NFL Mock Draft #4
1. Detroit Lions 0-16
There are two main arguments out there on the subject of who the Lions should pick #1. Some believe they should go the route that Miami did last year and draft an offensive lineman first and then a quarterback. Some believe they should go the route Atlanta did last year and draft a quarterback first and then an offensive lineman. However, there are two main reasons why I believe the Lions should go the route of the Falcons. First, while the Dolphins were a much better team this year, a lot of that had to do with the fact that they signed Chad Pennington in the off season. There is no guarantee that the Lions can do the same thing. Second, this is actually, if you can believe it, a weaker quarterback class than last year. Matt Stafford is at the top of the quarterback class this year, but with Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow returning to school, there isn’t a quarterback after Stafford than is a franchise quarterback. The Lions would be much better off taking the best quarterback available, Georgia QB Matt Stafford first, and then going offensive line at #20, the pick they acquired from Dallas. The offensive line class is much deeper than the quarterback class so if they want the best value for their picks, they should go quarterback and then offensive line, instead of vice versa.
2. St. Louis Rams 2-14
The Rams have huge problems with their offensive line. Marc Bulger is a frail injury prone quarterback, who takes a long time to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the line is frail injury prone Orlando Pace and on the right side of the line is a rotating door of frail injury prone right tackles. Michael Oher is the best offensive lineman available, but Alabama OT Andre Smith is right behind him and he fills more of a need for the Rams because he’s a natural right tackle. All of a sudden, if Pace can stay healthy, they have Pace and Smith at the tackle positions, which is a very strong duo to help keep Marc Bulger healthy, as he was in 2006 when the team won 10 games, or for a young quarterback to mature behind, if they decide to go that direction.
3. Kansas City Chiefs 2-14
Imagine what it must be like to play quarterback against the Kansas City Chiefs. Drop back to pass, wait 20 seconds for the play to develop, oh there’s a little bit of pressure, finally, too bad I released the ball 15 seconds ago. The Chiefs have 10 sacks this season in 16 games. Jared Allen is gone and they need someone to lineup alongside Tamba Hali. Texas DE Brian Orakpo, one of college football’s most feared pass rushers, should help. He’ll take the pressure off of Hali, who had 7.5 sacks last season alongside Jared Allen, and solidify the pass rush from the other side.
4. Seattle Seahawks 4-12
Matt Hasselbeck is back, I don’t know why though. Every time he looks up to pass, there’s no one there. It is no longer at the point where they are taking random wide receivers and lining them up like it was earlier in the season, however, his top 2 options are Bobby Engram, 35 years old and counting, and Deion Branch, who hasn’t been healthy since 2005. After them, it gets even worse as Koren Robinson, Jordan Dent, and Courtney Taylor prove week after week that they just can’t catch the football. With Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree still in the board, they need to take him. He might be the most athletically gifted wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson, and that’s saying something.
5. Cleveland Browns 4-12
The Browns’ defense was miserable last season, 26th in terms of yards per game allowed, so they can go the route of best defensive player available. Wake Forest OLB/MLB Aaron Curry is that player. Willie McGinest just turned 37 and had an awful season last year and isn’t going to be much better next season. Alex Hall was decent in limited action last year, but Curry would be a huge upgrade. If Hall proves to be the real thing, they can shift Hall to defensive end, or shift Curry into the middle where he’d be an upgrade over Andra Davis.
6. Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1
The Bengals offensive line did a lot better late in the season, helping to propel the team to a relatively amazing 4-3-1 record over their last 8 games. However, they still allowed 50 sacks last season helping Ryan Fitzpatrick’s, who once graduated from Harvard, IQ drop every game he played. Carson Palmer is going to be back next season, but if they want to keep him upright for the entire season, they need to get better pass protection. Luckily for them, Ole Miss OT Michael Oher, who has been slipping down draft boards lately, is still available here.
7. Oakland Raiders 5-11
For the purposes of this pick, I will pretend I’m Al Davis (man, am I ugly!). I could scout like a normal owner, or I could just look at the 40 times. It’s much easier and look where it’s gotten me so far. Let’s see, decent 40, decent 40, decent 40, 4.31! I don’t care who that guy is but draft him right now, I don’t care if it’s only the combine, draft him, give him millions and millions of dollars. That player is speedy Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin, who ran a 4.31 in the preseason and could be even faster at the combine. In all seriousness, the Raiders need to go some playmaking receivers for JaMarcus Russell and Maclin might make a little sense here, even though the Raiders desperately need offensive linemen. No matter how much sense the pick makes, I think it will be what Davis and the Raiders do.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11
David Garrard struggled last season throwing 13 picks after throwing only 3 the season before. I don’t know if this explains all of his struggles, but he was sacked 42 times last season. The Jaguars desperately need an upgrade at left tackle of Khalif Barnes, who is probably one of the worst starting left tackles in the league last season. Virginia OT Eugene Monroe would be a huge upgrade there and help Garrard obtain close to 2007 form. He is also a good run blocker which would help their running game which seeming hit a wall (pun intended) last season.
9. Green Bay Packers 6-10
The Packers needed depth behind their age corners Charles Woodson and Al Harris last season and never got it. This season Al Harris got hurt and their lack of depth showed. Harris could be a cap penalty this off season, but even if he isn’t they still need depth at the cornerback position. Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins could start over 34-year-old Al Harris next season, or he could also backup and not have to be rushed into the starting role which might be best for him because cornerback is one of the toughest positions to learn how to play at an NFL level.
