NFL Mock Draft

 1. Detroit (0-16)- QB Matt Stafford (Georgia)

 This already has been confirmed, so I’ll just give a brief summary of what I think. This could be great or this could be disastrous. They are giving him 41.7 million dollar guaranteed which is a lot. That could make him complacent and not want to give his all, especially through what figures to be a rough start to his career with very little talent around him. However, he has one of the strongest arms of any quarterback prospect in the last 5 years. He needs to learn to not force things and make better decisions and he’d probably be better off sitting a year behind Daunte Culpepper. I would have gone with the safer pick, Jason Smith, but this pick has a lot more upside.

 2. St. Louis (2-14)- OT Jason Smith (Baylor)

 This one is almost as much of a lock as the Stafford pick. The Rams need an offensive lineman badly to replace Orlando Pace, otherwise Mark Bulger might actually die this season. The only other thing I could see happening here is the Rams’ changing their minds and deciding that Eugene Monroe is the best tackle here, but as of now, Smith is going to be the pick.

 3. Kansas City (2-14)- DE Tyson Jackson (LSU)

 This is a surprise pick here. Everyone has had Aaron Curry going here since they traded for Matt Cassel, but reports have come out in the last week that Pioli has fallen in love with Jackson and wants him as that Richard Seymour type of 3-4 end who can also pressure the quarterback. That, combined with the addition of Zach Thomas, may have tipped the Chiefs hand that this will be a surprise pick. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was still Curry, but Jackson is more likely.

 4. Seattle (4-12)- OLB Aaron Curry (Wake Forest)

 Seattle needs another outside linebacker now that Julian Peterson is in Detroit. They shouldn’t hesitate to fill that need with the best overall defensive player in this draft class. Their other starting linebacker from last year, Leroy Hill, has been given the franchise tag but has not signed, giving them more reason to bring in a defensive presence like Curry. Curry will help immediately a defense that ranked 30^th in the league in yards per game allowed. With Matt Hasselbeck still signed, they are going to want to help their team right now and picking Curry will allow them to do that.

 5. Cleveland (4-12)- OLB Brian Orakpo (Texas)

 The Browns only mustered 17 sacks last season, which, if it wasn’t for the Chiefs’ awful showing of 10, would have ranked last in the NFL. Willie McGinest is done as an elite pass rusher, maybe as a football player completely, so they are going to need another top rushing outside linebacker. Brian Orakpo played defensive end in college, but at 263 pounds with a 4.70 40, Orakpo should be easily able to move to outside linebacker in a 3-4 system. He had 10.5 sacks last season and is considered the best pass rusher in the draft.

 6. Cincinnati (4-11-1)- OT Eugene Monroe (Virginia)

 This passing offense, when healthy, can make this a playoff team by itself. However, they were not healthy last year as Carson Palmer was sacked so many times that he had to miss 12 games with injury. They need to protect Palmer and the best way to do that is with a franchise type left tackle like Monroe. If Palmer is healthy, and the defense continues to improve as they did last year, this could be a surprise team next season.

 7. Oakland (5-11)- WR Darrius Heyward Bey (Maryland)

 I originally had Michael Johnson here for his freakish athleticism, but then the thought occurred to me that Al Davis is going to want to help out his 60 million dollar quarterback, JaMarcus Russell. So, I slated the equally athletic Darrius Heyward Bey here. He is a great athlete, but I’m not convinced he can be a legitimate #1 option in the NFL. However, Al Davis will see his 4.30 40 at 6 foot 2 and think otherwise. He will take him even if Michael Crabtree is still available, though Crabtree is the best receiving prospect since Calvin Johnson, causing some Raiders’ fans to shoot themselves.

