NFL Mock Draft 3/14

1. Detroit Lions 0-16

QB Matt Stafford- Georgia

 I don’t agree with the pick, but I have very little doubt in my mind that this pick will be Matt Stafford. The Lions need hope fast and the prospect of a great franchise quarterback like Stafford is going to give them hope. I would build around a quarterback, with a top left tackle like Eugene Monroe or Jason Smith, and then take a quarterback next season when the quarterback class is much stronger, but this is not what I think should happen, this is what I think will happen. I would be surprised if the Lions took anyone other than Stafford.

 2. St. Louis Rams 2-14

OT Jason Smith- Baylor

 Orlando Pace is gone so the Rams need a Jake Long or Joe Thomas esque franchise left tackle to protect Mark Bulger or whoever is the quarterback next season. Jason Smith is the top left tackle on the board, followed closely by Eugene Monroe. I think the pick will be Smith, but I would not be surprised if the Rams took Monroe. However, I give Smith the edge here because of his superior combine performance.

 3. Kansas City Chiefs 2-14

OLB/MLB Aaron Curry- Wake Forest

 The Chiefs will not take a quarterback here like many thought they would because they have since traded for Matt Cassel. Now they need to focus on fixing that awful defense. They need pass rushers badly because they had a record low 10 sacks last season. However, with the move for veteran Mike Vrabel, they can afford to take a different position here. The combination of Derrick Johnson and Vrabel rushing off the edge is good enough for next season. Aaron Curry is the best defensive player available and can slide right into the Chiefs’ hole in the middle of their 3-4 defense.

 4. Seattle Seahawks 4-12

OT Eugene Monroe- Virginia

 The Seahawks locked like a look to take Michael Crabtree until they signed TJ Houshmanzadeh in a surprise signing. Now, with Deion Branch lining up at the #2 and Nate Burleson coming back from injury next season, they have a respectable group of receivers and can afford to wait until a later round to address that position. The Seahawks have the less than stellar Sean Locklear starting at right tackle, assuming they move Ray Willis to guard as they say they will, and 35 year old Walter Jones starting at left. Monroe can play right until Jones moves on, which could be next off season, and then move over to left, his natural position.

 5. Cleveland Browns 4-12

DE/OLB Brian Orakpo- Texas

 The Browns only mustered 17 sacks last season, which, if it wasn’t for the Chiefs’ awful showing of 10, would have ranked last in the NFL. Willie McGinest is done as an elite pass rusher so they are going to need another top rushing outside linebacker. Brian Orakpo played defensive end in college, but at 263 pounds with a 4.70 40, Orakpo should be easily able to move to outside linebacker in a 3-4 system. He had 10.5 sacks last season and is considered the best pass rusher in the draft.

 6. Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1

DT BJ Raji- Boston College

 The Bengals need offensive line help, but they can get some in a later round because right now, the only way to get an offensive lineman would be to reach for either Michael Oher or Andre Smith, which wouldn’t be smart. With a decent 2^nd round offensive lineman, Carson Palmer should be able to get the help he needs to stay healthy and lead this offense back to playoff form. It’s the defense that worries me. They ranked in the bottom half in most defensive categories, including run defense. BJ Raji was amazing at the senior bowl where he was coached by the Bengals’ coaching staff. He’s simply too good of a defensive prospect for the Bengals to pass up here.

 7. Oakland Raiders 5-11

DE/OLB Everette Brown- Florida State

 We must check this pick for all 3 of the parts that every Raiders’ pick has. A Raiders’ pick must, on the surface look like a good move, because it fills a positional need. Jay Richardson, at left end, only had 3 sacks last season. Meanwhile, at right end, Derrick Burgess had only 3.5 sacks and is going to turn 31. Rumor has it the Raiders are trying to trade him. Brown definitely fills a need. A Raiders’ pick must have great athleticism, especially a great 40. Brown ran a 4.73 40 which is very good for a defensive end, especially when you consider the fact that most players were running unusually slow 40s at the combine. Brown should run somewhere around 4.62-4.65 at his pro day, which is amazing. Finally, a Raiders’ pick should, in spite of parts 1 and 2, make no sense when you look at it close enough. At 6-1 and change and only 256 pounds, Brown is way too small to play defensive end at a high level in a 4-3. He’s way too small to compete one on one with big left tackles. Many believe this pick will be Michael Crabtree. Crabtree does not have the 40 time. He was not all that fast to begin with and, if he actually runs a 40 before the draft, he will do it with a broken foot, which will not help.

