NFL Mock Draft #5 (2 rounds)
First Round
1. Detroit Lions 0-16
There are two main arguments out there on the subject of who the Lions should pick #1. Some believe they should go the route that Miami did last year and draft an offensive lineman first and then a quarterback. Some believe they should go the route Atlanta did last year and draft a quarterback first and then an offensive lineman. However, there are two main reasons why I believe the Lions should go the route of the Falcons. First, while the Dolphins were a much better team this year, a lot of that had to do with the fact that they signed Chad Pennington in the off season. There is no guarantee that the Lions can do the same thing. Second, this is actually, if you can believe it, a weaker quarterback class than last year. Matt Stafford is at the top of the quarterback class this year, but with Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow returning to school, there isn’t a quarterback after Stafford than is a franchise quarterback. The Lions would be much better off taking the best quarterback available, Georgia QB Matt Stafford first, and then going offensive line at #20, the pick they acquired from Dallas. The offensive line class is much deeper than the quarterback class so if they want the best value for their picks, they should go quarterback and then offensive line, instead of vice versa.
2. St. Louis Rams 2-14
The Rams have huge problems with their offensive line. Marc Bulger is a frail injury prone quarterback, who takes a long time to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the line is frail injury prone Orlando Pace and on the right side of the line is a rotating door of frail injury prone right tackles. Eugene Monroe is the best offensive lineman available, but Alabama OT Andre Smith is right behind him and he fills more of a need for the Rams because he’s a natural right tackle. All of a sudden, if Pace can stay healthy, they have Pace and Smith at the tackle positions, which is a very strong duo to help keep Marc Bulger healthy, as he was in 2006 when the team won 10 games, or for a young quarterback to mature behind, if they decide to go that direction.
3. Kansas City Chiefs 2-14
The Chiefs plain and simply need pass rushers and because of that I can’t see this pick being anything other than a pass rusher because the Chiefs only had 10 sacks all year, a record low for an NFL team. What kind of pass rusher, either an end or a linebacker, they take is tough to tell at this point, because the Chiefs are currently a team without a coach. However, their GM Scott Pioli worked with the 3-4 for many years in New England so I have to guess that he will take a coach who uses the 3-4, which would mean that he would need a pass rushing linebacker to fit into the system. Florida State DE/OLB Everette Brown is the type of speed rushing linebacker that would fit into the team’s system and help them get more than 10 sacks next season. Brown had 13.5 sacks by himself last season. If Pioli decides to go with a 4-3 coach, he’s going to draft a pass rushing end in which case this pick would likely be Texas’s Brian Orakpo, but for now I have to assume that the people behind this selection will be drafting for a 3-4.
4. Seattle Seahawks 4-12
Matt Hasselbeck is back, I don’t know why though. Every time he looks up to pass, there’s no one there. It is no longer at the point where they are taking random wide receivers and lining them up like it was earlier in the season, however, his top 2 options are Bobby Engram, 35 years old and counting, and Deion Branch, who hasn’t been healthy since 2005. After them, it gets even worse as Koren Robinson, Jordan Dent, and Courtney Taylor prove week after week that they just can’t catch the football. With Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree still in the board, they need to take him. He might be the most athletically gifted wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson, and that’s saying something.
5. Cleveland Browns 4-12
The Browns’ defense was miserable last season, 26th in terms of yards per game allowed, so they can go the route of best defensive player available. Wake Forest OLB/MLB Aaron Curry is that player. Willie McGinest just turned 37 and had an awful season last year and isn’t going to be much better next season. Alex Hall was decent in limited action last year, but Curry would be a huge upgrade. If Hall proves to be the real thing, they can shift Hall to defensive end, or shift Curry into the middle where he’d be an upgrade over Andra Davis.
6. Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1
The Bengals offensive line did a lot better late in the season, helping to propel the team to a relatively amazing 4-3-1 record over their last 8 games. However, they still allowed 50 sacks last season helping Ryan Fitzpatrick’s, who once graduated from Harvard, IQ drop every game he played. Carson Palmer is going to be back next season, but if they want to keep him upright for the entire season, they need to get better pass protection. Luckily for them, Virginia OT Eugene Monroe is still available here.
7. Oakland Raiders 5-11
For the purposes of this pick, I will pretend I’m Al Davis (man, am I ugly!). I could scout like a normal owner, or I could just look at the 40 times. It’s much easier and look where it’s gotten me so far. Let’s see, decent 40, decent 40, decent 40, 4.31! I don’t care who that guy is but draft him right now, I don’t care if it’s the combine, draft him, give him millions and millions of dollars. That player is speedy Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin, who ran a 4.31 in the preseason and could be even faster at the combine. In all seriousness, the Raiders need to go some playmaking receivers for JaMarcus Russell and Maclin might make a little sense here, even though the Raiders desperately need offensive linemen. No matter how much sense the pick makes, I think it will be what Davis and the Raiders do. If Percy Harvin runs a faster 40, he could be the choice here, but for now I’m going to say that it’ll be Maclin.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11
David Garrard struggled last season throwing 13 picks after throwing only 3 the season before. I don’t know if this explains all of his struggles, but he was sacked 42 times last season. The Jaguars desperately need an upgrade at left tackle of Khalif Barnes, who is probably one of the worst starting left tackles in the league last season. Baylor OT Jason Smith would be a huge upgrade there and help Garrard obtain close to 2007 form.
9. Green Bay Packers 6-10
The Packers were one of the worst run defenses in the league last year, 26th in the league with 4.6 yards per carry allowed. That probably had something to do with the team’s lack of a run stopping defense tackle. Boston College DT BJ Raji has taken advantage of Terrence Cody’s decision to return to school, along with an amazing performance at the Senior Bowl to raise his stock tremendously. If he is still here at this point, Green Bay will take the giant run stopper in a heartbeat.
10. San Francisco 49ers 7-9
This continues to be the most interesting and difficult spot in the first round to predict. The Niners could go so many different ways with this pick. They need a wide receiver, but with Crabtree and Maclin already off of the board, I don’t think that their conservative coach is going to reach for Percy Harvin or Darrius Heyward Bey, especially when the wide receiver class is deep enough for them to take one in the 2nd round. Shaun Hill is a decent quarterback, but not great, so Mark Sanchez could be a possibility. However, with a conservative coach in place, in Mike Singletary who really likes Shaun Hill, I doubt that will be the selection. They have defensive needs, especially for 3-4 linebackers, but Everette Brown is off of the board, so I doubt they’ll reach for Aaron Maybin. Brian Orakpo is a good defensive end, but he’d be too small to fill their need in the 3-4. BJ Raji is off the board, so no defensive tackle is going to be taken here, which leaves the secondary. Safety is the biggest need, but there isn’t a top 10 safety prospect in this draft class. Their cornerbacks were below average last year and shouldn’t be much better this year, especially with Walt Harris set to turn 35 before the season starts and no depth behind him. They need a starting cornerback for the future and Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins could serve in that role.
11. Buffalo Bills 7-9
The Bills decline this season is a head scratching one but I think it can be credited to their decline in pass defense. Their corners are fine, in fact they used a first rounder on Leodis McKlevin last year and he has done fine. However, with Aaron Schobel, injury and age, possibly done as an elite pass rusher for his career, they need to get a #1 pass rusher quick. Quarterbacks are getting too much time in the pocket against them. Texas DE Brian Orakpo could help fill that need quickly.
12. Denver Broncos 8-8
The Broncos gave 5 yards per carry to opposing running back this season. They are very vulnerable down the middle, with a combination of Marcus Thomas, Dewayne Robertson, and Nate Webster playing on the inside of their defense at defensive tackle and middle linebacker. They’ll probably go with the best player available at either of those two positions. Since they recently hired Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator, they will probably move to a 3-4, putting them in dire need for linebackers. USC MLB Rey Maualuga has already slipped some and I can’t see him slipping much further than Denver at #12.