10. San Francisco 49ers 7-9
I originally liked the idea of the Niners drafting a quarterback, like Mark Sanchez, and having him sit a year behind Shaun Hill and become the future of the team in 2010. They could still do that, but Hill has played very well of late, so they can address one of their many other areas of need. Wide receiver is one of those, but with other needs and a conservative coach, they aren’t likely to reach for Darrius Heyward-Bey or Percy Harvin. They need a corner, but it might be too early for Vontae Davis, though having both Davis brothers, Vernon and Vontae, might be a nice story. However, something tells me Mike Singletary wouldn’t like Vernon’s brother either. Defensive line is a major need. Justin Smith got big bucks and hasn’t lived up to it. If they were to draft a defensive end, like Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson, some of the pressure would be taken off of Smith. Last year’s first round pick Kentawn Balmer could also move back to defensive tackle where he belongs, rather than play left end. That makes the most sense.
11. Buffalo Bills 7-9
The Bills decline this season is a head scratching one but I think it can be credited to their decline in pass defense. Their corners are fine, in fact they used a first rounder on Leodis McKlevin last year and he has done fine. However, with Aaron Schobel, injury and age, possibly done as an elite pass rusher for his career, they need to get a #1 pass rusher quick. Quarterbacks are getting too much time in the pocket against them. Penn State DE/OLB Aaron Maybin is the best pass rusher left on the board.
12. Denver Broncos 8-8
The Broncos gave 5 yards per carry to opposing running back this season. They are very vulnerable down the middle, with a combination of Marcus Thomas, Dewayne Robertson, and Nate Webster playing on the inside of their defense at defensive tackle and middle linebacker. They’ll probably go with the best player available at either of those two positions. Since they recently hired Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator, they will probably move to a 3-4, putting them in dire need for linebackers. USC MLB Rey Maualuga has already slipped some and I can’t see him slipping much further than Denver at #12.
13. Washington Redskins 8-8
The ‘Skins pass rush was awful this season after Jason Taylor, brought in to save the rush, got hurt. Taylor is going on 35 years old and not very healthy right now so they need someone to play end in case Taylor cannot. Unfortunately, Orakpo, Johnson, and Maybin are all off of the board at this point, so they should lose elsewhere for an end, maybe the 3rd round. Marcus Washington is likely to be cut as a cap causality so they could use a replacement for him. Virginia OLB/DE Clint Sintim would fill that hole for them. Brian Cushing might be the better linebacker here, but Sintim can play defensive end if Jason Taylor can’t come back strong next year. Cushing wouldn’t be able to do that. Sintim is probably the better pass rusher too, which is the Redskins’ biggest need.
14. New Orleans Saints 8-8
The Saints defense needs helps everywhere, most notably at outside linebacker, defensive end, and safety. Outside linebacker is out of the question, unfortunately, with Curry just going to Washington. Curry could have definitely helped them out a lot more. As for defensive end, Everette Brown is a possibility. However, Kevin Kaesviharn was starting at safety before he got injured. His replacement is going to be worse. That free safety position is a mess, and one that needs to be cleaned up quick otherwise teams will continue to beat them deep next season. They ranked 23rd against the pass in terms of yards per game and with mega talent Missouri FS William Moore on the board, they need to take him. He helps them more that Brown would.
15. Houston Texans 8-8
The Texans need help almost everywhere on defense. Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are decent, but the defense ranked 27th in the league in points per game allowed, to cancel out their deadly offense. Defensive line is probably the most likely, seeing as that’s something that the Texans always seem to draft when they have holes there. They could use an upgrade over Anthony Weaver at end. Florida State DE Everette Brown’s stock is rising right now, so he might not be available in this spot, but if he is, they need to take him. He was one of college football’s best pass rushers last season. Take away Mario Williams’ 13 sacks, this team only had 12 all last season. Anthony Weaver, who started alongside Williams all season, had 0. He did not record a single sack all season. You’d think a quarterback would slip near him and he’d get credit for it, but he didn’t even do that. No sacks. He needs to be replaced.
16. San Diego Chargers 9-9
LaDainian Tomlinson might be finished as a productive every down back in this league. Darren Sproles is a free agent and could leave for more money somewhere else. Even if he doesn’t, I still don’t like Sproles as an every down back. He proved in the Pittsburgh game that he isn’t big or consistent enough to do that. I like him in the Reggie Bush role, kick returner/punt returner/change of pace back/slot receiver. Speed doesn’t automatically make you a good running back. However, if you’re fast, there is something you can do to help a football team. Sproles just isn’t a running back. Since neither he or LT seem capable of being every down backs for a title contending team, and since the Chargers have no other needs, they should take Ohio State RB Chris Wells here and trade LT while he still has some value. If they wait a season, they might have to flat out release him, but now they might even be able to get a 2nd round pick for him, or at least a 3rd. Wells can take over right away as a starting running back, with Sproles in the Reggie Bush role. This might be able to become a deadly offense once again next season.
17. New York Jets 9-7
The Jets don’t have huge glaring needs, so they can draft best available here. That would be Ohio State MLB James Laurinaitis, a 3 time All-American. Their middle linebackers could stand to be upgraded, especially since both are 31 years old, and David Bowens isn’t having that good of a season to beginning with.