 8. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11

WR Michael Crabtree- Texas Tech

 The Jaguars should be weary about taking a receiver in the first round considering the busts that Matt Jones and Reggie Williams have been after they have taken them. However, neither of those guys was as talented as Crabtree so they shouldn’t worry too much. Crabtree has slipped to due injury and questions about his speed, however, he is still the best receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson so the Jaguars, who lack a #1 option, need to take him here.

 9. Green Bay Packers 5-11

CB Vontae Davis- Illinois

 Al Harris and Charles Woodson are fine corners, but both are in the mid 30s. Harris might be gone by next season and Woodson reportedly will be making the switch to safety in the next year or two. After those guys, they are very thin at the cornerback position. Davis would give them depth next season and could be a future starter. This would be a great position for Davis as well because he gets to spend a year in a position where he does not have to guard elite receivers. This will allow him to mature correctly.

 10. San Francisco 49ers 7-9

OT Michael Oher- Mississippi

 The 49ers could go a lot of different ways here. They need a pass rushing outside linebacker more than anything, but I think it’s too early to take Aaron Maybin or even Larry English. They need a corner and a safety. Malcolm Jenkins can play both of those positions and, if he had had a very good workout at his pro day, he would have been the pick here. However, so far he has shown that he lacks the athletic ability to be worth a top 10 pick as evidenced by poor 40 times at the Combine and at his pro day. Mark Sanchez is the popular pick, but I don’t think conservative coach Mike Singletary will use a first rounder on a quarterback when his team has other needs. Offensive line then makes the most sense. Young Joe Staley has been decent at left tackle in his first 2 years in the league, but he needs to move back to his natural position, right tackle, full time. Michael Oher would allow them to move Staley to there. Oher might be viewed as a bit of a reach, but he was at one point a top 3 caliber pick, so he could also be a steal here. Rey Maualuga is a possibility as well.

 11. Buffalo Bills 7-9

DE/OLB Larry English- Northern Illinois

 The Bills need to generate a better pass rush. English was one of the college football’s best pass rushers last season with 8 sacks and was Northern Illinois’ all time leader pass rusher with 30.5 sacks, despite sitting his freshman year. He can definitely help them here. Starting right end Aaron Schobel has injury issues and starting left end Chris Kelsay is nothing special. English might be small for a defensive end, at 255 pounds, but Schobel is 243 pounds and has thrived in Buffalo’s defensive system for the throughout his career, before getting hurt last year. English shouldn’t have much problem doing the same. Plus, English benched 36 reps at the combine so it’s not like it’s a lack of strength issue.

 12. Denver Broncos 8-8

MLB Rey Maualuga- USC

 The Denver Broncos are regarded as having one of the 5 worst defenses in NFL history last season. They are now switching to a 3-4 so they are going to need big, strong tackle machines in the middle of their defense and they have none of those right now. Maualuga is the top middle linebacker prospect in the draft and fits the mold of the tough defensive presence they have lacked for years. He will help the Broncos run defense especially, which ranked 30^th in the league last year giving up 5.0 yards per carry.

 13. Washington Redskins 8-8

OT Andre Smith- Alabama

 Someone is going to take a risk on Smith early and I have a feeling that someone will be the Redskins. Smith has the athletic ability of a #1 pick with the work ethic of an undrafted free agent. However, the Redskins often take risks on guys with character issues and they have a need for a right tackle right now. Jon Jansen has had a good run as a starter at right tackle, but he’s 33 and lost his job last season, maybe for good. He could stand to be upgraded.

 14. New Orleans Saints 8-8

CB/FS Malcolm Jenkins- Ohio State

 Jenkins’ slow 40 at the combine raised some issues as to whether he is a cornerback or a free safety. That shouldn’t be an issue for a team with needs at both of those positions, which the Saints do. Jenkins would be more valuable to a team at corner and could mature into an upgrade over Randall Gay at corner. However, he will likely fit in better at free safety at first. Free safety is a position that, last season, was occupied by either Josh Bullocks or Kevin Kaesviharn. Jenkins would be an upgrade over both of them from day 1.

 15. Houston Texans 8-8

OLB Brian Cushing- USC

 The Texans offense was amazing last season, especially considering that Matt Schaub missed time with injury, as the team ranked 2^nd in passing yards per attempt. They have a decent ground game too, but the defense was what kept this from being a playoff team. They did a good job filling a need at left end with Antonio Smith, but they still need to take the best defensive player available. Cushing is the best defensive player available. He would be an immediate upgrade over Morlon Greenwood, who did not record a single sack, interception, or forced fumble all season, and could pair well with promising young Xavier Alibi, a 4^th round pick last season.