13. Washington Redskins 8-8
The Redskins traded for Jason Taylor this off season with the intention that he would solidify their weak pass rush for a few years to come. However, he got hurt and might not play again, because he’s 34 years old. Even if he comes back next year, their pass rush could stand to be upgraded. In my mind Michael Johnson is the best pass rusher available, but Penn State DE/OLB Aaron Maybin makes more sense for the ‘Skins here because he can play outside linebacker, another weakness, with Marcus Washington likely to be cut as a cap causality, until Taylor calls it quits, if he doesn’t this off season.
14. New Orleans Saints 8-8
The Saints defense was awful enough last season for them to take the best defensive player available. That player would be Ohio State MLB James Laurinaitis. Linebackers are one of their biggest needs. Laurinaitis could play middle linebacker for them if Jonathan Vilma leaves as a free agent, or if Vilma returns, either he or Laurinaitis could move to the outside. The Saints defense is way too awful, ranking 26th in the league in terms of points per game allowed and making sure that Drew Brees’ nearly record setting season translated to only 8 wins, for them to pass up on Laurinaitis, the college stud from Ohio State.
15. Houston Texans 8-8
The Texans need help almost everywhere on defense. Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are decent, but the defense ranked 27th in the league in points per game allowed, to cancel out their deadly offense. Defensive line is probably the most likely, seeing as that’s something that the Texans always seem to draft when they have holes there. They could use an upgrade over Anthony Weaver at end. Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson's stock is rising right now, so he might not be available in this spot, but if he is, they need to take him. He was one of college football’s best pass rushers last season. Take away Mario Williams’ 13 sacks, this team only had 12 all last season. Anthony Weaver, who started alongside Williams all season, had 0. He did not record a single sack all season. You’d think a quarterback would slip near him and he’d get credit for it, but he didn’t even do that. No sacks. He needs to be replaced.
16. San Diego Chargers 9-9
LaDainian Tomlinson might be finished as a productive every down back in this league. Darren Sproles is a free agent and could leave for more money somewhere else. Even if he doesn’t, I still don’t like Sproles as an every down back. He proved in the Pittsburgh game that he isn’t big or consistent enough to do that. I like him in the Reggie Bush role, kick returner/punt returner/change of pace back/slot receiver. Speed doesn’t automatically make you a good running back. However, if you’re fast, there is something you can do to help a football team. Sproles just isn’t a running back. Since neither he or LT seem capable of being every down backs for a title contending team, and since the Chargers have no other needs, they should take Ohio State RB Chris Wells here and trade LT while he still has some value. If they wait a season, they might have to flat out release him, but now they might even be able to get a 2nd round pick for him, or at least a 3rd. Wells can take over right away as a starting running back, with Sproles in the Reggie Bush role. This might be able to become a deadly offense once again next season.
17. NY Jets 9-7
The popular consensus here is that, with a new coaching staff coming in, that the Jets will take a quarterback, for whenever Brett Favre retires, especially if Mark Sanchez is still on the board and possibly even if he is not. However, new head coach Rex Ryan is a defensive guy, which means he’s going to try to patch up any glaring defensive holes first. Their secondary, which gave up the 4th most yards in the league this season, would count as a glaring hole. Illinois CB Vontae Davis is still available and it would surprise me if the Jets didn’t take him. Darrelle Revis is a good #1 corner, but Dwight Lowery makes more sense as a nickel corner, rather than the #2 starter. Davis would fill that role and help patch up the team’s only defensive hole, other than possibly the need for another safety. They are going to get a chance to take a quarterback in the later rounds.
18. Chicago Bears 9-7
The Bears biggest need right now is getting better pass rushers to put pressure on the quarterback. They have a strong steady defense, deadly against the run, but their lack of a pass rush put their pass defense in the bottom half in the majority of the major pass defense categories. However, due to underclassmen like Greg Hardy, George Selvie, and Greg Middleton returning to school, there isn’t one that merits selection here. Rather than reaching for Tyson Jackson, the Bears should focus on other needs. The Bears got so desperate for wide receivers last year that they converted Devin Hester. That didn’t work as Devin Hester couldn’t balance being both a kick returner and wide receiver, ending up being mediocre at both. They need to draft a receiver so they can keep Hester in the slot and on special teams. Maryland WR Darrius Heyward Bey is the type of athlete they need to add to their receiving core. He didn’t have a great year last year, but he’s 6-3 and runs a 4.32 40. He’s also an extremely hard worker so I see no reason why he can’t grow into the future #1 option of the Bears.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7
Rule of thumb, a new coaching regime almost always takes a new quarterback in their first draft, somewhere in the first 3 rounds, unless the team already has an established player at that position. With Jeff Garcia, who was a Jon Gruden guy, a free agent this off season and not likely to return, they shouldn’t hesitate to take one here, especially since they don’t have any other glaring needs. USC QB Mark Sanchez has probably slipped too far, so Tampa should be thrilled to get him to be their signal caller.
20. Detroit Lions 0-16 (via DAL)
The Lions have defensive issues, but they should postpone those until the 2nd round. They should really look to follow Atlanta’s model from last off season. I already have them taking their franchise quarterback in Matt Stafford, now they need a franchise left tackle. Mississippi OT Michael Oher is long overdue to be drafted. He is a natural left tackle, which would allow them to move Jeff Backus inside to guard where he belongs and successfully upgrade two positions at once. In an ironic turn of events, the guy I considered putting #1 about a month ago, is now available at #20, due to slipping stock at the senior bowl and a lack of need for offensive tackles in the #11-19 range.
21. Philadelphia Eagles 11-7-1
The Eagles offensive line was mediocre last season, especially for an Andy Reid team. It could get worse this off season as Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan are both free agents. Even if they do return, they still need an offensive tackle here. Runyan is 35 and Thomas 34. They aren’t going to be around forever even if they do resign. Eben Britton is the best offensive tackle available, but looking at the trends, 310 pound Eben Britton might not be big enough for Andy Reid’s taste. Reid’s offensive line doesn’t have a single starter weighing less than 321 pounds, including 4 players over 330. This is no coincidence. It may be that Reid feels bigger offensive linemen are better. It may be that surrounding himself with bigger offensive linemen helps him feel better about his own weight problems. I don’t know, but I know that if given the choice between 310 Britton and 350 pound Oklahoma OT Phil Loadholt, Reid is going to take Loadholt, even if he’s a little bit lower rated of a prospect. Loadholt is still a great offensive tackle that can help this line out in the future.
22. Minnesota Vikings 10-7
The Vikings could take a quarterback here. Josh Freeman is still on the board and he could be propelled into the first round with his big arm the way Joe Flacco was last season. However, Brad Childress is still coaching. He still believes in Tavaris Jackson enough to give him another shot, or at least enough to wait until the 2nd round to take a quarterback. He might take a quarterback later in the draft, but he’s not going to take one here. The team has a huge hole at right tackle that they should look to fill here. Arizona OT Eben Britton is still available. He can play on the right side and help protect Jackson as he tries to prove he is in fact a capable quarterback (somehow I’m skeptical). Nevertheless, this pick is going to be an offensive lineman as long as Britton is available and Childress is head coach.
23. New England Patriots 11-5
The Pats desperately need help at corner, but the top 2 corners are gone and Bill Belicheck has never been one to reach for cornerbacks. Rodney Harrison is probably done; all he needs to do is submit his retirement. The team needs a long term strong safety replacement for him. Luckily, Belicheck won’t have to reach to grab his replacement as Missouri SS William Moore is a solid value pick and replacement here. He’s probably better against the pass than Harrison would have been, since Harrison is in his mid 30s, so he’d help a secondary that desperately needs it, after ranking 25th in the league in terms of passing yards per attempt allowed.
24. Atlanta Falcons 11-6
Matt Ryan won Rookie of the Year and 11 games this season, despite the fact that his starting tight end was Justin Pelle, who caught 15 balls all season. Imagine how good the young quarterback would be if he had an athletic tight end to help him, such as Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew. As Dustin Keller proved this season, rookie tight ends can still make an impact, as Keller caught 48 balls for 535 yards and was Brett Favre’s favorite target late in the season. Pettigrew can have a similar year, which would help out the Falcons tremendously moving forward.