18. Chicago Bears 9-7
The Bears biggest need right now is getting better pass rushers to put pressure on the quarterback. They have a strong steady defense, deadly against the run, but their lack of a pass rush put their pass defense in the bottom half in the majority of the major pass defense categories. However, due to underclassmen like Greg Hardy, George Selvie, and Greg Middleton returning to school, there isn’t one that merits selection here. Rather than reaching for Tyson Jackson, the Bears should focus on other needs. The Bears got so desperate for wide receivers last year that they converted Devin Hester. That didn’t work as Devin Hester couldn’t balance being both a kick returner and wide receiver, ending up being mediocre at both. They need to draft a receiver so they can keep Hester in the slot and on special teams. Maryland WR Darrius Heyward Bey is the type of athlete they need to add to their receiving core. He didn’t have a great year last year, but he’s 6-3 and runs a 4.32 40. He’s also an extremely hard worker so I see no reason why he can’t grow into the future #1 option of the Bears.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7
When I first made this mock draft, I had Mark Sanchez going here. While writing the mock, Jon Gruden was fired so I had a change my pick. Sanchez likely would have gone here if Jon Gruden was still in charge and on his magical quest on find the perfect quarterback. However, with a new regime in town, I doubt they’ll take a signal caller, at least in the first round. Earnest Graham had a great 2007, but he was an injury risk in 2008, plus he just turned 29, which isn’t good for a running back. Cadillac Williams is probably never going to be Cadillac Williams again, even though his return is somewhat miraculous. Warrick Dunn can’t shoulder the load by himself next year if Graham and Williams get hurt or flat out can’t be effective. The reason they collapsed late in the season is because Dunn had to carry the load and their running game struggled. Dunn is 34 years old. If he couldn’t carry the load last year, he won’t be able to this year. They have some decent players at running back, but they need a feature back and with Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno still available, he should be the pick.
20. Detroit Lions (via DAL) 0-16
The Lions have defensive issues, but they should postpone those until the 2nd round. They should really look to follow Atlanta’s model from last off season. I already have them taking their franchise quarterback in Matt Stafford, now they need a franchise left tackle. Baylor OT Jason Smith is long overdue to be drafted. He is not a natural left tackle, but can certainly play there. This would allow them to move Jeff Backus inside to guard where he belongs and successfully upgrade two positions at once.
21. Philadelphia Eagles 11-6-1
The Eagles offensive line was mediocre last season, especially for an Andy Reid team. It could get worse this off season as Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan are both free agents. Even if they do return, they still need an offensive tackle here. Runyan is 35 and Thomas 34. They aren’t going to be around forever even if they do resign. Eben Britton is the best offensive tackle available, but looking at the trends, 310 pound Eben Britton might not be big enough for Andy Reid’s taste. Reid’s offensive line doesn’t have a single starter weighing less than 321 pounds, including 4 players over 330. This is no coincidence. It may be that Reid feels bigger offensive linemen are better. It may be that surrounding himself with bigger offensive linemen helps him feel better about his own weight problems. I don’t know, but I know that if given the choice between 310 Britton and 340 pound Oklahoma OT Phil Loadholt, Reid is going to take Loadholt, even if he’s a little bit lower rated of a prospect. Loadholt is still a great offensive tackle that can help this line out in the future.
22. Minnesota Vikings 10-7
The Vikings could take a quarterback here. Mark Sanchez is still on the board. However, Brad Childress is still coaching. He still believes in Tavaris Jackson enough to give him another shot. He might take a quarterback later in the draft, but he’s not going to take one here. The team has a huge hole at right tackle that they should look to fill here. Arizona OT Eben Britton is still available. He can play on the right side and help protect Jackson as he tries to prove he is in fact a capable quarterback (somehow I’m skeptical). Nevertheless, this pick is going to be an offensive lineman as long as Britton is available and Childress is head coach.
23. New England Patriots 11-5
The Patriots some how won 11 games this season despite the fact that their cornerback are awful. Ever since Asante Samuel left, Ellis Hobbs has been the #1 corner, and there really has been no legitimate #2 cornerback, with Belicheck using a weird rotation of Lewis Sander, Deltha O’Neal, and Jonathan Wilhite. Illinois CB Vontae Davis should be a top 5 or top 10 pick by potential, but he has slipped due to discipline problems. Davis has the potential to turn into that #1 corner, with Hobbs shifting back to the #2. Even if he does not reach his full potential, he is better than any corner they have other than Hobbs and better than any other corner available in the draft.
24. Atlanta Falcons 11-5
It’s amazing what good quarterbacks can do. Matt Ryan single handedly masked all of the Falcons other weaknesses that were so glaring last off season. However, just because he masked them, doesn’t mean they are gone, and they still have a huge hole right in the middle of their defense line at defensive tackle. Plugging that hole with 310 pound USC DT Fili Moala, once projected a top 10 pick, makes a lot of sense, especially since the Falcons are still giving up 4.9 yards per carry, good for 5th worst in the NFL.
