodman aren’t exactly shutdown corners, which is why opposing wide receivers and quarterbacks have had field days against them this year. Parcells isn’t going to ignore that problem if it can be easily fixed, or at least helped. Drafting Illinois CB Vontae Davis, who would have top 10 potential if it weren’t have his discipline issues, would definitely help this team.

19. New York Jets 9-5

The Jets don’t have huge glaring needs, so they can draft best available here. That would be Ohio State MLB James Laurinaitis, a 3 time All-American. Their middle linebackers could stand to be upgraded, especially since both are 31 years old, and David Bowens isn’t having that good of a season to beginning with.

20. Atlanta Falcons 9-5

It’s amazing what good quarterbacks can do. Matt Ryan single handedly masked all of the Falcons other weaknesses that were so glaring last off season. However, just because he masked them, doesn’t mean they are gone, and they still have a huge hole right in the middle of their defense line at defensive tackle. Plugging that hole with 355 pound Alabama DT Terence Cody makes a lot of sense, especially since the Falcons are still giving up 4.9 yards per carry, good for 3rd worst in the NFL.

21. New England Patriots 9-5

Deltha O'Neal, Lewis Sanders, Jonathan Wilhite, that is the group of cornerbacks that the Patriots have on their roster to play alongside Ellis Hobbs. That needs to be fixed now. Safety and linebacker can wait, the Pats are 26th in the league in yards per passing attempt allowed. Vanderbilt CB DJ Moore might be a bit of a stretch, but they need a cornerback here and he's the best available. He's not a huge stretch and he's better than anyone other than Hobbs.

22. Detroit Lions (via DAL) 0-14

The Lions have defensive issues, but they should postpone those until the 2nd round. They should really look to follow Atlanta’s model from last off season. I already have them taking their franchise quarterback in Sam Bradford, now they need a franchise left tackle. LSU OT Ciron Black is long overdue to be drafted. He is not a natural left tackle, but can certainly play there. This would allow them to move Jeff Backus inside to guard where he belongs and successfully upgrade two positions at once.

23. Denver Broncos 9-5

Andre Hall, Michael Pittman, Selvin Young, Ryan Torain, and now Peyton Hillis, those are all running backs that the Broncos have put in IR this year. They need a steady, stable back for the future. With Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno available, and their lack of a steady running back, the Broncos should take him here. He and Cutler will make a nice quarterback, running back duo.

24. Arizona Cardinals 9-5

Running back is a need for them in the first round, but unless Wells or Moreno fall to them, not likely, they are going to have to pursue other options in the first round. With Tim Hightower’s emergence, they can wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to get a speed back to play off of Hightower’s power running. Ignoring their running back need for now, their biggest needs are interior offensive lineman and defensive end. No interior offensive lineman merits selection here, so they should focus on a defensive end, seeing as their starters have combined for 6.5 sacks. South Florida DE George Selvie is the best player available at this point and fills a need for the Cards. He also could move to outside linebacker if they want him to.

25. Minnesota Vikings 9-5

I understand this will not be a popular pick with many, but the pick here should be Florida QB Tim Tebow. Gus Frerotte has done well as a stopgap, but at 37 years old that's all he really is. Tavaris Jackson is not an NFL starting quarterback, unless he continues to play well, so this team needs to move in another direction at that position. Mark Sanchez would be a possibility here, but Tebow has more upside. He may be more of a project, but he has the talent to be a great NFL quarterback and where better to mature than Minnesota. He's got a great offensive line to protect him and can spend a year as a backup under Frerotte before taking over the job. He also has the liberty of not having to do too much. With Adrian Peterson anchoring the run game, he won't be asked to do too much which will be huge for him as a young maturing quarterback. This looks like the perfect place for Tebow to land and if the Vikings want to move into their bright future, this is the right move.

26. Baltimore Ravens 9-5

What happened to Mark Clayton? Suddenly Joe Flacco's only option is 34-year-old Derrick Mason. They need a wide receiver to breathe some live into that receiving core and who better than Maryland native Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, who is 6-2 and runs a 40 in the 4.3s. He has slipped way too far and Baltimore should take him to help out Joe Flacco.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-5

Joey Galloway and Ike Hillard were the starting wide receivers to start the year. They were a combined 69 years old and both lost their starting jobs. Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton will prove that this year is a fluke for both of them with a year, Bryant possibly even with another team seeing as he’s a free agent this off season. Percy Harvin is the best wide receiver available in terms of talent, but he’s small, injury prone, and inconsistent, which the Bucs are not looking for right now. Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin might be a bit of a reach, but he is the best fit. If Colt McCoy comes out, don’t be surprise if Jon Gruden drafts him on his magical search to find a flawless quarterback. However, I believe McCoy when he says he’s staying for his senior year.

28. Indianapolis Colts 11-4

They used to be able to stop the run. What happened? Even with Bob Sanders back they are still one of the worst run defenses in the league. They definitely need a defensive tackle. They were so desperate to get one at the trade deadline, they traded for Bills cast off John McCargo, before he failed his physical and the trade didn't go through. They are going to make a run at Albert Haynesworth this offseason, but that's no guarantee. The best defensive tackle available is questionable. Fili Moala, Sen'Derrick Marks, and Peria Terry are all possibilities, but Auburn DT Sen'Derrick Marks fits the Colts system better and I think is the best of the three against the run.

29. New York Giants 11-3

Their defensive ends are amazing. They lost Michael Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to injury and they still rank 5th in sacks. Justin Tuck is a pro bowler, and Mathias Kiwanuka might have deserved to be one too. However, with Kiwanuka moving up to defensive end, they lost a lot of the strength of their outside linebackers, forcing them to start Danny Clark, and since it looks like Kiwanuka is a defensive end to stay, they need to address that issue. Their outside linebackers have combined for two, count it two, interceptions, sacks, or forced fumbles this season. USC OLB Brian Cushing is the only outside linebacker, and therefore one player, who merits selection here. He could really breathe some life into their linebackers, and move Danny Clark, who in his career, 130 games, has 10 combined sacks, INTs, and forced fumbles, and has been cut by the Raiders because Al Davis didn't even think he could play defense, back where he belongs.

30. Philadelphia Eagles (via CAR) 8-5-1

This pick might not stay Philly's as they have two picks this year in the first round, and one could possibly be traded to Arizona for Anquan Boldin. However, this they keep it, there's a good chance that they use it on a tight end. There were some rumors, last draft, that Philly might trade their pick to Cleveland for Kellen Winslow Jr. That never happened and they traded the pick for a first rounder this year and some lesser picks last year. Still, LJ Smith might be one of the worst starting tight ends in the league and now it appears he is on bad terms with Andy Reid and might not be brought back this off season. There are plenty of tight ends that have late first to early second round potential, but the one I think is best is Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew. He is a good receiving tight end, with the potential to be like Kellen Winslow or any other good receiving tight end. If Dustin Keller can go first round in 2008, Pettigrew can go first round in 2009.

31. Tennessee Titans 12-2

Corner is a definite need for the Titans, but the more I think about it, the less I see them reaching for Victor Harris. Jeff Fisher would probably be the one making the pick for them, so I think this will be a front 4 player. Albert Haynesworth is a free agent after the season, and if he goes, so could their success. They need a safety net at defensive tackle. Boston College DT BJ Raji is the best and biggest defensive tackle remaining, which the Titans love. Even if Haynesworth returns, Raji and Haynesworth together on the inside of that line would make this team even more dangerous.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers 11-3

Their line was bad last year. Then they lose Alan Faneca and did not replace him. Now, Ben Roethlisberger gets sacked every time looks up seemingly and Willie Parker is struggling without that dominant run blocker to set up his cuts. They need to fix that; the fact that Oklahoma OG Duke Robinson is still available here only adds to that argument. Add in the fact that they have no other real needs and you have a team that needs to draft Duke Robinson.