 16. San Diego Chargers 8-8

DE Tyson Jackson- LSU

 The Chargers have several needs, a 3-4 defensive end, a middle linebacker, a right tackle, a guard, and a strong safety. Unfortunately for them, drafting any of those positions here would be a reach, which is why I think they will move down if even the opportunity. If the draft falls this way come draft time, the Chargers will have plenty of suitors wanting to move to up take Mark Sanchez, including Tampa Bay at #19 and Minnesota at #22. The Chargers will be able to get more value for their pick if they move down to either one of those spots and in those spots will still be able to get guys to fill their needs. However, if they cannot, for whatever reason, trade down, they will take Tyson Jackson who is the best player available at end of their need positions. He can start from day one as a defensive end in the 3-4 system and replace Igor Olshansky who has moved on to Dallas. I had a running back going here until the Chargers resigned LT to a contract that will pay him exactly the same amount next season and will not safe them any money until 2010. Because of that, I don’t think the Chargers will take a running back here and pay him 5-6 million, which is what Chris Wells or Knowshon Moreno would cost at this point, when they still have to pay LT 8 million and Darren Sproles 6.6 mil. They won’t tie up that much money at one position.

 17. New York Jets 9-7

QB Mark Sanchez- USC

 The Jets have done a great job of building their defense, bringing in Bart Scott, Lito Sheppard, and Jim Leonhard. However, with Brett Favre gone, they need a new quarterback. The Jets shouldn’t have any qualms about starting Sanchez from day 1. They are putting him in a situation similar to the one Joe Flacco took over last year. Solid running game, solid line, and most importantly great defense to back him. Flacco led the Ravens to the playoffs as a rookie.

 18. Chicago Bears 9-7

OT Eben Britton- Arizona

 The Bears need a receiver, but don’t think that this pick is going to be Jeremy Maclin just because he has slipped a bit. The Bears simply don’t take receivers in the first round. They conservative Bears will take an offensive lineman again, for the 2^nd year in a row. John Tait is retiring. John St. Clair is still a free agent and might not be back and so is Fred Miller so the Bears are without a right tackle on their roster. Even if St. Clair and/or Miller return, they still need offensive line help. Both St. Clair and Miller are average at best and left tackle Chris Williams has injury issues. If Williams can stay healthy, he and Britton will make a nice offensive tackle duo for the next 10-12 years.

 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7

DT Peria Jerry- Mississippi

 Even though the Bucs have a new regime in town, don’t expect this pick to be a quarterback unless they move up to get Sanchez or Sanchez somehow falls to them. Luke McGown has been promised a chance at a starting job so they won’t use a 1^st rounder on a quarterback, especially when new head Raheem Morris has said he is committed to rebuilding the defense. The Bucs don’t have a 2^nd rounder so if they go quarterback in the first round, they will have a hard time rebuilding the defense through the draft. Peria Jerry is the best defensive player available and fills a need at defensive tackle.

 20. Detroit Lions (via DAL) 0-16

OT William Beatty- Connecticut

 The Lions have to protect Matt Stafford if they want him to have any chance of being a good quarterback. William Beatty will allow the Lions to move Jeff Backus back to his natural position at left guard, successfully upgrading two positions along the line at once. That is definitely going to help Stafford long term.

 21. Philadelphia Eagles 9-6-1

RB Chris Wells- Ohio State

 The Eagles haven’t gone after running backs as long as Andy Reid has been coach, but Reid isn’t stupid. He knows his job is on the line and his team needs to win now. The majority of the good teams in the league last year won on the strong of good running games with at least two good running backs. Wells would compliment Brian Westbrook well, allowing Westbrook to be more of a playmaker than a true running back and reducing the strain on and hopefully the threat of injury to Westbrook’s legs.

 22. Minnesota Vikings 10-6

C Alex Mack- California

 The Vikings appear content with Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels as their quarterbacks, so this pick won’t be Josh Freeman. The Vikings will then turn to their offensive line, which could be upgraded at 2, if not 3 positions here. They could go right tackle with either Jamon Meredith or Phil Loadholt, right guard with Duke Robinson, or center with Alex Mack. Mack is the best value here and should be the pick.

 23. New England Patriots 11-5

DE/OLB Michael Johnson- Georgia Tech

 Two months ago, the decision here was between a cornerback and a linebacker. Since then, they have signed cornerbacks Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden and traded linebacker Mike Vrabel. It seems that decision has been made for them. Michael Johnson is one of the most athletic pass rushing prospects in a while. He has been compared to Julius Peppers and Mario Williams. He might not have the motor, but you have to think a team like a Patriots will think they can bring to most out of him.