25. Miami Dolphins 11-6
Bill Parcells likes linebackers, especially ones who were well coached in college. Brian Cushing fits that mold. He went to USC and could help the Dolphins current holes at linebacker, as well as be an eventually replacement for Joey Porter. However, Bill Parcells isn’t stupid. He knows his team played an unbelievably easy schedule this year and, despite the fact that they didn’t really play that many top quarterbacks, they looked like one of the worst pass defenses every week. He knows his team is going to have to play a tough schedule next year, including games against Big Ben and Pittsburgh, Peyton Manning and the Colts, Tom Brady and the Patriots, twice, and Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Having Will Allen as your top corner isn’t going to cut it. Vanderbilt CB DJ Moore is going to be able to add some fire to the defensive backfield next year and for years to come. Remember, this team is still a work in progress, a rebuilding project that just happened to win the division last year. They still need to focus on the future and they can’t go into the future without good cornerbacks.
26. Baltimore Ravens 13-5
What happened to Mark Clayton? Suddenly Joe Flacco's only option is 34-year-old Derrick Mason. They need a wide receiver to breathe some live into that receiving core. Florida RB/WR Percy Harvin isn’t a true wide receiver, but, as Miami proved with Ted Ginn, speed doesn’t need a position to help your team and Harvin, who is projected to run a 40 between 4.27 and 4.31 at the combine, has plenty of speed. He would provide the playmaker, either out of backfield or lining up at receiver, that Joe Flacco lacked this year. He could also play some wildcat and help on some reverses and in the return game.
27. Philadelphia Eagles (via CAR) 11-6-1
There were some rumors, last draft, that Philly might trade their pick to Cleveland for Kellen Winslow Jr. That never happened and they traded the pick for a first rounder this year and some lesser picks last year. Still, LJ Smith might be one of the worst starting tight ends in the league and now it appears he is on bad terms with Andy Reid and might not be brought back this off season. There are plenty of tight ends that have late first to early second round potential, but the one I think is best is Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew. He is a good receiving tight end, with the potential to be like Kellen Winslow or any other good receiving tight end. If Dustin Keller can go first round in 2008, Pettigrew can go first round in 2009.
28. Indianapolis Colts 12-5
They used to be able to stop the run. What happened? Even with Bob Sanders back they are still one of the worst run defenses in the league. They definitely need a defensive tackle. They were so desperate to get one at the trade deadline, they traded for Bills cast off John McCargo, before he failed his physical and the trade didn't go through. They are going to make a run at Albert Haynesworth this offseason, but that's no guarantee. The best defensive tackle available is questionable. BJ Raji, Sen'Derrick Marks, and Peria Jerry are all possibilities, but Auburn DT Sen'Derrick Marks fits the Colts system better and I think is the best of the three against the run.
29. New York Giants 13-4
The Giants showed late in the season that Eli Manning sucks without Plaxico Burress. It has gotten so bad that they are thinking of bringing him back next season while he is on trial. The Giants made a stand by suspending him and going back on that now would be something that the organization as a whole would have trouble recovering from. Instead of bringing back Plax, draft Rutgers WR Kenny Britt, a 6-5 receiver who plays similar to Plax. They might be able to get Britt when they draft, with New Orleans’ selection, in the 2nd round. However, they don’t want to risk it. Linebacker is a need for them and Brian Cushing would fit here, but they can get a linebacker next round. They might be able to make a selection that would cut their ties for Plax next round. They can do that here and they need to.
30. Tennessee Titans 13-4
Corner is a definite need for the Titans, but the more I think about it, the less I see them reaching for Victor Harris. Jeff Fisher would probably be the one making the pick for them, so I think this will be a front 4 player. Albert Haynesworth is a free agent after the season, and if he goes, so could their success. They need a safety net at defensive tackle. Boston College DT BJ Raji is the best and biggest defensive tackle remaining, which the Titans love. Even if Haynesworth returns, Raji and Haynesworth together on the inside of that line would make this team even more dangerous.
31. Arizona Cardinals 11-7*
The Cardinals have two major needs, running back and defensive end. However, they are well enough off at those two positions to wait until later in the draft if they have to, rather than reaching for Paul Kruger or LeSean McCoy. Since they don’t have any other needs, they can afford to draft the man scouts are calling the best offensive line prospect in the draft and the best center prospect in years, California C Alex Mack. Mack has slipped here just because there never is a need for centers, but he has the talent to be one of the top players in this draft class. The Cardinals signed Al Johnson to a big contract a while back, but he is injured and may never play again. They need an upgrade over Lyle Sendlien at center, especially since this is a power running team. With no glaring needs, they can afford to get a major upgrade at that position with Alex Mack.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 14-3**
Their line was bad last year. Then they lose Alan Faneca and did not replace him. Now, Ben Roethlisberger gets sacked every time looks up seemingly and Willie Parker is struggling without that dominant run blocker to set up his cuts. They need to fix that; the fact that Oklahoma OG Duke Robinson is still available here only adds to that argument. Add in the fact that they have no other real needs and you have a team that needs to draft Duke Robinson.