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

2008-12-18T19:57:00.000-08:00

Awful

32. Detroit Lions 0-14: I’m running out of things to say about them. They are just that awful. They won’t win this season, but as the Falcons showed last off season, it’s easy to turn around a team with a good off season. With Matt Millen no longer leading this team, anything is possible, especially since they have 2 first round draft picks.

31. St. Louis Rams 2-12: They don’t have a very bright future, winning 4 games combined in the last few years, but they could at least look like the care and try out there. This team is a mess, as evidenced by their loss to the Seahawks who only have 3 wins of their own.

30. Cincinnati Bengals 2-11: The Bengals won a game last week in an upset, but this is still a mess of a team. They can’t run, they can’t pass, at least no with Carson Palmer, and their defense is still not very good. One top wide receiver wants out; the other one will probably leave as a free agent.

Better luck next year

29. Kansas City Chiefs 2-12: The Chiefs just can’t catch a break, losing so many close games this year that they should have won. The blown 21-3 to the Chargers is just a glimpse at what this season has been like for the Chiefs. Carl Peterson is gone as GM and that’s a good thing. They also have some great young talent for the future, coming off what is still a great draft back in April, with another top draft pick coming up, and a good signal caller in Tyler Thigpen.

28. Seattle Seahawks 3-11: This team won last week, getting a close victory over the awful Rams. However, this is still a very disappointing season, especially in Mike Holmgren’s final season. Holmgren might not be done yet though. Don’t count out a comeback, rumored to be interested in a front office job with his home town Niners. I don’t think this is how Holmgren wants to go out, even if he said before the season that he wants to retire after the year to spend more time with his family.

27. Oakland Raiders 3-11: The Raiders are not a good team by any means, and a lot of that can be traced back to the offensive line as well as shortsighted moves by the owner and the rest of the front office. I mean you know something’s wrong when you score the most points you’ve scored all season in a 23 point loss, as they did against the Pats last week. However, I give them credit for their ability to pull out random upsets, otherwise they might be looking at 0-16 as well.

26. Cleveland Browns 4-10: This team is a mess right now with Ken Dorsey leading the offensive unit that recently scored its first offensive touchdown in nearly a month in the fourth quarter of a game in which they trailed 30-3 at the time. However, they have some hope the future. They are expected to come back with a new fulltime quarterback, Brady Quinn over Derek Anderson, who likely gets traded, as well as a new running back, with Jamal Lewis likely on the way out, and likely a new coach as it will take a “miracle” to save Romeo Crennel’s job. That will be very interesting as they look to prove this year, in which they have lost double digits, is the fluke, rather than their 2007 season, in which they won double digits. Right now, that one looks like the fluke, but they could prove me wrong.

Looking forward to a top ten draft pick

25. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-9: This team is easily one of the most disappointing this year. With their talent, they should have won more than 5 games. This just goes to show that a combination of overly high expectations and lack of a passing game in a warm weather home stadium don’t mix.

24. Green Bay Packers 5-9: The wheels officially fell off this team with their loss to Jacksonville. This team is a complete mess right now, despite the fact that Aaron Rodgers has played very well this season, with a higher passer rating than Brett Favre. However, even though their problem has been run offense and defense, Aaron Rodgers is still going to take the bulk of the blame.

23. Buffalo Bills 6-8: This team will make the short list of teams that finished 4-0 and failed to make the playoffs and they’ll probably fail to make the playoffs by a large margin. They play the Broncos and Patriots to close out the season, two not so fun games for them, so they could easily end up going 6-10, including 1-9 in their last 10, and miss the playoffs by 4 or 5 games.

Probably not a playoff team

22. San Francisco 49ers 5-9: The Niners don’t have a very good record, but should have won last week, as well as earlier this season against Arizona. This is a team that should be hovering around .500 and for this team, that’s a huge start on what’s shaping up to be a future that’s brightening everyday under Mike Singletary.

21. San Diego Chargers 6-8: They are still hanging in there after a miracle comeback against the Kansas City Chiefs. They have had an awful season, but if a few things go right this week, most notably the team going into Tampa and pulling off the upset, as well as Denver losing to Buffalo, it sets up a week 17 match up between the Chargers and Broncos and a playoff spot. More than likely, they won’t make the playoffs, but they have yet to be mathematically eliminated and with the talent that they have on their team, remember this is the same team, with the same players at least, that was some people’s Super Bowl favorites before the season, they are a dangerous team.

20. New Orleans Saints 7-7: Drew Brees has officially dropped out of the MVP race it looks like, seeing as he has this nasty habit of throwing the ball to the wrong team in the clutch. He has good stats, but he’s also part of the reason the Saints are 7-7. You can’t blame it all on injuries and the defense. The quarterback is somewhat at fault here. This could easily be a 9-5 if it wasn’t for late collapses against Tampa and Chicago.

Making some noise

19. Washington Redskins 7-7: Jim Zorn recently called himself the worst coach in the world. Now there are some people calling for him to lose his job. Still, remember, this guy was the one who got them out to that hot start and turned Jason Campbell into a winner. The team has definitely declined, but that has more to do with Clinton Portis struggling, which I don’t think you can trace back to a quarterback’s coach.

18. Houston Texans 7-7: Imagine where this team would be if Schaub to Johnson was healthy all year. That is one of the most underrated and deadliest quarterback-wide receiver combos in the league. Nonetheless, they are still in a position where they can finish with a winning record, for the first time in franchise history, which for this team would be huge. They have a great future ahead of them.

Close, but no cigar

17. Chicago Bears 8-6: The Bears need the Vikings to lose out to win the division and make the playoffs, which, with the way they’ve been playing lately isn’t likely. If that happens, then the Bears would still need to win their last two, which is possible, but still, I don’t like their playoff chances.

16. Philadelphia Eagles 8-5-1: It must be that time of the year again because the Eagles won’t lose. However, it looks like they have to win out to make the playoffs so they better hope this streak continues. In the playoffs, I wouldn’t like their chances, because of their inability to score in the red zone or convert on 3rd and short.

15. Miami Dolphins 9-5: The Dolphins seem to be in good position, with an easy game this week and a game upcoming week 17 against the Jets, which could be for the division. However, I don’t like their chances against the Jets, and look out for those Chiefs. They are an interesting upset choice for this week, which is bad news because, in that division, the Dolphins can’t afford a loss. A loss would mean that it would take prayers to get into the playoffs.

On the playoff bubble

14. NY Jets 9-5: The Jets won last week, but it took a miracle. Something isn’t right which is why the Pats become the new favorites in the AL East. The Jets are still very much alive though.

13. Atlanta Falcons 9-5: The Falcons are currently out of the playoff picture if the season were to end deadly. They face an uphill battle and need to win out and Dallas to lose at least one. Next up, a trip to Minnesota as their Achilles heel, the run defense, looks to stop AP and the Vikings.

12. New England Patriots 9-5: The Pats didn’t look good last week defensively, giving up 26 to the Raiders. However, they have a cakewalk of a schedule over these last two weeks and control their own fate. I’d rather be in their position that the Dolphins, who are on the outside looking in, and the Jets who look somewhat of a mess right now.