25. Miami Dolphins 11-6
Bill Parcells likes linebackers, especially ones who were well coached in college. Brian Cushing fits that mold. He went to USC and could help the Dolphins current holes at linebacker, as well as be an eventually replacement for Joey Porter. However, Bill Parcells isn’t stupid. He knows his team played an unbelievably easy schedule this year and, despite the fact that they didn’t really play that many top quarterbacks, they looked like one of the worst pass defenses every week. He knows his team is going to have to play a tough schedule next year, including games against Big Ben and Pittsburgh, Peyton Manning and the Colts, Tom Brady and the Patriots, twice, and Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Having Will Allen as your top corner isn’t going to cut it. Vanderbilt CB DJ Moore is going to be able to add some fire to the defensive backfield next year and for years to come. Remember, this team is still a work in progress, a rebuilding project that just happened to win the division last year. They still need to focus on the future and they can’t go into the future without good cornerbacks.
26. Baltimore Ravens 13-6
The Ravens are in danger of losing 3 of their 4 starting linebackers to free agency. I’m not saying that all 3 would leave, but even losing one would make this team’s strength, their run defense, way less formidable and hurt the team greatly. They need to take a linebacker in anticipation of losing one of theirs. Brian Cushing is probably the best linebacker available, but I think they’ll go with Virginia OLB/DE Clint Sintim instead. Sintim is a better fit because he could move to end for them if all three linebackers return and also because he is a better pass rusher, and this team’s pass rush was lacking at times last season.
27. Indianapolis Colts 12-5
The Colts’ biggest need is at defensive tackle, but they lost in the first round to the Chargers because they couldn’t run the football. Joseph Addai might be back to full strength next season. He might not. They shouldn’t take any chances, especially since they don’t have any glaring needs and because Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno is still available here and he would be a great value selection. Imagine how deadly this offense could be with Peyton Manning and Knowshon Moreno, with the possibility of using powerful Joseph Addai in a limited role as a chance of pace back for the speedy Moreno.
28. Philadelphia Eagles 11-7-1 (via CAR)
The Eagles need a tight end, but Pettigrew has already been snatched up. There’s no need to reach when they can take a tight end in the 2nd round, so they should turn to other needs. Brian Dawkins is a fan favorite, but he is getting old and he was abused against the Cardinals. They need a replacement for him. Western Michigan FS Louis Delmas’s stock is soaring after the Senior Bowl, so he’d be a smart pick here.
29. NY Giants 12-5
Their defensive ends are amazing. They lost Michael Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to injury and they still rank 2nd in sacks. Justin Tuck is a pro bowler for sure, Mathias Kiwanuka might be too. However, with Kiwanuka moving up to defensive end, they lost a lot of the strength of their outside linebackers, forcing them to start Danny Clark, and since it looks like Kiwanuka is a defensive end to stay, they need to address that issue. Their outside linebackers have combined for four, count it four, interceptions, sacks, or forced fumbles this season. USC OLB Brian Cushing is the only outside linebacker, and therefore only player, who merits selection here. He could really breathe some life into their linebackers. Cushing would allow the Giants to take Danny Clark, who in his career, 138 games, has 15 combined sacks, INTs, and forced fumbles, and has been cut by the Raiders because Al Davis didn't even think he could play defense, and put him back where he belongs, special teams.
30. Tennessee Titans 13-4
Corner is a definite need for the Titans, but the more I think about it, the less I see them reaching for Victor Harris. Jeff Fisher would probably be the one making the pick for them, so I think this will be a front 4 player. Albert Haynesworth is a free agent after the season, and if he goes, so could their success. They need a safety net at defensive tackle. USC DT Fili Moala is the best and biggest defensive tackle remaining, which the Titans love. Even if Haynesworth returns, Moala and Haynesworth together on the inside of that line would make this team even more dangerous.
31. Arizona Cardinals 12-7*
The Cardinals have two major needs, running back and defensive end. However, they are well enough off at those two positions to wait until later in the draft if they have to, rather than reaching for Paul Kruger or LeSean McCoy. Since they don’t have any other needs, they can afford to draft the man scouts are calling the best offensive line prospect in the draft and the best center prospect in years, California C Alex Mack. Mack has slipped here just because there never is a need for centers, but he has the talent to be one of the top players in this draft class. The Cardinals signed Al Johnson to a big contract a while back, but he is injured and may never play again. They need an upgrade over Lyle Sendlien at center, especially since this is a power running team. With no glaring needs, they can afford to get a major upgrade at that position with Alex Mack.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 15-3**
Their line was bad last year. Then they lose Alan Faneca and did not replace him. Now, Ben Roethlisberger gets sacked every time looks up seemingly and Willie Parker is struggling without that dominant run blocker to set up his cuts. They need to fix that; the fact that Oklahoma OG Duke Robinson is still available here only adds to that argument. Add in the fact that they have no other real needs and you have a team that needs to draft Duke Robinson.
Second round
33. Detroit Lions 0-16
This defense can only be described as comical. Opposing quarterbacks had an average 110.9 passer rating against them. If a quarterback had that for a season, it would be tied for 5th highest single season passer rating in the history of the game. The Lions weren’t playing Joe Montana, Steve Young, or Tom Brady every week. They playing were average NFL quarterbacks, in fact below average seeing as they played in the quarterback weak NFC North. And every week, they made those average guys looks like Hall of Famers. They need cornerback help now. Connecticut CB Darius Butler could be a part of the solution, plus, and I truly mean this, he can’t make them any worse.
34. Kansas City Chiefs 2-14
The Chiefs pass rush was so bad last year that they need to devote another pick to it. They got their pass rushing linebacker for the 3-4, which is the defense that they are likely to use next year. Now they need a big pass rushing end for the defensive line. 270 pound Northern Illinois DE Larry English should be able to fill that hole. He set Northern Illinois’ record for most sacks in a career and is big enough to play in the 3-4.
35. St. Louis Rams 2-14
The Rams’ potential starting strong safeties for next season are 34-year-old Corey Chavous and Todd Johnson, who sucks. They need an upgrade at this position and Oregon SS Patrick Chung should be able to be that upgrade easily.
36. Cleveland Browns 4-12
The Browns used Jamal Lewis last year as their feature big. Enough said. Lewis is 245 pounds, averaged 3.6 yards per carry, and is set to turn 30, which won’t help. They need a replacement badly and luckily for them, Pittsburgh RB LeSean McCoy is still available to be that feature back for them next season.
37. Seattle Seahawks 4-12
The Seahawks got their pass catcher last round. Now they need to fix that miserable secondary. Don’t believe that its miserable, Brian Russell was the starting free safety. That is the definition of miserable. Alabama FS Rashad Johnson should be able to step in immediately and make it less miserable.
38. Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1
The Bengals are probably going to lose TJ Houshmanzadeh in the off season as a free agent and possibility Chad Johnson too, if he demands a trade again. The Bengals need to get a good receiver for Carson Palmer. Florida RB/WR Percy Harvin is great value here. He can help out in the receiving game as well as in the backfield, where this team was one of the worst in the league. Their running backs were so bad that they broke Cedric Benson out of jail and used him.
39. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11
The Jaguars, despite having talented backs, were not a very good running team last season, after being one of the best in 2007. That is because their interior blocking got no push and sent the backs into a mound of people waiting to tackle them. Adding 380 pounds of pure run blocking ability in LSU OG Herman Johnson will definitely help.
40. Oakland Raiders 5-11
Al Davis might not be competent enough to run a pro football team, but he’s not blind. He should be able to see that JaMarcus Russell needs time in the pocket and that he just isn’t getting it right now because of that offensive line. Or maybe someone will make this pick for him while he’s in the can. I don’t know, but I have a feeling this will be an offensive lineman, such as Connecticut OT William Beatty.
41. Green Bay Packers 6-10
The Packers need depth at cornerback. They just don’t have it. Al Harris might be cut this off season as a cap casualty, but even if he isn’t, he is 34 years old. Charles Woodson had a good season last year, but the team is thinking of moving him to safety in the near future. They need some corner depth and with Virginia Tech CB Victor Harris still available, they should snatch him up.