*=my pick to win NFC
**=my pick to win AFC and Super Bowl
There are two main arguments out there on the subject of who the Lions should pick #1. Some believe they should go the route that Miami did last year and draft an offensive lineman first and then a quarterback. Some believe they should go the route Atlanta did last year and draft a quarterback first and then an offensive lineman. However, there are two main reasons why I believe the Lions should go the route of the Falcons. First, while the Dolphins were a much better team this year, a lot of that had to do with the fact that they signed Chad Pennington in the off season. There is no guarantee that the Lions can do the same thing. Second, this is actually, if you can believe it, a weaker quarterback class than last year. Matt Stafford is at the top of the quarterback class this year, but with Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow returning to school, there isn’t a quarterback after Stafford than is a franchise quarterback. The Lions would be much better off taking the best quarterback available, Georgia QB Matt Stafford first, and then going offensive line at #20, the pick they acquired from Dallas. The offensive line class is much deeper than the quarterback class so if they want the best value for their picks, they should go quarterback and then offensive line, instead of vice versa.
2. St. Louis Rams 2-14
The Rams have huge problems with their offensive line. Marc Bulger is a frail injury prone quarterback, who takes a long time to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the line is frail injury prone Orlando Pace and on the right side of the line is a rotating door of frail injury prone right tackles. Michael Oher is the best offensive lineman available, but Alabama OT Andre Smith is right behind him and he fills more of a need for the Rams because he’s a natural right tackle. All of a sudden, if Pace can stay healthy, they have Pace and Smith at the tackle positions, which is a very strong duo to help keep Marc Bulger healthy, as he was in 2006 when the team won 10 games, or for a young quarterback to mature behind, if they decide to go that direction.
3. Kansas City Chiefs 2-14
Imagine what it must be like to play quarterback against the Kansas City Chiefs. Drop back to pass, wait 20 seconds for the play to develop, oh there’s a little bit of pressure, finally, too bad I released the ball 15 seconds ago. The Chiefs have 10 sacks this season in 16 games. Jared Allen is gone and they need someone to lineup alongside Tamba Hali. Texas DE Brian Orakpo, one of college football’s most feared pass rushers, should help. He’ll take the pressure off of Hali, who had 7.5 sacks last season alongside Jared Allen, and solidify the pass rush from the other side.
4. Seattle Seahawks 4-12
Matt Hasselbeck is back, I don’t know why though. Every time he looks up to pass, there’s no one there. It is no longer at the point where they are taking random wide receivers and lining them up like it was earlier in the season, however, his top 2 options are Bobby Engram, 35 years old and counting, and Deion Branch, who hasn’t been healthy since 2005. After them, it gets even worse as Koren Robinson, Jordan Dent, and Courtney Taylor prove week after week that they just can’t catch the football. With Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree still in the board, they need to take him. He might be the most athletically gifted wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson, and that’s saying something.
5. Cleveland Browns 4-12
The Browns’ defense was miserable last season, 26th in terms of yards per game allowed, so they can go the route of best defensive player available. Wake Forest OLB/MLB Aaron Curry is that player. Willie McGinest just turned 37 and had an awful season last year and isn’t going to be much better next season. Alex Hall was decent in limited action last year, but Curry would be a huge upgrade. If Hall proves to be the real thing, they can shift Hall to defensive end, or shift Curry into the middle where he’d be an upgrade over Andra Davis.
6. Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1
The Bengals offensive line did a lot better late in the season, helping to propel the team to a relatively amazing 4-3-1 record over their last 8 games. However, they still allowed 50 sacks last season helping Ryan Fitzpatrick’s, who once graduated from Harvard, IQ drop every game he played. Carson Palmer is going to be back next season, but if they want to keep him upright for the entire season, they need to get better pass protection. Luckily for them, Ole Miss OT Michael Oher, who has been slipping down draft boards lately, is still available here.
7. Oakland Raiders 5-11
For the purposes of this pick, I will pretend I’m Al Davis (man, am I ugly!). I could scout like a normal owner, or I could just look at the 40 times. It’s much easier and look where it’s gotten me so far. Let’s see, decent 40, decent 40, decent 40, 4.31! I don’t care who that guy is but draft him right now, I don’t care if it’s only the combine, draft him, give him millions and millions of dollars. That player is speedy Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin, who ran a 4.31 in the preseason and could be even faster at the combine. In all seriousness, the Raiders need to go some playmaking receivers for JaMarcus Russell and Maclin might make a little sense here, even though the Raiders desperately need offensive linemen. No matter how much sense the pick makes, I think it will be what Davis and the Raiders do.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11
David Garrard struggled last season throwing 13 picks after throwing only 3 the season before. I don’t know if this explains all of his struggles, but he was sacked 42 times last season. The Jaguars desperately need an upgrade at left tackle of Khalif Barnes, who is probably one of the worst starting left tackles in the league last season. Virginia OT Eugene Monroe would be a huge upgrade there and help Garrard obtain close to 2007 form. He is also a good run blocker which would help their running game which seeming hit a wall (pun intended) last season.
9. Green Bay Packers 6-10
The Packers needed depth behind their age corners Charles Woodson and Al Harris last season and never got it. This season Al Harris got hurt and their lack of depth showed. Harris could be a cap penalty this off season, but even if he isn’t they still need depth at the cornerback position. Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins could start over 34-year-old Al Harris next season, or he could also backup and not have to be rushed into the starting role which might be best for him because cornerback is one of the toughest positions to learn how to play at an NFL level.