11. Dallas Cowboys 9-5: Huge win last week against the Giants, but they’ve still got their work cut out to make the playoffs. They have two tough games coming up, Philadelphia and Baltimore so they can’t afford to collapse. I can’t see them getting any higher than the 2nd wild card because of the fact that Tampa’s last two games are against the Chargers and Raiders.

Playoffs and maybe more

10. Denver Broncos 8-6: They might end up being the worst team to make the playoffs. They are going to get rolled by anyone with a running game, which is every playoff team. However, with the Chargers in a bad position below them, they are likely going to make the playoffs, even if they don’t do anything good once there.

9. Arizona Cardinals 8-6: The rebirth of the Greatest Show on Turf has been rolled to the turf over the past few weeks. They aren’t going to do much better than the Broncos come playoffs time, but thanks to a weak division, they already have clinched their playoff ticket.

8. Minnesota Vikings 9-5: If Tavaris Jackson keeps playing like this, it would give them a true signal caller and if that’s the case, look out. This is a Super Bowl contender. However, that probably isn’t the case, but even if it isn’t AP could win them a playoff game or two by himself, along with this stout defense.

Dark horses

7. Baltimore Ravens 9-5: They Ravens very easily could have won that last game against the Steelers, and probably should have judging from the looks of that “touchdown” replay. However, all they look is the chance to win the division. This team is exactly as dangerous to playoff teams as they were last week and with this experienced defense, that’s very, very dangerous.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-5: The Buccaneers have lost two in a row, but they both have been on the road to tough division rivals. It may have raised some concerns and questions, most notably whether or not their run defense is as good as believed. However, they should take these last 2 games, San Diego and Oakland, to get right and go into the playoffs as a dangerous team that you shouldn’t sleep on, especially if Jeff Garcia comes back 100%.

5. Indianapolis Colts 10-4: Tell me if this sounds dangerous. Peyton Manning and the Colts coming into the playoffs with a 9 game winning streak, and a bunch of people sleeping on them. That could very well end up being the case. This team should be the single most feared team by any playoff team right now and they’re not. Dwight Freeney is healthy, Bob Sanders, is healthy, Peyton Manning is healthy, Marvin Harrison is getting there. This team is as good, if not better because of the fact that they’re sneaking up on people, than the one that won the Super Bowl in 2007.

Elite Runner Ups

4. New York Giants 11-3: The Giants have to be worried. Their 6-5 red zone target has a self afflicted gunshot wound in his leg, and huge legal issues, and their 260 pound short yardage back is not 100% if he plays at all. Eli Manning has been exposed and looks like his early 2007 self again. They play the Panthers for the NFC regular season title this week, so they could very well lose 3 straight. If they don’t get things right, they could lose before the conference finals. Most likely they will though and they’ll get another shot at Carolina in the Conference Finals if they lose to them this week.

3. Carolina Panthers 11-3: Before we crown them Super Bowl champs, they still have to beat the Giants twice, in my opinion, the first time to ensure that the second one will be at home, where they are undefeated, and the second time to make the Super Bowl. However, they look really good right now and a win against the Giants could shoot them up this chart even more.

2. Tennessee Titans 12-2: They still only have 2 losses, but losing to Houston, combined with losing both Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth, made this a very bad week for them. The Steelers couldn’t be coming to town at a worse time for them.

Favorite

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 11-3: Regardless of whether or not they deserved to win against Baltimore, they did and they look like the type of team that can win anywhere, against anyone. That is the single most important aspect of a team going into the playoffs.

NFL Week 16 Picks

2008-12-16T10:58:00.000-08:00

Indianapolis at Jacksonville 34-21

The Colts are on a roll as of late, which is a scary thought for many teams. Jacksonville won last week, but they aren't the same team as last year, the one that could have won the division. They don't have the chemistry. Peyton Manning and the Colts should win one fairly easily here.

Fantasy MVP: Peyton Manning 350 yards 4 touchdowns 1 INT

Baltimore at Dallas 23-31

The Cowboys looked really good last week. The Ravens defense is great, especially against the run, but weak against the pass. That's bad news when playing a pass heavy team like the Cowboys, in a pass friendly enviornment like Dallas. Marion Barber won't have a great game against this Baltimore run defense, few do, but he's the type of back, a power back like Brandon Jacobs, who had a great game against the Ravens earlier this year, who can stablize the running game and not force the Cowboys to be one dimensional. That should set up the pass, which Baltimore is weak against, and force the Ravens' young offense to play from behind, which they could have trouble with.

Fantasy MVP: Tony Romo 280 yards 3 touchdowns 1 INT

Cincinnati at Cleveland 10-13

Both teams are just so awful. This might be one of the sloppiest games of football all year. The Browns have at least some talent, in the running game, and a few defensive players, as well as kick returner Josh Cribbs, so I'll pick them to win a messy one.

Fantasy MVP: Braylon Edwards 95 yards receiving 1 touchdown

San Francisco at St. Louis 27-10

This was a blowout, in the Niners' favor, last time these two teams met. Not much has changed since then. The Rams are still not trying and the Niners are still making good progress for the future under Mike Singletary. Expect the same result as last time. This one will be over fast.

Fantasy MVP: Shaun Hill 230 yards passing 2 touchdowns 1 INT

New Orleans at Detroit 38-21 lock pick

The Saints offense is going to have the game of their lives. Detroit's defense is that bad. Look for the Saints and their strong offense to blow out the Lions, pushing them to 0-15. The Lions will score some on the Saints' weak defense, but it'll be far too little, far too late.

Fantasy MVP: Pierre Thomas 130 yards rushing 35 yards receiving 3 touchdowns

Pittsburgh at Tennessee 31-10 upset pick

You might be surprised at the predicted margin of victory, but I expect Pittsburgh to go into Tennessee and win in very easily fashion. The Titans are walking wounded without Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch, their two most important defensive players. They aren't going to be able to create anything up front without them, or at leat not nearly enough to exploit the Steelers' one weakness, the line, and win in the trenches. Ben Roethlisberger is going to get time in the pocket and pick apart the Titans' secondary.

Fantasy MVP: Ben Roethlisberger 280 yards 2 touchdowns 0 INTs

Miami at Kansas City 21-24 upset pick

Kansas City has to win eventually. They can't keep losing close games and I think this will be the week they break out and get a good win. The Dolphins looked really bad last week, even in a win, nearly blowing it at home against San Francisco. I don't think this team is as talented as their record says they are. They will go into Kansas City and lose, as the Chiefs finally win a close one. The Chiefs have really looked good lately with Tyler Thigpen at quarterback.

Fantasy MVP: Ronnie Brown 100 yards rushing 50 yards receiving 2 touchdowns

Arizona at New England 38-41

If Tavaris Jackson can get 4 touchdowns against Arizona, how many can Matt Cassel get? Cassel and the Patriots' offense should have a fairly easy time here. Even with Cassel at the helm, instead of Tom Brady, they have looked like the 2007 Patriots offensively at times. This should be another one of those times. Kurt Warner and the Cardinals should have a good game too offensively, but not enough to outscore the Pats in this sure to be high scoring affair. Plus, Arizona should be affected by the 3 hours time difference which has messed up so many good teams this year.

Fantasy MVP: Matt Cassel 360 yards passing 4 touchdowns 1 INT

San Diego at Tampa Bay 20-27

This is the Chargers last chance to salvage their season, so they'll give a good effort. However, I just don't think they have what it takes to have a good season this year. They aren't going to be able to beat both major trends in the NFL this season, teams traveling across threee times zones often lose and the NFC South is 26-2 at home, and come into Tampa and win a game. They aren't good enough and Tampa isn't bad enough.