42. Buffalo Bills 7-9
The Bills have enough of a need for a center, as well as enough of a lack of other needs, to take a center here. Oregon C Max Unger has the physical tools to be a first round, but because of his position, he won’t be a first round. The Bills can use him at center, or if they want, they can make him a tackle or guard.
43. San Francisco 49ers 7-9
Once again, the Niners have a conservative coach, so I can’t see this being a quarterback or receiver when their defensive line is the way it is. Mississippi DT/DE Peria Jerry is a great value pick here. He can play defensive end for them, because even at 290, more than big enough to play end in the 3-4, he can run a 40 in the 4.9s. He had 6 sacks last season, despite spending the majority of it at defensive tackle. He’ll provide life and versatility to a defensive line that needs it.
44. Miami (via WAS) 11-6
The Dolphins have two decent receivers in Davone Bess and Ted Ginn, but they need a big possession receiver, to compliment their two speed receivers. 6-2 North Carolina WR Hakeem Nicks should be able to fill that need for them. He could shoot up to the first round after the combine, but for now he should be available here for the taking.
45. NY Giants (via NO) 12-5
The Giants cannot bring back Plaxico Burress. They made a firm stand when suspending him that they did not employ those types of characters. However, Eli Manning needs a big receiver so badly that the team is considering bringing back Plax. They should look for a big receiver here, such as 6-4 Rutgers WR Kenny Britt, so that they don’t have to bring back Plax.
46. Houston Texans 8-8
The Texans took an end last round, but still have holes in their defensive line. Auburn DT Sen’Derrick Marks has really slipped here and should be a great addition to the front 4. With Mario Williams, Michael Johnson, Amobi Okoye, and Marks up front, they would have one of the best front 4s in the league and since all 4 of those players are so young, they would be a fixture for years to come. Their defense would be a few pieces away from being able to mirror what Tennessee does with their defense.
47. New England Patriots (via SD) 11-5
The Pats need help at both linebacker and corner back so the decision here is between Alphonso Smith and Clay Matthews. When given the choice between a corner and a linebacker, especially a well coached one like USC OLB Clay Matthews, Bill Belicheck is going to pick the linebacker.
48. Denver Broncos 8-8
The Broncos sent 7 different running backs to injured reserve last season. They need a durable every down back. Iowa RB Shonn Greene is consistent and sturdy, which the Broncos are going to love after what happened last season.
49. Chicago Bears 9-7
Because of the lack of available ends at #18, the Bears did not take an end in the first round. However, they still need one as no end had more than 6 sacks last year. They need more modern speed rushers, such as Utah DE Paul Kruger, who is expected to run a 40 in the 4.6s, had 7.5 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss last season.
50. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7
The Bucs got almost no production out of Ike Hillard and Joey Galloway last season, even though they were the projected starters. Luckily Antonio Bryant had a monster season and bailed them out. However, Bryant is a free agent and also has a history of being inconsistent, especially when not playing for money. The Bucs need another receiver such as Oklahoma WR Juaquin Iglesias.
51. Dallas Cowboys 9-7
The Cowboys will probably lose both Adam Jones and Roy Williams this off season, putting them where they were last season, lacking in the secondary. Versatile Utah CB/FS/SS Sean Smith should help out wherever they need him next season, which is going to be helpful.
52. NY Jets 9-7
The Jets don’t know about Brett Favre’s future, but they do know he isn’t going to be playing very long. They need a long term signal caller, such as Kansas State QB Josh Freeman, who is a steal at this point.
53. Philadelphia Eagles 11-7-1
The Eagles slapped the franchise tag on LJ Smith last season. That was a mistake as he seemingly dropped every ball thrown to him this season. The Eagles won’t do that again (hopefully, though you never know with Andy Reid). They need a tight end for Donovan McNabb, or whoever is quarterback next season, though I believe it will be McNabb. South Carolina TE Jared Cook is the best tight end available and makes sense here.
54. Minnesota Vikings 10-7
The Vikings need depth at the cornerback position. Cincinnati CB Mike Mickens is a good value pick and makes sense here. He would be a good nickel cornerback and the kick returner that they lack right now.
55. Atlanta Falcons 11-6
It’s amazing what a good quarterback can do. He can mask all of your other weaknesses enough to win games. The Falcons won 11 games last season, despite the fact that Domonique Foxworth was their #1 corner. Still, Matt Ryan is only going to be able to mask it to a certain degree. If this team wants to make to next step, they need help at that position, such as Wake Forest CB Alphonso Smith.
56. Miami Dolphins 11-6
The Dolphins drafted a cornerback in the first round, but just one isn’t going to be enough for their poor secondary. They need another corner if they can get one and luckily for them Oregon CB Jairus Byrd is available at this point in the draft.
57. Baltimore Ravens 13-6
The Ravens need a cornerback, but unfortunately for them, the last 3 picks gobbled up all of the 2nd round caliber corners so instead of reaching for someone like Mark Parson, they should look to other needs. The Ravens’ defensive line needs some help. LSU DE/DT Tyson Jackson is still available here. He’d be a steal and really help the Ravens out. He’s the type of player they love, big, physical run stopper. He was also well coached at LSU.
58. New England Patriots 11-5
The Pats need corners, but same problem as the Ravens have, there aren’t any good ones here and, no matter how much they need a corner, Bill Belicheck is not going to reach for one. They have issues in the backfield. Laurence Maroney is the most talented back, but he’s inconsistent and injury prone. The rest of their backs are old and lack speed. They need to get that speedy homerun threat. Wyoming RB Devin Moore would serve as that homerun threat and also help in the return game, something they need. Moore is being compared to a poor man’s Felix Jones.
59. Carolina Panthers 12-5
Julius Peppers wants a chance of scenery. That doesn’t mean he’s gone, but they need to prepare in case he leaves as a free agent because that’s more likely than not at this point. Cincinnati DE Connor Barwin could be a suitable replacement. He’s a steal here. If Peppers does return, again not likely, Barwin could play left end, where he would be an upgrade over Tyler Brayton, who had a mediocre 4.5 sacks last season.
60. NY Giants 12-5
The Giants should be put in jail, because they’re about to make a steal. Connecticut RB Donald Brown has slipped due to the lack of need for running backs, as well as the need for different types of running backs. However, Brown is a player that the Giants can get here who is capable of being an every down back in the NFL. That will help the Giants because they could lose both Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward this off season.
61. Indianapolis Colts 12-5
The Colts ignored the need for a defensive tackle last round to take the steal that was Knowshon Moreno. However, they need a defensive tackle to help out their pathetic run defense. Ron Brace is a possibility, but the Colts aren’t all that fond of big defensive tackles. Missouri DT Evander Hood should fit the system better.
62. Tennessee Titans 13-4
The Titans have a need for middle linebackers. Southern Mississippi OLB/MLB Gerald McRath is the best middle linebacker available. However, he might not be big enough to play middle linebacker in the NFL. He might be able to get away with it in Tennessee’s system, but in case he doesn’t, the Titans have the option of moving him to outside linebacker, where they’ll soon need a replacement for Keith Bulluck.
63. Arizona Cardinals 12-7*
Imagine how good the Cardinals’ air attack would be if they had a tight end who was more than just a blocker. Leonard Pope caught just 9 passes all season. If they can add a playing making tight end into the mix, like Missouri TE Chase Coffman, to go with Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Steve Breaston, their passing game would be beyond amazing.
64. Pittsburgh Steelers 14-3**
The Steelers’ history includes a long line of great centers. That line has recently stopped, so the Steelers need to continue it with Arkansas C Jonathan Luigs. Luigs is a talented center that would be the best center prospect in most draft classes, but this year is overshadowed by Alex Mack and Max Unger.
*=projected Super Bowl loser
**=projected Super Bowl winner
Seriously, comments please, I worked my ass off on this, for very little pay. Your comments keep me going. Please comment.