10. San Francisco 49ers 7-9
I originally liked the idea of the Niners drafting a quarterback, like Mark Sanchez, and having him sit a year behind Shaun Hill and become the future of the team in 2010. They could still do that, but Hill has played very well of late, so they can address one of their many other areas of need. Wide receiver is one of those, but with other needs and a conservative coach, they aren’t likely to reach for Darrius Heyward-Bey or Percy Harvin. They need a corner, but it might be too early for Vontae Davis, though having both Davis brothers, Vernon and Vontae, might be a nice story. However, something tells me Mike Singletary wouldn’t like Vernon’s brother either. Defensive line is a major need. Justin Smith got big bucks and hasn’t lived up to it. If they were to draft a defensive end, like Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson, some of the pressure would be taken off of Smith. Last year’s first round pick Kentawn Balmer could also move back to defensive tackle where he belongs, rather than play left end. That makes the most sense.
11. Buffalo Bills 7-9
The Bills decline this season is a head scratching one but I think it can be credited to their decline in pass defense. Their corners are fine, in fact they used a first rounder on Leodis McKlevin last year and he has done fine. However, with Aaron Schobel, injury and age, possibly done as an elite pass rusher for his career, they need to get a #1 pass rusher quick. Quarterbacks are getting too much time in the pocket against them. Penn State DE/OLB Aaron Maybin is the best pass rusher left on the board.
12. Denver Broncos 8-8
The Broncos gave 5 yards per carry to opposing running back this season. They are very vulnerable down the middle, with a combination of Marcus Thomas, Dewayne Robertson, and Nate Webster playing on the inside of their defense at defensive tackle and middle linebacker. They’ll probably go with the best player available at either of those two positions. Since they recently hired Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator, they will probably move to a 3-4, putting them in dire need for linebackers. USC MLB Rey Maualuga has already slipped some and I can’t see him slipping much further than Denver at #12.
13. Washington Redskins 8-8
The ‘Skins pass rush was awful this season after Jason Taylor, brought in to save the rush, got hurt. Taylor is going on 35 years old and not very healthy right now so they need someone to play end in case Taylor cannot. Unfortunately, Orakpo, Johnson, and Maybin are all off of the board at this point, so they should lose elsewhere for an end, maybe the 3rd round. Marcus Washington is likely to be cut as a cap causality so they could use a replacement for him. Virginia OLB/DE Clint Sintim would fill that hole for them. Brian Cushing might be the better linebacker here, but Sintim can play defensive end if Jason Taylor can’t come back strong next year. Cushing wouldn’t be able to do that. Sintim is probably the better pass rusher too, which is the Redskins’ biggest need.
14. New Orleans Saints 8-8
The Saints defense needs helps everywhere, most notably at outside linebacker, defensive end, and safety. Outside linebacker is out of the question, unfortunately, with Curry just going to Washington. Curry could have definitely helped them out a lot more. As for defensive end, Everette Brown is a possibility. However, Kevin Kaesviharn was starting at safety before he got injured. His replacement is going to be worse. That free safety position is a mess, and one that needs to be cleaned up quick otherwise teams will continue to beat them deep next season. They ranked 23rd against the pass in terms of yards per game and with mega talent Missouri FS William Moore on the board, they need to take him. He helps them more that Brown would.
15. Houston Texans 8-8
The Texans need help almost everywhere on defense. Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are decent, but the defense ranked 27th in the league in points per game allowed, to cancel out their deadly offense. Defensive line is probably the most likely, seeing as that’s something that the Texans always seem to draft when they have holes there. They could use an upgrade over Anthony Weaver at end. Florida State DE Everette Brown’s stock is rising right now, so he might not be available in this spot, but if he is, they need to take him. He was one of college football’s best pass rushers last season. Take away Mario Williams’ 13 sacks, this team only had 12 all last season. Anthony Weaver, who started alongside Williams all season, had 0. He did not record a single sack all season. You’d think a quarterback would slip near him and he’d get credit for it, but he didn’t even do that. No sacks. He needs to be replaced.
16. San Diego Chargers 9-9
LaDainian Tomlinson might be finished as a productive every down back in this league. Darren Sproles is a free agent and could leave for more money somewhere else. Even if he doesn’t, I still don’t like Sproles as an every down back. He proved in the Pittsburgh game that he isn’t big or consistent enough to do that. I like him in the Reggie Bush role, kick returner/punt returner/change of pace back/slot receiver. Speed doesn’t automatically make you a good running back. However, if you’re fast, there is something you can do to help a football team. Sproles just isn’t a running back. Since neither he or LT seem capable of being every down backs for a title contending team, and since the Chargers have no other needs, they should take Ohio State RB Chris Wells here and trade LT while he still has some value. If they wait a season, they might have to flat out release him, but now they might even be able to get a 2nd round pick for him, or at least a 3rd. Wells can take over right away as a starting running back, with Sproles in the Reggie Bush role. This might be able to become a deadly offense once again next season.
17. New York Jets 9-7
The Jets don’t have huge glaring needs, so they can draft best available here. That would be Ohio State MLB James Laurinaitis, a 3 time All-American. Their middle linebackers could stand to be upgraded, especially since both are 31 years old, and David Bowens isn’t having that good of a season to beginning with.
