Thursday, December 18, 2008

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

Awful

32. Detroit Lions 0-14: I’m running out of things to say about them. They are just that awful. They won’t win this season, but as the Falcons showed last off season, it’s easy to turn around a team with a good off season. With Matt Millen no longer leading this team, anything is possible, especially since they have 2 first round draft picks.

31. St. Louis Rams 2-12: They don’t have a very bright future, winning 4 games combined in the last few years, but they could at least look like the care and try out there. This team is a mess, as evidenced by their loss to the Seahawks who only have 3 wins of their own.

30. Cincinnati Bengals 2-11: The Bengals won a game last week in an upset, but this is still a mess of a team. They can’t run, they can’t pass, at least no with Carson Palmer, and their defense is still not very good. One top wide receiver wants out; the other one will probably leave as a free agent.

Better luck next year

29. Kansas City Chiefs 2-12: The Chiefs just can’t catch a break, losing so many close games this year that they should have won. The blown 21-3 to the Chargers is just a glimpse at what this season has been like for the Chiefs. Carl Peterson is gone as GM and that’s a good thing. They also have some great young talent for the future, coming off what is still a great draft back in April, with another top draft pick coming up, and a good signal caller in Tyler Thigpen.

28. Seattle Seahawks 3-11: This team won last week, getting a close victory over the awful Rams. However, this is still a very disappointing season, especially in Mike Holmgren’s final season. Holmgren might not be done yet though. Don’t count out a comeback, rumored to be interested in a front office job with his home town Niners. I don’t think this is how Holmgren wants to go out, even if he said before the season that he wants to retire after the year to spend more time with his family.

27. Oakland Raiders 3-11: The Raiders are not a good team by any means, and a lot of that can be traced back to the offensive line as well as shortsighted moves by the owner and the rest of the front office. I mean you know something’s wrong when you score the most points you’ve scored all season in a 23 point loss, as they did against the Pats last week. However, I give them credit for their ability to pull out random upsets, otherwise they might be looking at 0-16 as well.

26. Cleveland Browns 4-10: This team is a mess right now with Ken Dorsey leading the offensive unit that recently scored its first offensive touchdown in nearly a month in the fourth quarter of a game in which they trailed 30-3 at the time. However, they have some hope the future. They are expected to come back with a new fulltime quarterback, Brady Quinn over Derek Anderson, who likely gets traded, as well as a new running back, with Jamal Lewis likely on the way out, and likely a new coach as it will take a “miracle” to save Romeo Crennel’s job. That will be very interesting as they look to prove this year, in which they have lost double digits, is the fluke, rather than their 2007 season, in which they won double digits. Right now, that one looks like the fluke, but they could prove me wrong.

Looking forward to a top ten draft pick

25. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-9: This team is easily one of the most disappointing this year. With their talent, they should have won more than 5 games. This just goes to show that a combination of overly high expectations and lack of a passing game in a warm weather home stadium don’t mix.

24. Green Bay Packers 5-9: The wheels officially fell off this team with their loss to Jacksonville. This team is a complete mess right now, despite the fact that Aaron Rodgers has played very well this season, with a higher passer rating than Brett Favre. However, even though their problem has been run offense and defense, Aaron Rodgers is still going to take the bulk of the blame.

23. Buffalo Bills 6-8: This team will make the short list of teams that finished 4-0 and failed to make the playoffs and they’ll probably fail to make the playoffs by a large margin. They play the Broncos and Patriots to close out the season, two not so fun games for them, so they could easily end up going 6-10, including 1-9 in their last 10, and miss the playoffs by 4 or 5 games.

Probably not a playoff team

22. San Francisco 49ers 5-9: The Niners don’t have a very good record, but should have won last week, as well as earlier this season against Arizona. This is a team that should be hovering around .500 and for this team, that’s a huge start on what’s shaping up to be a future that’s brightening everyday under Mike Singletary.