1. Detroit Lions 0-16
There are two main arguments out there on the subject of who the Lions should pick #1. Some believe they should go the route that Miami did last year and draft an offensive lineman first and then a quarterback. Some believe they should go the route Atlanta did last year and draft a quarterback first and then an offensive lineman. However, there are two main reasons why I believe the Lions should go the route of the Falcons. First, while the Dolphins were a much better team this year, a lot of that had to do with the fact that they signed Chad Pennington in the off season. There is no guarantee that the Lions can do the same thing. Second, this is actually, if you can believe it, a weaker quarterback class than last year. Matt Stafford is at the top of the quarterback class this year, but with Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow returning to school, there isn’t a quarterback after Stafford than is a franchise quarterback. The Lions would be much better off taking the best quarterback available, Georgia QB Matt Stafford first, and then going offensive line at #20, the pick they acquired from Dallas. The offensive line class is much deeper than the quarterback class so if they want the best value for their picks, they should go quarterback and then offensive line, instead of vice versa.
2. St. Louis Rams 2-14
The Rams have huge problems with their offensive line. Marc Bulger is a frail injury prone quarterback, who takes a long time to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the line is frail injury prone Orlando Pace and on the right side of the line is a rotating door of frail injury prone right tackles. Eugene Monroe is the best offensive lineman available, but Alabama OT Andre Smith is right behind him and he fills more of a need for the Rams because he’s a natural right tackle. All of a sudden, if Pace can stay healthy, they have Pace and Smith at the tackle positions, which is a very strong duo to help keep Marc Bulger healthy, as he was in 2006 when the team won 10 games, or for a young quarterback to mature behind, if they decide to go that direction.
3. Kansas City Chiefs 2-14
The Chiefs plain and simply need pass rushers and because of that I can’t see this pick being anything other than a pass rusher because the Chiefs only had 10 sacks all year, a record low for an NFL team. What kind of pass rusher, either an end or a linebacker, they take is tough to tell at this point, because the Chiefs are currently a team without a coach. However, their GM Scott Pioli worked with the 3-4 for many years in New England so I have to guess that he will take a coach who uses the 3-4, which would mean that he would need a pass rushing linebacker to fit into the system. Florida State DE/OLB Everette Brown is the type of speed rushing linebacker that would fit into the team’s system and help them get more than 10 sacks next season. Brown had 13.5 sacks by himself last season. If Pioli decides to go with a 4-3 coach, he’s going to draft a pass rushing end in which case this pick would likely be Texas’s Brian Orakpo, but for now I have to assume that the people behind this selection will be drafting for a 3-4.
4. Seattle Seahawks 4-12
Matt Hasselbeck is back, I don’t know why though. Every time he looks up to pass, there’s no one there. It is no longer at the point where they are taking random wide receivers and lining them up like it was earlier in the season, however, his top 2 options are Bobby Engram, 35 years old and counting, and Deion Branch, who hasn’t been healthy since 2005. After them, it gets even worse as Koren Robinson, Jordan Dent, and Courtney Taylor prove week after week that they just can’t catch the football. With Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree still in the board, they need to take him. He might be the most athletically gifted wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson, and that’s saying something.
5. Cleveland Browns 4-12
The Browns’ defense was miserable last season, 26th in terms of yards per game allowed, so they can go the route of best defensive player available. Wake Forest OLB/MLB Aaron Curry is that player. Willie McGinest just turned 37 and had an awful season last year and isn’t going to be much better next season. Alex Hall was decent in limited action last year, but Curry would be a huge upgrade. If Hall proves to be the real thing, they can shift Hall to defensive end, or shift Curry into the middle where he’d be an upgrade over Andra Davis.
6. Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1
The Bengals offensive line did a lot better late in the season, helping to propel the team to a relatively amazing 4-3-1 record over their last 8 games. However, they still allowed 50 sacks last season helping Ryan Fitzpatrick’s, who once graduated from Harvard, IQ drop every game he played. Carson Palmer is going to be back next season, but if they want to keep him upright for the entire season, they need to get better pass protection. Luckily for them, Virginia OT Eugene Monroe is still available here.
7. Oakland Raiders 5-11
For the purposes of this pick, I will pretend I’m Al Davis (man, am I ugly!). I could scout like a normal owner, or I could just look at the 40 times. It’s much easier and look where it’s gotten me so far. Let’s see, decent 40, decent 40, decent 40, 4.31! I don’t care who that guy is but draft him right now, I don’t care if it’s the combine, draft him, give him millions and millions of dollars. That player is speedy Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin, who ran a 4.31 in the preseason and could be even faster at the combine. In all seriousness, the Raiders need to go some playmaking receivers for JaMarcus Russell and Maclin might make a little sense here, even though the Raiders desperately need offensive linemen. No matter how much sense the pick makes, I think it will be what Davis and the Raiders do. If Percy Harvin runs a faster 40, he could be the choice here, but for now I’m going to say that it’ll be Maclin.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11
David Garrard struggled last season throwing 13 picks after throwing only 3 the season before. I don’t know if this explains all of his struggles, but he was sacked 42 times last season. The Jaguars desperately need an upgrade at left tackle of Khalif Barnes, who is probably one of the worst starting left tackles in the league last season. Baylor OT Jason Smith would be a huge upgrade there and help Garrard obtain close to 2007 form.
9. Green Bay Packers 6-10
The Packers were one of the worst run defenses in the league last year, 26th in the league with 4.6 yards per carry allowed. That probably had something to do with the team’s lack of a run stopping defense tackle. Boston College DT BJ Raji has taken advantage of Terrence Cody’s decision to return to school, along with an amazing performance at the Senior Bowl to raise his stock tremendously. If he is still here at this point, Green Bay will take the giant run stopper in a heartbeat.
10. San Francisco 49ers 7-9
This continues to be the most interesting and difficult spot in the first round to predict. The Niners could go so many different ways with this pick. They need a wide receiver, but with Crabtree and Maclin already off of the board, I don’t think that their conservative coach is going to reach for Percy Harvin or Darrius Heyward Bey, especially when the wide receiver class is deep enough for them to take one in the 2nd round. Shaun Hill is a decent quarterback, but not great, so Mark Sanchez could be a possibility. However, with a conservative coach in place, in Mike Singletary who really likes Shaun Hill, I doubt that will be the selection. They have defensive needs, especially for 3-4 linebackers, but Everette Brown is off of the board, so I doubt they’ll reach for Aaron Maybin. Brian Orakpo is a good defensive end, but he’d be too small to fill their need in the 3-4. BJ Raji is off the board, so no defensive tackle is going to be taken here, which leaves the secondary. Safety is the biggest need, but there isn’t a top 10 safety prospect in this draft class. Their cornerbacks were below average last year and shouldn’t be much better this year, especially with Walt Harris set to turn 35 before the season starts and no depth behind him. They need a starting cornerback for the future and Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins could serve in that role.
11. Buffalo Bills 7-9
The Bills decline this season is a head scratching one but I think it can be credited to their decline in pass defense. Their corners are fine, in fact they used a first rounder on Leodis McKlevin last year and he has done fine. However, with Aaron Schobel, injury and age, possibly done as an elite pass rusher for his career, they need to get a #1 pass rusher quick. Quarterbacks are getting too much time in the pocket against them. Texas DE Brian Orakpo could help fill that need quickly.
12. Denver Broncos 8-8
The Broncos gave 5 yards per carry to opposing running back this season. They are very vulnerable down the middle, with a combination of Marcus Thomas, Dewayne Robertson, and Nate Webster playing on the inside of their defense at defensive tackle and middle linebacker. They’ll probably go with the best player available at either of those two positions. Since they recently hired Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator, they will probably move to a 3-4, putting them in dire need for linebackers. USC MLB Rey Maualuga has already slipped some and I can’t see him slipping much further than Denver at #12.