Fantasy MVP: LaDainian Tomlinson 90 yards rushing 45 yards receiving 1 touchdown

Houston at Oakland 17-21 lock pick

Matchup of the week right here in terms of player vs. player. Andre Johnson is the wide receiver that Matt Schaub throws to almost every play. Nmandi Asomugha is the cornerback that will be defending him and the cornerback that no one every throws on. If he can shut down Johnson, the Texans will have no one to go to and lose this one. If Johnson wins, the Texans will have a field day. I'm going with the former for the upset.

Fantasy MVP: Steve Slaton 70 yards rushing 40 yards receiving 2 touchdowns

Buffalo at Denver 14-38

Denver is one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. That also means they randomly explode for huge games. Against a Buffalo team that is going nowhere but down, 1-7 in their last 8 after starting 5-1, that looks very likely.

Fantasy MVP: Jay Cutler 420 yards passing 4 touchdowns 1 INT

NY Jets at Seattle 27-21

East Coast teams have had trouble playing west coast teams on the west coast, with the exception of the Patriots, and most notably the Jets, losing to both the Raiders and the Niners. However, the Seahawks aren't very good, so that shouldn't matter. Brett Favre will win here, though it will be much closer than their records say it should be.

Fantasy MVP: Thomas Jones 110 yards rushing 40 yards receiving 2 touchdowns

Atlanta at Minnesota 20-24

The Falcons have two weaknesses, defending the run and going on the road. Going to Minnesota to play the Vikings and the league's best running back Adrian Peterson shouldn't be much fun for them. They'll lose a well fought game.

Fantasy MVP: Adrian Peterson 140 yards rushing 2 touchdowns

Philadelphia at Washington 31-21

The Eagles are crusing, the Redskins, not so much. This will be a good close game that will by a mirror of these team's true talent. However, Donovan McNabb and company may be too much for the Redskins.

Fantasy MVP: Donovan McNabb 250 yards passing 3 touchdowns 1 INT

Carolina at NY Giants 27-17 upset pick/game of the week

The Giants are a good team. However, they've really been missing Plaxico because now they have no redzone receiver, especially since they traded Jeremy Shockey before the season. Now they are missing Brandon Jacobs, their redzone and short yardage back. They can't expect to beat Carolina, as good as the Panthers have been playing, not being able to score in the redzone or convert on 3rd and short.

Fantasy MVP: DeAngelo Williams 140 yards rushing, 40 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns

Green Bay at Chicago 20-24

The Packers have been without a strong running game all year, with Ryan Grant struggling. Whether or not that has been a result of a poor line is questionable, but the facts are that they do struggle with the run and that has shown in their record. The Bears are one of the league's best running teams, going against the Packers poor run defense, in what is supposed to be mid teens temperatures, weather forecast says 15-18 degrees with snow, which also happens to be the temperature where you need to run and stop the run. Advantage home team. Advantage Chicago.

Fantasy MVP: Matt Forte 110 yards rushing 20 yards receiving 2 touchdowns

NFL Week 15 Picks

2008-12-11T17:34:00.000-08:00

New Orleans at Chicago 37-28

Chicago has a decent defense overall, but their cornerbacks can be easily exploited if the opposing quarterback gets time in the pocket. The Saints, on the other hand, with Drew Brees, easily exploit poor secondaries if they get enough. With one of a mediocre pass rush, Chicago, going against the Saints’ great pass blocking, the Saints should have enough time to exploit the Bears secondary, especially since their quarterback is Drew Brees, one of the best in the game at exploiting poor pass defenses.

Fantasy MVP: Drew Brees 330 passing yards 3 touchdowns 1 INT

Tampa Bay at Atlanta 27-31

There isn’t a whole lot of logic in this pick, expect for the fact that the NFC South is 24-2 at home this season and no team has lost a divisional home game. Since this game is an NFC South division game, I’m going to go with the trend take Matt Ryan and the home team Falcons, who are longer for revenge after losing on the road last week.

Fantasy MVP: Matt Ryan 230 passing yards 3 touchdowns 2 INTs

Washington at Cincinnati 31-13

Plain and simple, the Redskins need a win here and a playing one of the worst teams in the league. Expect a blowout here. Clinton Portis will run all over the Bengals to redeem himself after his issue with Coach Jim Zorn last week.

Fantasy MVP: Clinton Portis 140 rushing yards 30 receiving yards 2 touchdowns

Detroit at Indianapolis 7-34 lock pick

The Colts are one of the best teams in the league this year. The Lions are the worst. You do the math. Peyton Manning should have a great game here, as he looks to fluff his stats up for the wide open MVP race.

Fantasy MVP: Peyton Manning 280 passing yards 3 touchdowns O INTs

San Diego at Kansas City 27-20

The Chargers have been inconsistent this year and almost lost to the Chiefs earlier this year. However, the Chargers are in a must win game and the Chiefs aren’t very good so the Chargers are my pick here. It could wind up being closer than the standings or talent disparities behind these teams might predict.

Fantasy MVP: Phillip Rivers 240 passing yards 3 touchdowns 0 INTs

Green Bay at Jacksonville 28-31 upset pick

Both teams under achieved this game and as a result, this match up, which should have had playoff implications, will be two teams playing for bragging rights. The Jags are at home in front of their fans who probably hate them right now, so they’ll come together to beat the Packers, who are really reeling right now.

Fantasy MVP: Maurice Jones Drew 95 rushing yards 60 receiving yards 2 touchdowns

Seattle at St. Louis 24-13

Both teams are very bad, but the Seahawks, with a decent quarterback like Seneca Wallace, should win this game. The ‘Hawks have been close to winning games several times this year, while the Rams get continually blown out and appear to no longer be trying.

Fantasy MVP: Seneca Wallace 230 passing yards 2 touchdowns 2 INTs

San Francisco at Miami 10-28

The 49ers have been on a roll of late and have won several games at home against East coast teams, because they have a major home field advantage in that situation. However, they are going to be at a home field disadvantage this time, traveling to Miami. The Dolphins smell the playoffs and have the talent and the home field necessary to make this a fairly easily win.

Fantasy MVP: Ronnie Brown 105 yards rushing 35 yards receiving 2 touchdowns

Buffalo at NY Jets 13-34

The Jets have been reeling since beating the Titans, but the Bills have been absolutely awful over the past few weeks. The Jets need a win to get right and they should get one here at home against the lowly Bills.

Fantasy MVP: Brett Favre 310 yards passing 3 touchdowns 1 INT

Tennessee at Houston 31-21

The Texans have been doing well lately and should put a bigger fight than expected. However, these are the 12-1 Titans. They won’t lose easily. Their running backs should trample the Texans’ weak run defense.

Fantasy MVP: Chris Johnson 150 yards rushing 30 yards receiving 3 touchdowns

Minnesota at Arizona 24-21 upset pick

Minnesota has their “Wall” back after their suspensions were overruled. They should stop power back Tim Hightower in his tracks and make this a one dimensional team. Their passing game won’t be able to do it alone. Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson and the Vikings’ offense will grind out a tough win.

Fantasy MVP: Adrian Peterson 105 yards rushing 40 yards receiving 2 touchdowns

Denver at Carolina 20-31

After seeing what the Panthers did to the Buccaneers’ great defense last week, imagine what they can do to the Broncos’ horrible run defense. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams should run wild this week and that will propel the Panthers to a fairly easy victory.