18. Chicago Bears 9-7
The Bears biggest need right now is getting better pass rushers to put pressure on the quarterback. They have a strong steady defense, deadly against the run, but their lack of a pass rush put their pass defense in the bottom half in the majority of the major pass defense categories. However, due to underclassmen like Greg Hardy, George Selvie, and Greg Middleton returning to school, there isn’t one that merits selection here. Rather than reaching for Tyson Jackson, the Bears should focus on other needs. The Bears got so desperate for wide receivers last year that they converted Devin Hester. That didn’t work as Devin Hester couldn’t balance being both a kick returner and wide receiver, ending up being mediocre at both. They need to draft a receiver so they can keep Hester in the slot and on special teams. Maryland WR Darrius Heyward Bey is the type of athlete they need to add to their receiving core. He didn’t have a great year last year, but he’s 6-3 and runs a 4.32 40. He’s also an extremely hard worker so I see no reason why he can’t grow into the future #1 option of the Bears.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7
When I first made this mock draft, I had Mark Sanchez going here. While writing the mock, Jon Gruden was fired so I had a change my pick. Sanchez likely would have gone here if Jon Gruden was still in charge and on his magical quest on find the perfect quarterback. However, with a new regime in town, I doubt they’ll take a signal caller, at least in the first round. Earnest Graham had a great 2007, but he was an injury risk in 2008, plus he just turned 29, which isn’t good for a running back. Cadillac Williams is probably never going to be Cadillac Williams again, even though his return is somewhat miraculous. Warrick Dunn can’t shoulder the load by himself next year if Graham and Williams get hurt or flat out can’t be effective. The reason they collapsed late in the season is because Dunn had to carry the load and their running game struggled. Dunn is 34 years old. If he couldn’t carry the load last year, he won’t be able to this year. They have some decent players at running back, but they need a feature back and with Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno still available, he should be the pick.
20. Detroit Lions (via DAL) 0-16
The Lions have defensive issues, but they should postpone those until the 2nd round. They should really look to follow Atlanta’s model from last off season. I already have them taking their franchise quarterback in Matt Stafford, now they need a franchise left tackle. Baylor OT Jason Smith is long overdue to be drafted. He is not a natural left tackle, but can certainly play there. This would allow them to move Jeff Backus inside to guard where he belongs and successfully upgrade two positions at once.
21. Philadelphia Eagles 11-6-1
The Eagles offensive line was mediocre last season, especially for an Andy Reid team. It could get worse this off season as Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan are both free agents. Even if they do return, they still need an offensive tackle here. Runyan is 35 and Thomas 34. They aren’t going to be around forever even if they do resign. Eben Britton is the best offensive tackle available, but looking at the trends, 310 pound Eben Britton might not be big enough for Andy Reid’s taste. Reid’s offensive line doesn’t have a single starter weighing less than 321 pounds, including 4 players over 330. This is no coincidence. It may be that Reid feels bigger offensive linemen are better. It may be that surrounding himself with bigger offensive linemen helps him feel better about his own weight problems. I don’t know, but I know that if given the choice between 310 Britton and 340 pound Oklahoma OT Phil Loadholt, Reid is going to take Loadholt, even if he’s a little bit lower rated of a prospect. Loadholt is still a great offensive tackle that can help this line out in the future.
22. Minnesota Vikings 10-7
The Vikings could take a quarterback here. Mark Sanchez is still on the board. However, Brad Childress is still coaching. He still believes in Tavaris Jackson enough to give him another shot. He might take a quarterback later in the draft, but he’s not going to take one here. The team has a huge hole at right tackle that they should look to fill here. Arizona OT Eben Britton is still available. He can play on the right side and help protect Jackson as he tries to prove he is in fact a capable quarterback (somehow I’m skeptical). Nevertheless, this pick is going to be an offensive lineman as long as Britton is available and Childress is head coach.
23. New England Patriots 11-5
The Patriots some how won 11 games this season despite the fact that their cornerback are awful. Ever since Asante Samuel left, Ellis Hobbs has been the #1 corner, and there really has been no legitimate #2 cornerback, with Belicheck using a weird rotation of Lewis Sander, Deltha O’Neal, and Jonathan Wilhite. Illinois CB Vontae Davis should be a top 5 or top 10 pick by potential, but he has slipped due to discipline problems. Davis has the potential to turn into that #1 corner, with Hobbs shifting back to the #2. Even if he does not reach his full potential, he is better than any corner they have other than Hobbs and better than any other corner available in the draft.
24. Atlanta Falcons 11-5
It’s amazing what good quarterbacks can do. Matt Ryan single handedly masked all of the Falcons other weaknesses that were so glaring last off season. However, just because he masked them, doesn’t mean they are gone, and they still have a huge hole right in the middle of their defense line at defensive tackle. Plugging that hole with 310 pound USC DT Fili Moala, once projected a top 10 pick, makes a lot of sense, especially since the Falcons are still giving up 4.9 yards per carry, good for 5th worst in the NFL.
25. Miami Dolphins 11-6
Bill Parcells likes linebackers, especially ones who were well coached in college. Brian Cushing fits that mold. He went to USC and could help the Dolphins current holes at linebacker, as well as be an eventually replacement for Joey Porter. However, Bill Parcells isn’t stupid. He knows his team played an unbelievably easy schedule this year and, despite the fact that they didn’t really play that many top quarterbacks, they looked like one of the worst pass defenses every week. He knows his team is going to have to play a tough schedule next year, including games against Big Ben and Pittsburgh, Peyton Manning and the Colts, Tom Brady and the Patriots, twice, and Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Having Will Allen as your top corner isn’t going to cut it. Vanderbilt CB DJ Moore is going to be able to add some fire to the defensive backfield next year and for years to come. Remember, this team is still a work in progress, a rebuilding project that just happened to win the division last year. They still need to focus on the future and they can’t go into the future without good cornerbacks.