13. Washington Redskins 8-8
The Redskins traded for Jason Taylor this off season with the intention that he would solidify their weak pass rush for a few years to come. However, he got hurt and might not play again, because he’s 34 years old. Even if he comes back next year, their pass rush could stand to be upgraded. In my mind Michael Johnson is the best pass rusher available, but Penn State DE/OLB Aaron Maybin makes more sense for the ‘Skins here because he can play outside linebacker, another weakness, with Marcus Washington likely to be cut as a cap causality, until Taylor calls it quits, if he doesn’t this off season.
14. New Orleans Saints 8-8
The Saints defense was awful enough last season for them to take the best defensive player available. That player would be Ohio State MLB James Laurinaitis. Linebackers are one of their biggest needs. Laurinaitis could play middle linebacker for them if Jonathan Vilma leaves as a free agent, or if Vilma returns, either he or Laurinaitis could move to the outside. The Saints defense is way too awful, ranking 26th in the league in terms of points per game allowed and making sure that Drew Brees’ nearly record setting season translated to only 8 wins, for them to pass up on Laurinaitis, the college stud from Ohio State.
15. Houston Texans 8-8
The Texans need help almost everywhere on defense. Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are decent, but the defense ranked 27th in the league in points per game allowed, to cancel out their deadly offense. Defensive line is probably the most likely, seeing as that’s something that the Texans always seem to draft when they have holes there. They could use an upgrade over Anthony Weaver at end. Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson's stock is rising right now, so he might not be available in this spot, but if he is, they need to take him. He was one of college football’s best pass rushers last season. Take away Mario Williams’ 13 sacks, this team only had 12 all last season. Anthony Weaver, who started alongside Williams all season, had 0. He did not record a single sack all season. You’d think a quarterback would slip near him and he’d get credit for it, but he didn’t even do that. No sacks. He needs to be replaced.
16. San Diego Chargers 9-9
LaDainian Tomlinson might be finished as a productive every down back in this league. Darren Sproles is a free agent and could leave for more money somewhere else. Even if he doesn’t, I still don’t like Sproles as an every down back. He proved in the Pittsburgh game that he isn’t big or consistent enough to do that. I like him in the Reggie Bush role, kick returner/punt returner/change of pace back/slot receiver. Speed doesn’t automatically make you a good running back. However, if you’re fast, there is something you can do to help a football team. Sproles just isn’t a running back. Since neither he or LT seem capable of being every down backs for a title contending team, and since the Chargers have no other needs, they should take Ohio State RB Chris Wells here and trade LT while he still has some value. If they wait a season, they might have to flat out release him, but now they might even be able to get a 2nd round pick for him, or at least a 3rd. Wells can take over right away as a starting running back, with Sproles in the Reggie Bush role. This might be able to become a deadly offense once again next season.
17. NY Jets 9-7
The popular consensus here is that, with a new coaching staff coming in, that the Jets will take a quarterback, for whenever Brett Favre retires, especially if Mark Sanchez is still on the board and possibly even if he is not. However, new head coach Rex Ryan is a defensive guy, which means he’s going to try to patch up any glaring defensive holes first. Their secondary, which gave up the 4th most yards in the league this season, would count as a glaring hole. Illinois CB Vontae Davis is still available and it would surprise me if the Jets didn’t take him. Darrelle Revis is a good #1 corner, but Dwight Lowery makes more sense as a nickel corner, rather than the #2 starter. Davis would fill that role and help patch up the team’s only defensive hole, other than possibly the need for another safety. They are going to get a chance to take a quarterback in the later rounds.
18. Chicago Bears 9-7
The Bears biggest need right now is getting better pass rushers to put pressure on the quarterback. They have a strong steady defense, deadly against the run, but their lack of a pass rush put their pass defense in the bottom half in the majority of the major pass defense categories. However, due to underclassmen like Greg Hardy, George Selvie, and Greg Middleton returning to school, there isn’t one that merits selection here. Rather than reaching for Tyson Jackson, the Bears should focus on other needs. The Bears got so desperate for wide receivers last year that they converted Devin Hester. That didn’t work as Devin Hester couldn’t balance being both a kick returner and wide receiver, ending up being mediocre at both. They need to draft a receiver so they can keep Hester in the slot and on special teams. Maryland WR Darrius Heyward Bey is the type of athlete they need to add to their receiving core. He didn’t have a great year last year, but he’s 6-3 and runs a 4.32 40. He’s also an extremely hard worker so I see no reason why he can’t grow into the future #1 option of the Bears.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7
Rule of thumb, a new coaching regime almost always takes a new quarterback in their first draft, somewhere in the first 3 rounds, unless the team already has an established player at that position. With Jeff Garcia, who was a Jon Gruden guy, a free agent this off season and not likely to return, they shouldn’t hesitate to take one here, especially since they don’t have any other glaring needs. USC QB Mark Sanchez has probably slipped too far, so Tampa should be thrilled to get him to be their signal caller.
20. Detroit Lions 0-16 (via DAL)
The Lions have defensive issues, but they should postpone those until the 2nd round. They should really look to follow Atlanta’s model from last off season. I already have them taking their franchise quarterback in Matt Stafford, now they need a franchise left tackle. Mississippi OT Michael Oher is long overdue to be drafted. He is a natural left tackle, which would allow them to move Jeff Backus inside to guard where he belongs and successfully upgrade two positions at once. In an ironic turn of events, the guy I considered putting #1 about a month ago, is now available at #20, due to slipping stock at the senior bowl and a lack of need for offensive tackles in the #11-19 range.
21. Philadelphia Eagles 11-7-1
The Eagles offensive line was mediocre last season, especially for an Andy Reid team. It could get worse this off season as Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan are both free agents. Even if they do return, they still need an offensive tackle here. Runyan is 35 and Thomas 34. They aren’t going to be around forever even if they do resign. Eben Britton is the best offensive tackle available, but looking at the trends, 310 pound Eben Britton might not be big enough for Andy Reid’s taste. Reid’s offensive line doesn’t have a single starter weighing less than 321 pounds, including 4 players over 330. This is no coincidence. It may be that Reid feels bigger offensive linemen are better. It may be that surrounding himself with bigger offensive linemen helps him feel better about his own weight problems. I don’t know, but I know that if given the choice between 310 Britton and 350 pound Oklahoma OT Phil Loadholt, Reid is going to take Loadholt, even if he’s a little bit lower rated of a prospect. Loadholt is still a great offensive tackle that can help this line out in the future.
22. Minnesota Vikings 10-7
The Vikings could take a quarterback here. Josh Freeman is still on the board and he could be propelled into the first round with his big arm the way Joe Flacco was last season. However, Brad Childress is still coaching. He still believes in Tavaris Jackson enough to give him another shot, or at least enough to wait until the 2nd round to take a quarterback. He might take a quarterback later in the draft, but he’s not going to take one here. The team has a huge hole at right tackle that they should look to fill here. Arizona OT Eben Britton is still available. He can play on the right side and help protect Jackson as he tries to prove he is in fact a capable quarterback (somehow I’m skeptical). Nevertheless, this pick is going to be an offensive lineman as long as Britton is available and Childress is head coach.
23. New England Patriots 11-5
The Pats desperately need help at corner, but the top 2 corners are gone and Bill Belicheck has never been one to reach for cornerbacks. Rodney Harrison is probably done; all he needs to do is submit his retirement. The team needs a long term strong safety replacement for him. Luckily, Belicheck won’t have to reach to grab his replacement as Missouri SS William Moore is a solid value pick and replacement here. He’s probably better against the pass than Harrison would have been, since Harrison is in his mid 30s, so he’d help a secondary that desperately needs it, after ranking 25th in the league in terms of passing yards per attempt allowed.
24. Atlanta Falcons 11-6
Matt Ryan won Rookie of the Year and 11 games this season, despite the fact that his starting tight end was Justin Pelle, who caught 15 balls all season. Imagine how good the young quarterback would be if he had an athletic tight end to help him, such as Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew. As Dustin Keller proved this season, rookie tight ends can still make an impact, as Keller caught 48 balls for 535 yards and was Brett Favre’s favorite target late in the season. Pettigrew can have a similar year, which would help out the Falcons tremendously moving forward.