 24. Atlanta Falcons 11-5

CB DJ Moore- Vanderbilt

 The Falcons defense was not good last season, ranking 24^th in the league in yards per game allowed. This off season, they have lost 5 defensive starters from last season, Keith Brooking, Michael Boley, Domonique Foxworth, Lawyer Milloy, and Grady Jackson. Jamaal Anderson, at left end, only had 2 sacks last season and could be replaced. They also need a tight end badly. Because of all of those needs, this pick could go a number of ways. However, the rest of their needs can be addressed in later rounds. They have a lot of depth at corner, but they need a legitimate #2 starter. They won’t be able to get one in the later rounds. Moore can also double as a kick returner, which the Falcons also need.

 25. Miami Dolphins 11-5

OLB/DE Clay Matthews- USC

 The Dolphins need a linebacker and they need a cornerback. History has shown that when given a choice between a linebacker and anything else, Bill Parcells will take a linebacker. Clay Matthews is the best available. He can support a pass rush that died late last season and be the replacement for Joey Porter when he moves on or if they decide to trade him. This draft class is structured such that the Dolphins should be able to get a good cornerback when they pick with Washington’s pick at #44 in the 2^nd round.

 26. Baltimore Ravens 11-5

WR Jeremy Maclin- Missouri

 Derrick Mason is 35 and has only one more year on his contract. The Ravens need another wideout across from Mark Clayton. Maclin can start in the slot, providing young Joe Flacco with another option before moving into the starting lineup in a season or two. Maclin is a steal here at this point.

 27. Indianapolis Colts 12-4

WR Hakeem Nicks- North Carolina

 The Colts have a history of drafting offensively, even with holes on defense. Nicks is good value here and will allow Anthony Gonzalez to stay in the slot, even with Marvin Harrison gone. He will give Peyton Manning 3 good targets to choose from and make this offense even more deadly.

 28. Philadelphia Eagles (via CAR) 9-6-1

OG/OT Duke Robinson- Oklahoma

 Andy Reid loves to draft offensive linemen when he can, and even sometimes when he can’t. The Eagles have lost Tra Thomas to the Jaguars and it does not look like Jon Runyan will be brought back. Shawn Andrews is still battling depression and might not be back next season, so you can expect the Eagles to take one or two big offensive linemen early in the draft. At 329 pounds, Duke Robinson fills that need. He also is versatile enough to play in 4 spots along the line, which will be essential as the Eagles figure out what Shawn Andrews’ future is like and determine what to do position wise with Todd Herremans.

 29. New York Giants 12-4

RB Knowshon Moreno- Georgia

 The Giants have done a great job of reloading their defense this off season, so they can afford to focus on offense here. Running back isn’t the biggest need for the Giants here, but Moreno might be too good to pass up here. Plus, running back wasn’t the biggest need for Minnesota when they took Adrian Peterson in 2007, nor was it for the Panthers when they took Jonathan Stewart last year nor was it for the Titans when they took Chris Johnson last year. Look where it got those teams. The Giants did it with Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs last season and they can do the same this year with Jacobs and Moreno.   

 30. Tennessee Titans 13-3

DT Evander Hood- Missouri

 The Titans lost Albert Haynesworth to free agency and he left a huge gaping hole in the middle of their defense. You have to think that Jeff Fisher is going to fix up the defensive line if he needs to, despite the fact that the Titans are badly in need of wide receivers. Evander Hood’s strong combine pushed him into the late 1^st-early 2^nd round range. Fisher will love his potential and athleticism.

 31. Arizona Cardinals 9-7

OLB/DE Clint Sintim- Virginia

 The Cardinals pass rush struggled last season, even late in the season during their Super Bowl run. They only had 31 sacks which can be improved. The Cardinals like tweener linebacker/defensive ends because they give them versatility. Sintim qualifies and can help a defense in need. He’d be an upgrade over Chike Okeafor.

 32. Pittsburgh Steelers 13-3

FS/CB Sean Smith- Utah

 The Steelers could use another safety to pair with Troy Polamalu. Neither Anthony Smith nor Ryan Clark were anything special last season and Smith would be an immediate upgrade over both. The Steelers need offensive line badly, but, for one thing, I don’t think they realize how badly they need offensive lineman as they appear content to let Ben Roethlisberger get beat up and chased around every week (hey, they won the Super Bowl, you can’t really question it) and for another thing, no offensive lineman really merits selection here.