 8. Jacksonville (5-11)- WR Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech)

 Oakland’s loss is Jacksonville’s gain. Al Davis was scared off by the fact that Michael Crabtree didn’t run a 40, due to injury, and took Darrius Heyward Bey, who had the fastest 40 of any NFL prospect. Now the Jaguars get Crabtree to come in and play alongside Torry Holt. He’ll also have the privilege of learning from Holt, which will help him tremendous. Jacksonville’s receiving corps aren’t looking so sorry after all, in fact, if David Garrard is his 2007 self again, this passing game could surprise.

 9. Green Bay (6-10)- NT BJ Raji (Boston College)

 Ryan Pickett is moving to nose tackle for their 3-4 defense. However, Pickett is 30 years old, on a contract year, and has never played nose tackle before. There is going to be room in the mix for Raji, even if he doesn’t get a lot of action at nose tackle right away. Raji is versatile and despite his massive size, he can move to defensive end in 3-4 for the time being, which is a big position need for the Packers.

 10. San Francisco (7-9)- QB Mark Sanchez (USC)

 Mike Singletary is a conservative coach, so he’ll have some qualms about taking a signal caller, especially given what happened to Alex Smith. However, the 2008 Niners were not the 2004 Niners. Sanchez isn’t going to have a lot of pressure on him right away, as Shaun Hill is still a capable starter. The offensive line isn’t as miserable and he’d be backed by a solid defense. Overall, Sanchez should do a good job in San Francisco and he’s too good of a prospect to pass up at #10. One interesting idea I had is that the Niners trade this pick to Washington, along with Shaun Hill, for Jason Campbell and the 13^th pick. However, I am not going to “mock” that down here since I’ve heard no rumors whatsoever about the possibility.

 11. Buffalo (7-9)- OT Michael Oher (Mississippi)

 Jason Peters is gone so their biggest need, defensive end, will have to wait. The defensive end class is a lot deeper than the offensive tackle class. If they were to take a defensive end here, they could be stuck choosing between Phil Loadholt and Jamon Meredith at #28 and that would not be a favorable situation. Instead, they take Oher here and look to target defensive ends either that #28 or #42.

 12. Denver (8-8)- OLB Aaron Maybin (Penn State)

 The Broncos want to add anything they can to their defense and bringing in the guy I view as the best overall pass rusher in the class will definitely be something the Broncos do if even the chance. They ranked 26^th in the league in sacks and are moving to a new defensive scheme. Maybin would be a perfect fit at 3-4 rush linebacker and would help their passing defense as a whole. Their passing defense ranked 31^st in opposing quarterback rating allowed.

 13. Washington (8-8)- OT Andre Smith (Alabama)

 After his no show at the combine and his sorry showing at his pro day, Andre Smith does in no way deserve to be a 1^st round pick. However, he has great potential, so someone is still going to take a chance, and probably make a mistake, by drafting him in the first round. The Redskins need a right tackle and they have an owner in charge who often makes mistakes. It’s a match made in heaven.

 14. New Orleans (8-8)- RB Chris Wells (Ohio State)

 I am 100% percent sure that the Saints will take someone from Ohio State. However, whether it will be Chris Wells or Malcolm Jenkins, I am not sure. I believe it’ll be Wells because he’ll give them the best chance to win now. With Drew Brees leading the passing game, and the double headed running back of Reggie Bush and Chris Wells, assuming the two can avoid injuries, the defense only has to be decent for this team to be a Super Bowl contender. Malcolm Jenkins would fill more of a position need, but Wells will give them the best chance to win next year, which is what this team wants. They’ll have to settle for Jabari Greer and Darren Sharper as their only defensive backfield additions this offseason. If that can be enough to improve their pass defense, they’ll be fine defensively next year.

 15. Houston (8-8)- FS Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio State)

 The Texans have always lacked the ball hawking leader in their defensive backfield. Malcolm Jenkins will be a great fit here because of his versatility. He can play corner alongside Dunta Robinson, or be an upgrade over Nick Ferguson at safety. Either way, he’ll help a pass defense that only had 12 picks last year.