Fantasy MVP: DeAngelo Williams 120 yards rushing 45 yards receiving 3 touchdowns

Pittsburgh at Baltimore 23-17 upset pick, game of the week

Pittsburgh showed last week that they can win the messy game and come from behind. Playing the Ravens, they game should be pretty messy. The Steelers have the advantage on both sides of the ball and their defense should destroy the Ravens’ young offense. Expect the Steelers to force many turnovers and score either directly off of team or indirectly off of them with good field position.

Fantasy MVP: Pittsburgh DEF 3 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, 1 Def TD, 4 sacks, 17 points allowed

New England at Oakland 24-21

The Pats are banged up at almost every position you can imagine and now it seems as if Matt Cassel might not play due to the death of his father. However, they are still better than the Raiders. The Pats have been on the West Coast since last week’s close call in Seattle, so they won’t be affected by the time difference at all. Expect some obscure player you’ve never heard of lead the Pats to a close victory with a huge play late.

Fantasy MVP: Wes Welker 110 yards receiving 1 touchdown

NY Giants at Dallas 31-28

Both teams didn’t look good last week, however, the Giants have looked better all year. The Giants running game is very good and should be able to lead them to a close, come from behind, road victory against Dallas. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if this went either way.

Fantasy MVP: Tony Romo 280 yards passing 3 touchdowns 2 INTs

Cleveland at Philadelphia 10-31

The Eagles have heated up lately. The Browns are going the other way. It seems like a simple choice between Donovan McNabb and Ken Dorsey, especially when you add in the Eagles’ Brian Westbrook and that great, and greatly under rated, defense.

Fantasy MVP: Philadelphia DEF 3 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 4 sacks, 10 points allowed

NFL Week 15 Mock Draft

2008-12-10T21:29:00.001-08:00

Draft order reverse of my Week 15 NFL Power Rankings
http://nflweeklyreport.blogspot.com/2008/12/nfl-week-15-power-rankings.html

1. Detroit Lions 0-13

If Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford comes out, the Lions need to take him. The Falcons proved this season, with Matt Ryan, that when you have a good quarterback, you can mask up a bunch of other holes, which the Lions, at 0-13, certainly have. If Bradford can do what Ryan did this year for the Falcons, and management can bring in some small name, but helpful free agents, like Atlanta did with Michael Turner, and the Lions can be smart with their 2nd first round pick, from Dallas, as Atlanta did when they took Sam Baker, the Lions could once again be a respectable team very quickly.

2. Cincinnati Bengals 1-11-1

When healthy, the Bengals’ passing game alone can win them games. Unfortunately, Carson Palmer has been injured so that hasn’t happened. Ryan Fitzpatrick stepped in and has met turf 36 times in 10 starts. It has gotten to the point where every week he plays in another year off his life expectancy. The running game is picking up a measly 3.3 yards per carry. All of this could be helped, if not fixed, by taking an offensive lineman. Mississippi OT Michael Oher sits here waiting to be drafted. He can keep Palmer healthy next season by stopping the opposing pass rush, bringing back that once formidable passing game. Along with a new running back, which they should use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on, or take either Chris Wells or Knowshon Moreno with a pick they get in return for Chad Ocho Cinco, if they choose to move him, this offense can bring this team back into the playoff race.

3. St. Louis Rams 2-11

The Rams have the same problem as Cincinnati. Marc Bulger is a frail injury prone quarterback, who takes a long time to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the line is frail injury prone Orlando Pace and on the right side of the line is a rotating door of frail injury prone right tackles. 350 pound Alabama OT Andre Smith should be able to help. He can play both right tackle and left and help to keep Bulger healthy so he can have a season like he did in 2006, the last time Pace, and therefore Bulger, was fully healthy.

4. Seattle Seahawks 2-11

Matt Hasselbeck is back, I don’t know why though. Every time he looks up to pass, there’s no one there. It is no longer at the point where they are taking random wide receivers and lining them up like it was earlier in the season, however, his top 2 options are Bobby Engram, 35 years old and counting, and Deion Branch, who hasn’t been healthy since 2005. After them, it gets even worse as Koren Robinson, Jordan Dent, and Courtney Taylor prove week after week that they just can’t catch the football. With Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree still in the board, they need to take him. He might be the most athletically gifted wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson, and that’s saying something.

5. Kansas City Chiefs 2-11

Imagine what it must be like to play quarterback against the Kansas City Chiefs. Drop back to pass, wait 20 seconds for the play to develop, oh there’s a little bit of pressure, finally, too bad I released the ball 15 seconds ago. The Chiefs have 6 sacks this season in 13 games. Jared Allen is gone and they need someone to lineup alongside Tamba Hali. Texas DE Brian Orakpo, one of college football’s most feared pass rushers, should help. He’ll take the pressure off of Hali, who had 7.5 sacks last season alongside Jared Allen, and solidify the pass rush from the other side.

6. Oakland Raiders 3-10

Allow me to step into the shoes of Al Davis for this selection. Hmm, I like fast and I like USC. That 6-3 230 kid just ran a 4.4 40, and he goes to USC, draft him now. That kid is USC FS Taylor Mays, who is an athletic free of nature. With Michael Huff now officially a bust, Mays could be his replacement and hopefully be a little bit less of a bust. He doesn’t fit a need necessarily for the Raiders, but Al Davis is going to fall head over heels in love with him after the combine, so Mays is the pick. If a sane owner were running the show, this pick would have to be Eugene Monroe. This offensive line is awful. Unfortunately for Raider Nation, one is not.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-9

The Jaguars, as any 4-9 team, have a lot of needs. Interior linemen are much needed, but unless they want to draft Eugene Monroe and try to convert him into a guard, this is way too early to draft a guard or center. On the defense, interior linebackers are needed, with Mike Peterson on bad terms and a free agent this off season. However, the pass defense is still awful, ranking 27th in terms of yards per attempt. They tried to fix their pass defense with better pass rushers last off season, but that didn’t work. It’s gotten so bad that Drayton Florence has had to step in alongside Rashean Mathis. They need a long term cornerback to play alongside Mathis and who better that Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins. He’s the only cornerback worth taking here and he makes more sense for the Jags than Monroe or a linebacker like Rey Maualuga or James Laurinaitis.

8. Cleveland Browns 4-9

Their pass defense hasn’t been good either, 29th in terms of yards per attempt. There are three ways that can be fixed. Defensive end, attack the source of the pass, cornerback, defend the pass, or safety, and try to do a little of both. However, with Taylor Mays and Malcolm Jenkins gone, no defensive back merits selection here. With Brian Orakpo gone, it’s hard to see them taking a defensive end here either, though one could make a case for Michael Johnson. The other area they have struggled in is run offense. Jamal Lewis is 29 and averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Jerome Harrison is a good change of pace back, but nothing more. They need to release Lewis and start fresh with a new back. Ohio State RB Chris Wells can take Jamal Lewis’ place as the primary back. Together, assuming Brady Quinn lives up to potential and they can improve their defense with what they get for Derek Anderson.

9. Green Bay Packers 5-8

What the Packers like to do is take best available. While defensive line is their biggest need, I doubt they’ll reach here for an end like Michael Johnson, though that might not be a huge reach, or a defensive tackle like Terence Cody. Virginia OT Eugene Monroe is the best player available here and he can really be a help to the Packers. He can play both tackle and guard. Their tackles combine to be 63 years old and while their guards combine to only weigh 605 pounds. The 21-year-old 325 pound Monroe can help with both. Their offensive line is in the bottom half of the league in terms of sacks allowed, despite having the swift Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, and the bottom third in terms of rushing yards per carry, despite having both Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson at running back.