25. Miami Dolphins 11-6
Bill Parcells likes linebackers, especially ones who were well coached in college. Brian Cushing fits that mold. He went to USC and could help the Dolphins current holes at linebacker, as well as be an eventually replacement for Joey Porter. However, Bill Parcells isn’t stupid. He knows his team played an unbelievably easy schedule this year and, despite the fact that they didn’t really play that many top quarterbacks, they looked like one of the worst pass defenses every week. He knows his team is going to have to play a tough schedule next year, including games against Big Ben and Pittsburgh, Peyton Manning and the Colts, Tom Brady and the Patriots, twice, and Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Having Will Allen as your top corner isn’t going to cut it. Vanderbilt CB DJ Moore is going to be able to add some fire to the defensive backfield next year and for years to come. Remember, this team is still a work in progress, a rebuilding project that just happened to win the division last year. They still need to focus on the future and they can’t go into the future without good cornerbacks.
26. Baltimore Ravens 13-6
The Ravens are in danger of losing 3 of their 4 starting linebackers to free agency. I’m not saying that all 3 would leave, but even losing one would make this team’s strength, their run defense, way less formidable and hurt the team greatly. They need to take a linebacker in anticipation of losing one of theirs. Brian Cushing is probably the best linebacker available, but I think they’ll go with Virginia OLB/DE Clint Sintim instead. Sintim is a better fit because he could move to end for them if all three linebackers return and also because he is a better pass rusher, and this team’s pass rush was lacking at times last season.
27. Indianapolis Colts 12-5
The Colts’ biggest need is at defensive tackle, but they lost in the first round to the Chargers because they couldn’t run the football. Joseph Addai might be back to full strength next season. He might not. They shouldn’t take any chances, especially since they don’t have any glaring needs and because Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno is still available here and he would be a great value selection. Imagine how deadly this offense could be with Peyton Manning and Knowshon Moreno, with the possibility of using powerful Joseph Addai in a limited role as a chance of pace back for the speedy Moreno.
28. Philadelphia Eagles 11-7-1 (via CAR)
The Eagles need a tight end, but Pettigrew has already been snatched up. There’s no need to reach when they can take a tight end in the 2nd round, so they should turn to other needs. Brian Dawkins is a fan favorite, but he is getting old and he was abused against the Cardinals. They need a replacement for him. Western Michigan FS Louis Delmas’s stock is soaring after the Senior Bowl, so he’d be a smart pick here.
29. NY Giants 12-5
Their defensive ends are amazing. They lost Michael Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to injury and they still rank 2nd in sacks. Justin Tuck is a pro bowler for sure, Mathias Kiwanuka might be too. However, with Kiwanuka moving up to defensive end, they lost a lot of the strength of their outside linebackers, forcing them to start Danny Clark, and since it looks like Kiwanuka is a defensive end to stay, they need to address that issue. Their outside linebackers have combined for four, count it four, interceptions, sacks, or forced fumbles this season. USC OLB Brian Cushing is the only outside linebacker, and therefore only player, who merits selection here. He could really breathe some life into their linebackers. Cushing would allow the Giants to take Danny Clark, who in his career, 138 games, has 15 combined sacks, INTs, and forced fumbles, and has been cut by the Raiders because Al Davis didn't even think he could play defense, and put him back where he belongs, special teams.
30. Tennessee Titans 13-4
Corner is a definite need for the Titans, but the more I think about it, the less I see them reaching for Victor Harris. Jeff Fisher would probably be the one making the pick for them, so I think this will be a front 4 player. Albert Haynesworth is a free agent after the season, and if he goes, so could their success. They need a safety net at defensive tackle. USC DT Fili Moala is the best and biggest defensive tackle remaining, which the Titans love. Even if Haynesworth returns, Moala and Haynesworth together on the inside of that line would make this team even more dangerous.
31. Arizona Cardinals 12-7*
The Cardinals have two major needs, running back and defensive end. However, they are well enough off at those two positions to wait until later in the draft if they have to, rather than reaching for Paul Kruger or LeSean McCoy. Since they don’t have any other needs, they can afford to draft the man scouts are calling the best offensive line prospect in the draft and the best center prospect in years, California C Alex Mack. Mack has slipped here just because there never is a need for centers, but he has the talent to be one of the top players in this draft class. The Cardinals signed Al Johnson to a big contract a while back, but he is injured and may never play again. They need an upgrade over Lyle Sendlien at center, especially since this is a power running team. With no glaring needs, they can afford to get a major upgrade at that position with Alex Mack.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 15-3**
Their line was bad last year. Then they lose Alan Faneca and did not replace him. Now, Ben Roethlisberger gets sacked every time looks up seemingly and Willie Parker is struggling without that dominant run blocker to set up his cuts. They need to fix that; the fact that Oklahoma OG Duke Robinson is still available here only adds to that argument. Add in the fact that they have no other real needs and you have a team that needs to draft Duke Robinson.
Second round
33. Detroit Lions 0-16
This defense can only be described as comical. Opposing quarterbacks had an average 110.9 passer rating against them. If a quarterback had that for a season, it would be tied for 5th highest single season passer rating in the history of the game. The Lions weren’t playing Joe Montana, Steve Young, or Tom Brady every week. They playing were average NFL quarterbacks, in fact below average seeing as they played in the quarterback weak NFC North. And every week, they made those average guys looks like Hall of Famers. They need cornerback help now. Connecticut CB Darius Butler could be a part of the solution, plus, and I truly mean this, he can’t make them any worse.
34. Kansas City Chiefs 2-14
The Chiefs pass rush was so bad last year that they need to devote another pick to it. They got their pass rushing linebacker for the 3-4, which is the defense that they are likely to use next year. Now they need a big pass rushing end for the defensive line. 270 pound Northern Illinois DE Larry English should be able to fill that hole. He set Northern Illinois’ record for most sacks in a career and is big enough to play in the 3-4.
35. St. Louis Rams 2-14
The Rams’ potential starting strong safeties for next season are 34-year-old Corey Chavous and Todd Johnson, who sucks. They need an upgrade at this position and Oregon SS Patrick Chung should be able to be that upgrade easily.
36. Cleveland Browns 4-12
The Browns used Jamal Lewis last year as their feature big. Enough said. Lewis is 245 pounds, averaged 3.6 yards per carry, and is set to turn 30, which won’t help. They need a replacement badly and luckily for them, Pittsburgh RB LeSean McCoy is still available to be that feature back for them next season.
37. Seattle Seahawks 4-12
The Seahawks got their pass catcher last round. Now they need to fix that miserable secondary. Don’t believe that its miserable, Brian Russell was the starting free safety. That is the definition of miserable. Alabama FS Rashad Johnson should be able to step in immediately and make it less miserable.
38. Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1
The Bengals are probably going to lose TJ Houshmanzadeh in the off season as a free agent and possibility Chad Johnson too, if he demands a trade again. The Bengals need to get a good receiver for Carson Palmer. Florida RB/WR Percy Harvin is great value here. He can help out in the receiving game as well as in the backfield, where this team was one of the worst in the league. Their running backs were so bad that they broke Cedric Benson out of jail and used him.
39. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11
The Jaguars, despite having talented backs, were not a very good running team last season, after being one of the best in 2007. That is because their interior blocking got no push and sent the backs into a mound of people waiting to tackle them. Adding 380 pounds of pure run blocking ability in LSU OG Herman Johnson will definitely help.
40. Oakland Raiders 5-11
Al Davis might not be competent enough to run a pro football team, but he’s not blind. He should be able to see that JaMarcus Russell needs time in the pocket and that he just isn’t getting it right now because of that offensive line. Or maybe someone will make this pick for him while he’s in the can. I don’t know, but I have a feeling this will be an offensive lineman, such as Connecticut OT William Beatty.
41. Green Bay Packers 6-10
The Packers need depth at cornerback. They just don’t have it. Al Harris might be cut this off season as a cap casualty, but even if he isn’t, he is 34 years old. Charles Woodson had a good season last year, but the team is thinking of moving him to safety in the near future. They need some corner depth and with Virginia Tech CB Victor Harris still available, they should snatch him up.