26. Baltimore Ravens 13-5
What happened to Mark Clayton? Suddenly Joe Flacco's only option is 34-year-old Derrick Mason. They need a wide receiver to breathe some live into that receiving core. Florida RB/WR Percy Harvin isn’t a true wide receiver, but, as Miami proved with Ted Ginn, speed doesn’t need a position to help your team and Harvin, who is projected to run a 40 between 4.27 and 4.31 at the combine, has plenty of speed. He would provide the playmaker, either out of backfield or lining up at receiver, that Joe Flacco lacked this year. He could also play some wildcat and help on some reverses and in the return game.
27. Philadelphia Eagles (via CAR) 11-6-1
There were some rumors, last draft, that Philly might trade their pick to Cleveland for Kellen Winslow Jr. That never happened and they traded the pick for a first rounder this year and some lesser picks last year. Still, LJ Smith might be one of the worst starting tight ends in the league and now it appears he is on bad terms with Andy Reid and might not be brought back this off season. There are plenty of tight ends that have late first to early second round potential, but the one I think is best is Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew. He is a good receiving tight end, with the potential to be like Kellen Winslow or any other good receiving tight end. If Dustin Keller can go first round in 2008, Pettigrew can go first round in 2009.
28. Indianapolis Colts 12-5
They used to be able to stop the run. What happened? Even with Bob Sanders back they are still one of the worst run defenses in the league. They definitely need a defensive tackle. They were so desperate to get one at the trade deadline, they traded for Bills cast off John McCargo, before he failed his physical and the trade didn't go through. They are going to make a run at Albert Haynesworth this offseason, but that's no guarantee. The best defensive tackle available is questionable. BJ Raji, Sen'Derrick Marks, and Peria Jerry are all possibilities, but Auburn DT Sen'Derrick Marks fits the Colts system better and I think is the best of the three against the run.
29. New York Giants 13-4
The Giants showed late in the season that Eli Manning sucks without Plaxico Burress. It has gotten so bad that they are thinking of bringing him back next season while he is on trial. The Giants made a stand by suspending him and going back on that now would be something that the organization as a whole would have trouble recovering from. Instead of bringing back Plax, draft Rutgers WR Kenny Britt, a 6-5 receiver who plays similar to Plax. They might be able to get Britt when they draft, with New Orleans’ selection, in the 2nd round. However, they don’t want to risk it. Linebacker is a need for them and Brian Cushing would fit here, but they can get a linebacker next round. They might be able to make a selection that would cut their ties for Plax next round. They can do that here and they need to.
30. Tennessee Titans 13-4
Corner is a definite need for the Titans, but the more I think about it, the less I see them reaching for Victor Harris. Jeff Fisher would probably be the one making the pick for them, so I think this will be a front 4 player. Albert Haynesworth is a free agent after the season, and if he goes, so could their success. They need a safety net at defensive tackle. Boston College DT BJ Raji is the best and biggest defensive tackle remaining, which the Titans love. Even if Haynesworth returns, Raji and Haynesworth together on the inside of that line would make this team even more dangerous.
31. Arizona Cardinals 11-7*
The Cardinals have two major needs, running back and defensive end. However, they are well enough off at those two positions to wait until later in the draft if they have to, rather than reaching for Paul Kruger or LeSean McCoy. Since they don’t have any other needs, they can afford to draft the man scouts are calling the best offensive line prospect in the draft and the best center prospect in years, California C Alex Mack. Mack has slipped here just because there never is a need for centers, but he has the talent to be one of the top players in this draft class. The Cardinals signed Al Johnson to a big contract a while back, but he is injured and may never play again. They need an upgrade over Lyle Sendlien at center, especially since this is a power running team. With no glaring needs, they can afford to get a major upgrade at that position with Alex Mack.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 14-3**
Their line was bad last year. Then they lose Alan Faneca and did not replace him. Now, Ben Roethlisberger gets sacked every time looks up seemingly and Willie Parker is struggling without that dominant run blocker to set up his cuts. They need to fix that; the fact that Oklahoma OG Duke Robinson is still available here only adds to that argument. Add in the fact that they have no other real needs and you have a team that needs to draft Duke Robinson.
*=my pick to win NFC
**=my pick to win AFC and Super Bowl
Labels: Detroit Lions, Matt Stafford, Mock Draft, NFL, NFL Draft
posted by Steven Lourie at
12:20 PM
3 Comments:
Hi, i like ur mock, u have good thoughts about what teams should do but i disagree with some : I think the Falcons should take Jerry or Raji instead of Moala ! The Giants can have a WR high in second round so Cushing is too good at a postion of need to pass..And i really hope u wrong "being like Al", i wish he will take Monroe or E.Brown.bye.
i got some issues with your mock draft. oakland wont take maclin. thats too much of a reach. well unless he runs below a 4.3 40yrd. they will probably get the best OT availabe, which is eugene monroe. also, i agree that the 49ers should get some one that can put pressure on the qb, but not michael johnson. i prefer aaron maybin or everrette brown alot more. last thing is, where is mark sanchez?
What happened to Mark Sanchez? :/
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