10. San Francisco 49ers 5-8

I originally liked the idea of the Niners drafting a quarterback, like Matt Stafford, and having him sit a year behind Shaun Hill and become the future of the team in 2010. They could still do that, but Hill has played very well of late, so they can address one of their many other areas of need. Wide receiver is one of those, but with other needs and a conservative coach, they aren’t likely to reach for Darrius Heyward-Bey or Jeremy Maclin. They need a corner, but it might be too early for Vontae Davis, though having both Davis brothers, Vernon and Vontae, might be a nice story. However, something tells me Mike Singletary wouldn’t like Vernon’s brother either. Defensive line is a major need. Justin Smith got big bucks and hasn’t lived up to it. If they were to draft a defensive end, like Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson, some of the pressure would be taken off of Smith. Last year’s first round pick Kentawn Balmer could also move back to defensive tackle where he belongs, rather than play left end. That makes the most sense.

11. San Diego Chargers 5-8

The Chargers, despite their 5-8 record, do not have a lot of glaring needs, except for maybe offensive line. Eugene Monroe, as well as Andre Smith and Michael Oher, is off the board, so they probably should go that route and reach for someone like Jason Smith or Ciron Black. Because of that they can go the route of best available player that’s not a quarterback. That player would be USC MLB Rey Maualuga. Their middle linebackers could stand to be upgraded. Maualuga would be an upgrade both Tim Robbins and Stephen Cooper. He would fit well into San Diego’s 3-4 defense because he wouldn’t be the only middle linebacker out there. This way he wouldn’t be overwhelmed as a rookie and could ease into the system.

12. Buffalo Bills 6-7

The Bills decline this season is a head scratching one but I think it can be credited to their decline in pass defense. Their corners are fine, in fact they used a first rounder on Leodis McKlevin last year and he has done fine. However, with Aaron Schobel, injury and age, possibly done as an elite pass rusher for his career, they need to get a #1 pass rusher quick. Quarterbacks are getting too much time in the pocket against them. Mississippi DE Greg Hardy is the best pass rusher left on the board.

13. Houston Texans 6-7

The Texans need help everywhere on defense, except for right end, where Mario Williams has been a stud. However, they need to improve their defense fast, because their talented offense will just waste away if they do not. They can take best player overall, which in this case is Wake Forest OLB Aaron Curry. He’d certainly be an upgrade over both Morlon Greenwood and Zac Diles, who have 3 combined what I like to call skill stats for linebackers, interceptions, forced fumbles, and sacks. It’s no wonder Houston gives up 4.6 yards per carry, 26th best in the league. Curry and young up and coming Xavier Adibi, 4th round pick in 2008, could combine to make a great young outside linebacker duo.

14. New Orleans Saints 7-6

The Saints defense needs helps everywhere, most notably at outside linebacker, defensive end, and safety. Outside linebacker is out of the question, unfortunately, with Curry just going to Houston. Curry could have definitely helped them out a lot more. As for defensive end, Everette Brown is a possibility. However, Kevin Kaesviharn was starting at safety before he got injured. His replacement is going to be worse. That free safety position is a mess, and one that needs to be cleaned up quick otherwise teams will continue to beat them deep next season. They ranked 26th against the pass in terms of yards per game and with mega talent Missouri FS William Moore on the board, they need to take him. He helps them more that Brown would.

15. Washington Redskins 7-6

The Redskins are decent against the pass this year, but with DeAngelo Hall a free agent this off season and Shawn Springs being 34, they need to take a cornerback of the future. They really don’t have any other glaring needs, except possibly defensive end. However, that will have to wait, because Illinois CB Vontae Davis is still on the board. Davis has as much potential as any cornerback in the draft class. They need a future #1 to pair with Carlos Rogers. Rogers and Davis would be a scary duo.

16. Philadelphia Eagles 7-5-1

The Eagles line has been subpar this season, for an Andy Reid team, and it could get a lot worse with the possible free agent departures of both starting tackles, Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan. Even if neither leaves, they could use an offensive tackle of the future with Thomas and Runyan combining at be 69 years old. Baylor OT Jason Smith is a very raw offensive tackle with a lot of potential. He would make a lot of sense for them at this point. If it looks for sure like Runyan and Thomas will leave, this pick could be Ciron Black, a more polished offensive lineman who could step in right away. However, I’m making the assumption that they will be making this pick with the assumption of both returning and needing a future offensive tackle, who could step in if needed in 2009, if one were to leave.

17. Miami Dolphins 8-5

There’s no doubt in my mind their biggest weakness is defending the pass. However, unless Vontae Davis is still available, don’t expect them to reach for a corner. Especially if a middle linebacker like Ohio State MLB James Laurinaitis is available. Bill Parcells love his linebackers and they need a long term middle linebacker to replace Zach Thomas, now in Dallas, alongside Channing Crowder. This could also give them to option to move Crowder outside and trade Joey Porter while his value is at its peak, which would definitely be a classic Bill Parcells move.

18. Atlanta Falcons 8-5

It’s amazing what good quarterbacks can do. Matt Ryan single handedly masked all of the Falcons other weaknesses that were so glaring last off season. However, just because he masked them, doesn’t mean they are gone, and they still have a huge hole right in the middle of their defense line at defensive tackle. Plugging that hole with 355 pound Alabama DT Terence Cody makes a lot of sense, especially since the Falcons are still giving up 4.9 yards per carry, good for 3rd worst in the NFL.

19. Chicago Bears 7-6

It’s weird to think of the Bears as not have a good pass rush or defensive ends, because that’s been their signature for years, but that is the case this season. No end has more than 5 sacks this season. Florida State DE Everette Brown, who has 12.5 sacks this season, should help them regain their once great pass rush in this era of speed rushers. Brown runs a 40 in the 4.5s.

20. New England Patriots 8-5

Deltha O'Neal, Lewis Sanders, Jonathan Wilhite, that is the group of cornerbacks that the Patriots have on their roster to play alongside Ellis Hobbs. That needs to be fixed now. Safety and linebacker can wait, the Pats are 28th in the league in yards per passing attempt allowed. Vanderbilt CB DJ Moore might be a bit of a stretch, but they need a cornerback here and he's the best available. He's not a huge stretch and he's better than anyone other than Hobbs.

21. Minnesota Vikings 8-5

The Vikings need a right tackle, but that will have to wait, even with Ciron Black still on the board. Georgia QB Matt Stafford is still on the board. Due to a lack of need at the quarterback position, Stafford has fallen right to the Vikings who need a quarterback. Tavaris Jackson is not the answer; Gus Frerotte is merely a stopgap, a 37-year-old stopgap. Stafford can spend a year as Frerotte’s backup, mature on the bench, and then take over the team in 2010. He won’t be counted on doing too much, with Adrian Peterson to hand the ball to, but he should have the ability to lead his team with his arm if it’s needed. Just imagine how deadly AP will be if opposing teams can’t stack the box anymore. There’s always some potential for bust with a quarterback, but with Stafford, the reward definitely outweighs the risk for the Vikings.

22. New York Jets 8-5

Brett Favre won’t last forever; he could retire any day. They don’t have a successor for him now that Chad Pennington is in Miami. They need one quickly, otherwise they would have to sign one from the always less than stellar free agent class or hand the keys to the team over to Kellen Clemens and his career 59.3 passer rating. They could take one in the 2nd round, but with Florida QB Tim Tebow available they shouldn’t hesitate to draft him. Tebow needs time to mature and a quarterback to learn the game from. There won’t be a team that gives him more time to mature than the Jets will and there isn’t a quarterback active that you will learn more from than Brett Favre, as a young quarterback. Just look at Aaron Rodgers.