 16. San Diego (8-8)- DE Evander Hood (Missouri)

 This is the second surprise pick. With all of the top 4 offensive tackle off the board, the Chargers will turn to defense, instead of reaching for a guy like Eben Britton. This could be middle linebacker with Rey Maualuga, but Igor Olshansky is gone at defensive end and this team needs someone to replace him along the 3 man defensive line. Hood played defense tackle in college, but he’s a good pass rusher, especially for his size, 300 pounds, which the Chargers will love.

 17. New York Jets (9-7)- QB Josh Freeman (Kansas State)

 The Jets are going to try to trade up for Mark Sanchez and then they’re going to try to trade for Jason Campbell. However, if Jacksonville keeps their pick at #8, which they will if Michael Crabtree is available, the Jets can’t move up there to take Sanchez and the Redskins can’t move up their to take Sanchez and alienate Jason Campbell. The Jets will have to settle for Josh Freeman. Freeman reminds me of Joe Flacco a little bit, who stepped into a similar situation in Baltimore last year and led them to the playoffs as a rookie. New Jets head coach and former Ravens’ defensive coordinator Rex Ryan will believe the Freeman can do the same here.

 18. Denver - from Chicago (9-7)- MLB Rey Maualuga (USC)

 More defensive help for a team that desperately needs it. They signed Andra Davis, but they need another middle linebacker to pair with him if they want to avoid finishing 30^th in run defense again. Maualuga’s stock has slipped to due an injury, but I believe the injury is nothing major and Maualuga is still the top 10 caliber prospect he was before he got hurt.

 19. Tampa Bay (9-7)- DE Robert Ayers (Tennessee)

 They need a defensive tackle which is why I wouldn’t be surprised if they moved this pick to Kansas City for Glenn Dorsey, with the Chiefs then picking either Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing to add some youth to their linebacking corps. However, I have not heard much of that rumor, so I won’t put that down. The Bucs will consider Peria Jerry, but he’s not a great fit for their system, so they’ll look at another position. They could get a burner receiver like Jeremy Maclin, but after the complete overhaul of their defense this offseason, I believe this will be a defensive pick. Ayers is a great athlete, who could have easily gone earlier than this. Put him next to Gaines Adams and they’ll solidified their pass rush for the next 8-10 years.

 20. Detroit - from Dallas (9-7)- OT William Beatty (Connecticut)

 The Lions have to protect Matt Stafford if they want him to have any chance of being a good quarterback. William Beatty will allow the Lions to move Jeff Backus back to his natural position at left guard, successfully upgrading two positions along the line at once. That is definitely going to help Stafford long term.

 21. Philadelphia (9-6-1)- RB Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)

 The Eagles need another running back to pair with Brian Westbrook. Perferably it would be a power back, but the Eagles can’t be picky. Moreno fits their west coast offense very well. He’ll split carries with Westbrook, hopefully lengthening Westbrook’s career in the process, and then he’ll take over for Westbrook, who turns 30 in September, when Westbrook is finished in Philly.

 22. Minnesota (10-6)- OT Eben Britton (Arizona)

 Ryan Cook is a bad right tackle. Eben Britton is not. Imagine how much better Adrian Peterson will be with the massive 310 pound Britton blocking for him on the right side and Bryant McKinnie blocking for him on the left. This running game will be better than ever and the Vikings have shown that its all about maximizing and improve your strengths, at least in their eyes.

 23. New England (11-5)- OLB Clay Matthews (USC)

 I wouldn’t take Matthews because I don’t think he helps their pass rush as much as they need. I’d take someone like Everette Brown or Connor Barwin, but Bill Belicheck loves Clay Matthews’ versatility and who am I to argue with someone with 3 Super Bowl rings. Matthews still fills a position of incredible need.