42. Buffalo Bills 7-9
The Bills have enough of a need for a center, as well as enough of a lack of other needs, to take a center here. Oregon C Max Unger has the physical tools to be a first round, but because of his position, he won’t be a first round. The Bills can use him at center, or if they want, they can make him a tackle or guard.
43. San Francisco 49ers 7-9
Once again, the Niners have a conservative coach, so I can’t see this being a quarterback or receiver when their defensive line is the way it is. Mississippi DT/DE Peria Jerry is a great value pick here. He can play defensive end for them, because even at 290, more than big enough to play end in the 3-4, he can run a 40 in the 4.9s. He had 6 sacks last season, despite spending the majority of it at defensive tackle. He’ll provide life and versatility to a defensive line that needs it.
44. Miami (via WAS) 11-6
The Dolphins have two decent receivers in Davone Bess and Ted Ginn, but they need a big possession receiver, to compliment their two speed receivers. 6-2 North Carolina WR Hakeem Nicks should be able to fill that need for them. He could shoot up to the first round after the combine, but for now he should be available here for the taking.
45. NY Giants (via NO) 12-5
The Giants cannot bring back Plaxico Burress. They made a firm stand when suspending him that they did not employ those types of characters. However, Eli Manning needs a big receiver so badly that the team is considering bringing back Plax. They should look for a big receiver here, such as 6-4 Rutgers WR Kenny Britt, so that they don’t have to bring back Plax.
46. Houston Texans 8-8
The Texans took an end last round, but still have holes in their defensive line. Auburn DT Sen’Derrick Marks has really slipped here and should be a great addition to the front 4. With Mario Williams, Michael Johnson, Amobi Okoye, and Marks up front, they would have one of the best front 4s in the league and since all 4 of those players are so young, they would be a fixture for years to come. Their defense would be a few pieces away from being able to mirror what Tennessee does with their defense.
47. New England Patriots (via SD) 11-5
The Pats need help at both linebacker and corner back so the decision here is between Alphonso Smith and Clay Matthews. When given the choice between a corner and a linebacker, especially a well coached one like USC OLB Clay Matthews, Bill Belicheck is going to pick the linebacker.
48. Denver Broncos 8-8
The Broncos sent 7 different running backs to injured reserve last season. They need a durable every down back. Iowa RB Shonn Greene is consistent and sturdy, which the Broncos are going to love after what happened last season.
49. Chicago Bears 9-7
Because of the lack of available ends at #18, the Bears did not take an end in the first round. However, they still need one as no end had more than 6 sacks last year. They need more modern speed rushers, such as Utah DE Paul Kruger, who is expected to run a 40 in the 4.6s, had 7.5 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss last season.
50. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7
The Bucs got almost no production out of Ike Hillard and Joey Galloway last season, even though they were the projected starters. Luckily Antonio Bryant had a monster season and bailed them out. However, Bryant is a free agent and also has a history of being inconsistent, especially when not playing for money. The Bucs need another receiver such as Oklahoma WR Juaquin Iglesias.
51. Dallas Cowboys 9-7
The Cowboys will probably lose both Adam Jones and Roy Williams this off season, putting them where they were last season, lacking in the secondary. Versatile Utah CB/FS/SS Sean Smith should help out wherever they need him next season, which is going to be helpful.
52. NY Jets 9-7
The Jets don’t know about Brett Favre’s future, but they do know he isn’t going to be playing very long. They need a long term signal caller, such as Kansas State QB Josh Freeman, who is a steal at this point.
53. Philadelphia Eagles 11-7-1
The Eagles slapped the franchise tag on LJ Smith last season. That was a mistake as he seemingly dropped every ball thrown to him this season. The Eagles won’t do that again (hopefully, though you never know with Andy Reid). They need a tight end for Donovan McNabb, or whoever is quarterback next season, though I believe it will be McNabb. South Carolina TE Jared Cook is the best tight end available and makes sense here.
54. Minnesota Vikings 10-7
The Vikings need depth at the cornerback position. Cincinnati CB Mike Mickens is a good value pick and makes sense here. He would be a good nickel cornerback and the kick returner that they lack right now.
55. Atlanta Falcons 11-6
It’s amazing what a good quarterback can do. He can mask all of your other weaknesses enough to win games. The Falcons won 11 games last season, despite the fact that Domonique Foxworth was their #1 corner. Still, Matt Ryan is only going to be able to mask it to a certain degree. If this team wants to make to next step, they need help at that position, such as Wake Forest CB Alphonso Smith.
56. Miami Dolphins 11-6
The Dolphins drafted a cornerback in the first round, but just one isn’t going to be enough for their poor secondary. They need another corner if they can get one and luckily for them Oregon CB Jairus Byrd is available at this point in the draft.
57. Baltimore Ravens 13-6
The Ravens need a cornerback, but unfortunately for them, the last 3 picks gobbled up all of the 2nd round caliber corners so instead of reaching for someone like Mark Parson, they should look to other needs. The Ravens’ defensive line needs some help. LSU DE/DT Tyson Jackson is still available here. He’d be a steal and really help the Ravens out. He’s the type of player they love, big, physical run stopper. He was also well coached at LSU.
58. New England Patriots 11-5
The Pats need corners, but same problem as the Ravens have, there aren’t any good ones here and, no matter how much they need a corner, Bill Belicheck is not going to reach for one. They have issues in the backfield. Laurence Maroney is the most talented back, but he’s inconsistent and injury prone. The rest of their backs are old and lack speed. They need to get that speedy homerun threat. Wyoming RB Devin Moore would serve as that homerun threat and also help in the return game, something they need. Moore is being compared to a poor man’s Felix Jones.
59. Carolina Panthers 12-5
Julius Peppers wants a chance of scenery. That doesn’t mean he’s gone, but they need to prepare in case he leaves as a free agent because that’s more likely than not at this point. Cincinnati DE Connor Barwin could be a suitable replacement. He’s a steal here. If Peppers does return, again not likely, Barwin could play left end, where he would be an upgrade over Tyler Brayton, who had a mediocre 4.5 sacks last season.
60. NY Giants 12-5
The Giants should be put in jail, because they’re about to make a steal. Connecticut RB Donald Brown has slipped due to the lack of need for running backs, as well as the need for different types of running backs. However, Brown is a player that the Giants can get here who is capable of being an every down back in the NFL. That will help the Giants because they could lose both Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward this off season.
61. Indianapolis Colts 12-5
The Colts ignored the need for a defensive tackle last round to take the steal that was Knowshon Moreno. However, they need a defensive tackle to help out their pathetic run defense. Ron Brace is a possibility, but the Colts aren’t all that fond of big defensive tackles. Missouri DT Evander Hood should fit the system better.
62. Tennessee Titans 13-4
The Titans have a need for middle linebackers. Southern Mississippi OLB/MLB Gerald McRath is the best middle linebacker available. However, he might not be big enough to play middle linebacker in the NFL. He might be able to get away with it in Tennessee’s system, but in case he doesn’t, the Titans have the option of moving him to outside linebacker, where they’ll soon need a replacement for Keith Bulluck.
63. Arizona Cardinals 12-7*
Imagine how good the Cardinals’ air attack would be if they had a tight end who was more than just a blocker. Leonard Pope caught just 9 passes all season. If they can add a playing making tight end into the mix, like Missouri TE Chase Coffman, to go with Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Steve Breaston, their passing game would be beyond amazing.
64. Pittsburgh Steelers 14-3**
The Steelers’ history includes a long line of great centers. That line has recently stopped, so the Steelers need to continue it with Arkansas C Jonathan Luigs. Luigs is a talented center that would be the best center prospect in most draft classes, but this year is overshadowed by Alex Mack and Max Unger.
*=projected Super Bowl loser
**=projected Super Bowl winner
Seriously, comments please, I worked my ass off on this, for very little pay. Your comments keep me going. Please comment.
Labels: 2 rounds, Andre Smith, Detroit Lions, Matt Stafford, Mock Draft, NFL, NFL Draft
posted by Steven Lourie at
4:48 PM
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