23. Denver Broncos 8-5

Andre Hall, Michael Pittman, Selvin Young, Ryan Torain, and now Peyton Hillis, those are all running backs that the Broncos have put in IR this year. They need a steady, stable back for the future. With Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno available, and their lack of a steady running back, the Broncos should take him here. He and Cutler will make a nice quarterback, running back duo.

24. Arizona Cardinals 8-5

Running back is a need for them in the first round, but unless Wells or Moreno fall to them, not likely, they are going to have to pursue other options in the first round. With Tim Hightower’s emergence, they can wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to get a speed back to play off of Hightower’s power running. Ignoring their running back need for now, their biggest needs are interior offensive lineman and defensive end. No interior offensive lineman merits selection here, so they should focus on a defensive end, seeing as their starters have combined for 5.5 sacks. South Florida DE George Selvie is the best player available at this point and fills a need for the Cards. He also could move to outside linebacker if they want him to.

25. Detroit Lions (via DAL) 0-13

The Lions have defensive issues, but they should postpone those until the 2nd round. They should really look to follow Atlanta’s model from last off season. I already have them taking their franchise quarterback in Sam Bradford, now they need a franchise left tackle. LSU OT Ciron Black is long overdue to be drafted. He is not a natural left tackle, but can certainly play there. This would allow them to move Jeff Backus inside to guard where he belongs and successfully upgrade two positions at once.

26. Baltimore Ravens 8-5

What happened to Mark Clayton? Suddenly Joe Flacco's only option is 34-year-old Derrick Mason. They need a wide receiver to breathe some live into that receiving core and who better than Maryland native Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, who is 6-2 and runs a 40 in the 4.3s. He has slipped way too far and Baltimore should take him to help out Joe Flacco.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-4

Joey Galloway and Ike Hillard were the starting wide receivers to start the year. They were a combined 69 years old and both lost their starting jobs. Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton will prove that this year is a fluke for both of them with a year, Bryant possibly even with another team seeing as he’s a free agent this off season. Percy Harvin is the best wide receiver available in terms of talent, but he’s small, injury prone, and inconsistent, which the Bucs are not looking for right now. Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin might be a bit of a reach, but he is the best fit. If Colt McCoy comes out, don’t be surprise if Jon Gruden drafts him on his magical search to find a flawless quarterback. However, I believe McCoy when he says he’s staying for his senior year.

28. Indianapolis Colts 8-5

They used to be able to stop the run. What happened? Even with Bob Sanders back they are still one of the worst run defenses in the league. They definitely need a defensive tackle. They were so desperate to get one at the trade deadline, they traded for Bills cast off John McCargo, before he failed his physical and the trade didn't go through. They are going to make a run at Albert Haynesworth this offseason, but that's no guarantee. The best defensive tackle available is questionable. Fili Moala, Sen'Derrick Marks, and Peria Terry are all possibilities, but Auburn DT Sen'Derrick Marks fits the Colts system better and I think is the best of the three against the run.

29. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-3

Their line was bad last year. Then they lose Alan Faneca and did not replace him. Now, Ben Roethlisberger gets sacked every time looks up seemingly and Willie Parker is struggling without that dominant run blocker to set up his cuts. They need to fix that; the fact that Oklahoma OG Duke Robinson is still available here only adds to that argument. Add in the fact that they have no other real needs and you have a team that needs to draft Duke Robinson.

30. Philadelphia Eagles (via CAR) 7-5-1

This pick might not stay Philly's as they have two picks this year in the first round, and one could possibly be traded to Arizona for Anquan Boldin. However, this they keep it, there's a good chance that they use it on a tight end. There were some rumors, last draft, that Philly might trade their pick to Cleveland for Kellen Winslow Jr. That never happened and they traded the pick for a first rounder this year and some lesser picks last year. Still, LJ Smith might be one of the worst starting tight ends in the league and now it appears he is on bad terms with Andy Reid and might not be brought back this off season. There are plenty of tight ends that have late first to early second round potential, but the one I think is best is Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew. He is a good receiving tight end, with the potential to be like Kellen Winslow or any other good receiving tight end. If Dustin Keller can go first round in 2008, Pettigrew can go first round in 2009.

31. New York Giants 11-2

Their defensive ends are amazing. They lost Michael Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to injury and they still rank 2nd in sacks. Justin Tuck is a pro bowler for sure, Mathias Kiwanuka might be too. However, with Kiwanuka moving up to defensive end, they lost a lot of the strength of their outside linebackers, forcing them to start Danny Clark, and since it looks like Kiwanuka is a defensive end to stay, they need to address that issue. Their outside linebackers have combined for two, count it two, interceptions, sacks, or forced fumbles this season. USC OLB Brian Cushing is the only outside linebacker, and therefore one player, who merits selection here. He could really breathe some life into their linebackers, and move Danny Clark, who in his career, 130 games, has 10 combined sacks, INTs, and forced fumbles, and has been cut by the Raiders because Al Davis didn't even think he could play defense, back where he belongs.

32. Tennessee Titans 12-1

The Titans could use a defensive tackle in case Albert Haynesworth bolts, but both cody and Marks have been drafted already. I see no point in them drafting one when they have other needs. Nick Harper is 34, so they should look at potential replacement options for him at cornerback. They don’t have a true one within the organization so they should use this pick to take Virginia Tech CB Victor Harris. He has the potential to be groomed into that future #2 cornerback alongside Cortland Finnegan.

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

2008-12-09T21:51:00.000-08:00

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Awful

32. Detroit Lions 0-13: Absolutely the worst overall team in the NFL. Their strongest area of the game has been the passing game, and their quarterback is Daunte Culpepper. That’s saying something if the best part of your team is led by a Raiders castoff.

31. Cincinnati Bengals 1-11: Their once great offense has been diminished to a running game full of unsuccessful castoffs and Ryan Fitzpatrick getting knocked to the ground every time he takes a snap. It’s no wonder Chad Johnson wants out.

30. St. Louis Rams 2-11: They look like they mailed the season in weeks ago. Right now they look like they are playing for the #1 draft pick, and they likely are. The only problem is that they already won 2 games, and the Bengals and Lions might not combine to win that many.

Better luck next year

29. Seattle Seahawks 2-11: I don’t know why Matt Hasselbeck came back this season. He has no good receivers and the team is going nowhere, but down. He should have just stayed injured, to prevent further injury. It’s a shame that Mike Holmgren’s final season has come to this.

28. Kansas City Chiefs 2-11: At least they’re trying. They don’t have the most talent, but they could easily have 4 or 5 wins, if it wasn’t for some bad luck, and they have a good young quarterback in Tyler Thigpen, a real diamond in the rough. If they can keep motivated during a tough season like this, they’ve got great hope for the future. I hate to say it, but Herm Edwards has done a good coaching job, even if he’ll likely lose his job after the season.

27. Oakland Raiders 3-10: Allow me to crown the Raiders the league’s most inconsistent team. One week they beat the Broncos, then they lose to the Chiefs, and get destroyed by the Chargers. Hey, at least it’s better that what they were 2 years ago, most consistently awful. It’s progress.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-9: Allow me to take a quote from Bill Simmons, “If this blog were Jack Del Rio, the Jags would have already stopped listening.” That is so true. This team has talent, they just have no chemistry or respect for their young coach. Even Fred Taylor, who is supposed to be their veteran leader, thinks they suck.