 24. Atlanta (11-5)- DE Everette Brown (Florida State)

 Taking another defensive end in the first round, 2 years after taking Jamaal Anderson, also a defensive end, might seem like a bad idea. However, sticking with Anderson, two sacks in 2 seasons, would be a worse idea. This defense isn’t going to be very good with all of the players they’ve lost, but if they want to improve their defense in the most efficient way possible, they need to take a page out of the New York Giants’ book and pressure the hell out of the opposing quarterback. Brown had 13 sacks last season and is good enough to go in the top 10, but has slipped due to lack of need.

 25. Miami (11-5)- CB Vontae Davis (Illinois)

 Vontae Davis is the most athletic corner in the draft class, but he’s also a pain in the ass. Bill Parcells is known for his ability to take risks on guys and with this pass defense set to get even more awful with the loss of Andre Goodman, I expect Parcells to take Davis and hope for the best.

 26. Baltimore (11-5)- WR Jeremy Maclin (Missouri)

 Derrick Mason is 35 and has only one more year on his contract. The Ravens need another wideout across from Mark Clayton. Maclin can start in the slot, providing young Joe Flacco with another option before moving into the starting lineup in a season or two. Maclin is a steal here at this point.

 27. Indianapolis (12-4)- DT Peria Jerry (Mississippi)

 I’ve had the Colts taking a wide receiver here for a while, because history has shown that they like to take offense. That’s still a possibility with Kenny Britt available, but I’ve changed this pick to Peria Jerry because I just see him as too good of a fit for them to pass up. They also have a new coach now that Tony Dungy is gone so the same rules may not apply. Tony Dungy was always confident in his ability to coach the defense that he would rarely spend an early pick on defense, but new coach Jim Caldwell might not have that same confidence. He may have more confidence in Peyton Manning that his own ability to coach defense, which would be wise.

 28. Buffalo - from Philadelphia via Carolina (12-4)- TE Brandon Pettigrew (Oklahoma)

 They need a defensive end, but this is a deep defensive end class and I can’t see them passing up a great tight end prospect with Brandon Pettigrew. He’s just way too big of a steal at this point, especially for a team with absolutely no one of note at the tight end position going into next season. With Lee Evans, Terrell Owens, and Pettigrew, Trent Edwards will have plenty of nice targets to throw to next year, which will be great for his development, as long as Owens doesn’t suspect Pettigrew and Edwards of a conspiracy to keep the ball away from him.

 29. New York Giants (12-4)- WR Kenny Britt- Rutgers

 Plaxico Burress is gone, so if the Giants can’t get Anquan Boldin or Braylon Edwards, they’ll get the next best thing, 6 foot 3 Kenny Britt. I believe Britt’s combination of size, speed, and good hands makes him the 2^nd best receiver in this class, though it may not play out that way on draft day. The Giants should consider themselves lucky they can get a downfield target like Britt for Eli Manning to throw to.

 30. Tennessee (13-3)- CB Darius Butler (Connecticut)

 Cornerback isn’t their biggest need, but Nick Harper is going to turn 35 next season and Darius Butler is too good to pass up here. The Titans love 40 times almost as much as the Raiders so Butler’s 4.38 has to be attractive. He’s the best player available for them here and fills a need. They can get their defensive line help in later rounds.

 31. Arizona (9-7)- RB Donald Brown (Connecticut)

 Edgerrin James isn’t happy in Arizona and he’ll be 31 by the time the season starts up. His days are numbered. Tim Hightower can really push the pile as a running back and pick up first downs and touchdowns, but he’s not an every down back. He averaged 2.8 yards per carry last season. Donald Brown can come in, allow them to cut or trade Edge, and pair very nicely with Hightower.

 32. Pittsburgh (12-4)- C Alex Mack (California)

 Their line was too awful last season for them to pass up a once in a generation type center prospect like Alex Mack, as some people are calling him. Mack has only slipped because of his position and the lack of need for centers, but Pittsburgh needs one badly. Justin Hartwig was one of the worst in the NFL last season, while Mack would be a top 5 center, maybe even top 3, from day one in the NFL.