Looking forward to a top ten draft pick

25. Cleveland Browns 4-9: Remember when quarterback issues meant that they had too many quarterbacks and couldn’t choose one. It’s funny how things change. Now they have no quarterback, due to injuries. Ken Dorsey is the starter and had a 49.6 rating last week. They need to trade either Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn, preferably Anderson because Quinn is the younger one, and put all of their faith in Quinn, rather than flip flopping. They’d have a new quarterback, new running back, with Jamal Lewis on his way out, and likely new coach. Use a mid round draft pick on a backup for Quinn and keep Dorsey as the 3rd guy.

24. Green Bay Packers 5-8: I honestly am stumped at what happened to this team. Aaron Rodgers has a great line in front of him, a decent duo of backs, and a solid defense, and Rodgers himself hasn’t played so bad, though he’s no Brett Favre, and yet they are 5-8. I would guess it’s a combination of bad luck, high expectations, and last year being a fluke, but that’s just a guess.

23. San Francisco 49ers 5-8: If it wasn’t for that whole pants dropping incident, Mike Singletary is a great coach. His discipline and offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s creativity combine very well. Just think, if it wasn’t for a last second loss to Arizona, this team would be 6-7, 1 game back of the Arizona Cardinals for first, holding a 2-0 tiebreaker over the Cards.

Probably not a playoff team

22. San Diego Chargers 5-8: The Chargers are probably the most disappointing team in terms of talent turning into wins. They’ve had a lot of tough close losses. A lot of that has to do with Coach Norv Turner, who will unfortunately be back next year. However, I think this team still has good players and a solid future. Although, despite not yet being officially eliminated, this team isn’t going anywhere this year

21. Buffalo Bills 6-7: This team will join the short list of 4-0 teams that did not go on to make the playoffs. It really has been a tale of two seasons for them. They’ve had their Super Bowl dark horse caliber season and their awful caliber season.

Making some noise

20. Houston Texans 6-7: They’ve been highly inconsistent this year, but when Matt Schaub plays they are very good. They aren’t as good as many thought they were before the season, but if Schaub can stay healthy and this team improves on defense via the draft or free agency, they could be an 8 win or better team.

19. New Orleans Saints 7-6: Drew Brees should win MVP this season. He is on pace to have the best season of any quarterback ever in terms of stats. Its not his fault the defense can’t stop anyone.

Close, but no cigar

18. Washington Redskins 7-6: The Redskins have had a good season, but it looks like that Baltimore loss was the nail in the coffin. They just aren’t as good as Dallas, Atlanta, and Philly, all of whom they’d have to beat out to win the 2nd and final wild card.

17. Philadelphia Eagles 7-5: The Eagles got a big win over the Giants and are 2-0 in two big games since the Donovan McNabb/Andy Reid mini quarrel in the Baltimore game. The Eagles have a way of finishing strong, so I wouldn’t count them out quite yet, even though they don’t appear to be in a strong position to make the playoffs.

16. Miami Dolphins 8-5: They have surprised the world and now sit in the middle of a tight AFC East race. They could very well win the division, but I see them, as well as New England and the Jets, winning 10 games. However, their loss will be to the Jets, which will lose them the tiebreaker, and force them into the Wild Card race, which I also see them losing. They’ve had a hell of a run though.

15. Atlanta Falcons 8-5: Speaking of hell of a run, the other team that finished in the bottom 3 last year and now is in the middle of a playoff race is 8-5 Atlanta (sorry St. Louis). However, like the Dolphins, I see the Falcons falling up just short, losing the Wild Card tie breaker to Dallas, by way of worse conference record.

On the playoff bubble

14. Chicago Bears 7-6: The Bears are in good position. They don’t have to deal with the Wild Card, they could still easily win their division, despite being 7-6, with Minnesota only 1 game away and without their wall for the rest of the season due to suspension. However, Chicago should come up short as the Vikings make due without both Williamses.

13. New England Patriots 8-5: With the Dolphins losing the division by way of tiebreaker, it would just be up to New England and the New York Jets. However, the Pats are not in a favorable position, with the Jets just needing a win over the Bills to at least nullify the 2nd tiebreaker. With the first one already nullified by the season series split, it would go to the 3rd tiebreaker, which the Jets currently own.

12. Minnesota Vikings 8-5: They might have some trouble stopping the run in the coming weeks, but with a one game division lead and the best running back alive, the Vikings are in very favorable position.

11. New York Jets 8-5: As I said before, the Jets are in the driver’s seat in the AFC East, especially since, sticking with car metaphor, the man steering their team is Brett Favre. He’ll turn it on at the end of the season to help them avenge 2 straight losses and win two of three, if not sweep, a fairly easy 3 game stretch. The real Jets are the ones that won in Tennessee, not the ones that lost in Oakland and San Francisco.

Playoffs and maybe more

10. Denver Broncos 8-5: With a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way, the Broncos, needing only one win to clinch the division, look to be in position to get back to the playoffs. However, once there, they may have some issues defending the run, which is could seriously hurt them come playoff time.

9. Arizona Cardinals 8-5: The Cardinals have clinched their first playoff berth in over a decade. They have a good shot to show, in the playoffs, that they deserve to be there and didn’t just get in because of a weak schedule and no interdivision competition. However, losses against the Giants and Eagles could be signs that this team will struggle come playoff time.

8. Dallas Cowboys 8-5: The Cowboys look to be in good position to make the playoffs and with one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Tony Romo, they are definitely the team no one wants to face in the playoffs. However, as the Pittsburgh game showed, they still have a way of choking under pressure. Plus, if Marion Barber’s injury is serious, they risk becoming one dimensional which could be the death of them.

Dark horses

7. Baltimore Ravens 8-5: I’m not going to say they are as good as they were when they won in 2000. However, their grind it out NFC style of play is going to be an advantage come playoff time in the relatively pass happy AFC. The biggest question with them is, can Joe Flacco lead this team from behind, in the clutch, in the playoffs. So far, he hasn’t proven that that will be something he can do.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-4: For the first time in a while, Tampa’s defense looked vulnerable last week against the Panthers. However, that is what the Panthers’ running game will do to you. They shouldn’t worry about making the playoffs, they will make them. However, they need to prove they can stop running games like the Giants’ and the Panthers’ in the playoffs. They might not be a true contender like two those teams mentioned, but they are still a very solid football team that can surprise some.

5. Indianapolis Colts: 9-4: They got hot at the right time. They have 5 straight wins and could make it 8 by the end of the season, seeing as they have a fairly weak schedule. No one is going to want to face Peyton and the Colts when they are on a roll like that come playoff time. This has to be a scary team.
Elite runner ups

4. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-3: They proved in the Dallas game, once again, that they can win even it isn’t pretty. They aren’t a true grind it out them, because their offense revolves around their quarterback making a lot of throws, but the fact that they can win in so many different ways has to scare some teams.

3. Carolina Panthers 10-3: They got a huge win this week and are knocking on the door of becoming the favorite in the NFC. Their upcoming game against the Giants, week 16, will be huge for both sides, especially Carolina. That is a very winnable game for the Panthers seeing as the Giants are missing a certain 6-5 wide receiver with a hole in his leg.

2. New York Giants 11-2: They didn’t look good this week. They are missing Plaxico and their receiving crew looks subpar at best. They looked slightly distracted as well. However, this team is a machine. They will get through it and get back to winning football games. Philly will be a huge wake up call for them and I expect them to beat Carolina week 16 and reassert their dominance. This is the NFC favorite, if not the NFL favorite.

1. Tennessee Titans 12-1: The Giants are good, but you can’t deny that fact that this team wins games. They play playoff style football every week, with their strong defense and grind it out backs. They should be able to beat any team they face. Now it’s just a matter of going out and doing it.