21. San Diego Chargers 6-8: They are still hanging in there after a miracle comeback against the Kansas City Chiefs. They have had an awful season, but if a few things go right this week, most notably the team going into Tampa and pulling off the upset, as well as Denver losing to Buffalo, it sets up a week 17 match up between the Chargers and Broncos and a playoff spot. More than likely, they won’t make the playoffs, but they have yet to be mathematically eliminated and with the talent that they have on their team, remember this is the same team, with the same players at least, that was some people’s Super Bowl favorites before the season, they are a dangerous team.

20. New Orleans Saints 7-7: Drew Brees has officially dropped out of the MVP race it looks like, seeing as he has this nasty habit of throwing the ball to the wrong team in the clutch. He has good stats, but he’s also part of the reason the Saints are 7-7. You can’t blame it all on injuries and the defense. The quarterback is somewhat at fault here. This could easily be a 9-5 if it wasn’t for late collapses against Tampa and Chicago.

Making some noise

19. Washington Redskins 7-7: Jim Zorn recently called himself the worst coach in the world. Now there are some people calling for him to lose his job. Still, remember, this guy was the one who got them out to that hot start and turned Jason Campbell into a winner. The team has definitely declined, but that has more to do with Clinton Portis struggling, which I don’t think you can trace back to a quarterback’s coach.

18. Houston Texans 7-7: Imagine where this team would be if Schaub to Johnson was healthy all year. That is one of the most underrated and deadliest quarterback-wide receiver combos in the league. Nonetheless, they are still in a position where they can finish with a winning record, for the first time in franchise history, which for this team would be huge. They have a great future ahead of them.

Close, but no cigar

17. Chicago Bears 8-6: The Bears need the Vikings to lose out to win the division and make the playoffs, which, with the way they’ve been playing lately isn’t likely. If that happens, then the Bears would still need to win their last two, which is possible, but still, I don’t like their playoff chances.

16. Philadelphia Eagles 8-5-1: It must be that time of the year again because the Eagles won’t lose. However, it looks like they have to win out to make the playoffs so they better hope this streak continues. In the playoffs, I wouldn’t like their chances, because of their inability to score in the red zone or convert on 3rd and short.

15. Miami Dolphins 9-5: The Dolphins seem to be in good position, with an easy game this week and a game upcoming week 17 against the Jets, which could be for the division. However, I don’t like their chances against the Jets, and look out for those Chiefs. They are an interesting upset choice for this week, which is bad news because, in that division, the Dolphins can’t afford a loss. A loss would mean that it would take prayers to get into the playoffs.

On the playoff bubble

14. NY Jets 9-5: The Jets won last week, but it took a miracle. Something isn’t right which is why the Pats become the new favorites in the AL East. The Jets are still very much alive though.

13. Atlanta Falcons 9-5: The Falcons are currently out of the playoff picture if the season were to end deadly. They face an uphill battle and need to win out and Dallas to lose at least one. Next up, a trip to Minnesota as their Achilles heel, the run defense, looks to stop AP and the Vikings.

12. New England Patriots 9-5: The Pats didn’t look good last week defensively, giving up 26 to the Raiders. However, they have a cakewalk of a schedule over these last two weeks and control their own fate. I’d rather be in their position that the Dolphins, who are on the outside looking in, and the Jets who look somewhat of a mess right now.

11. Dallas Cowboys 9-5: Huge win last week against the Giants, but they’ve still got their work cut out to make the playoffs. They have two tough games coming up, Philadelphia and Baltimore so they can’t afford to collapse. I can’t see them getting any higher than the 2nd wild card because of the fact that Tampa’s last two games are against the Chargers and Raiders.

Playoffs and maybe more

10. Denver Broncos 8-6: They might end up being the worst team to make the playoffs. They are going to get rolled by anyone with a running game, which is every playoff team. However, with the Chargers in a bad position below them, they are likely going to make the playoffs, even if they don’t do anything good once there.

9. Arizona Cardinals 8-6: The rebirth of the Greatest Show on Turf has been rolled to the turf over the past few weeks. They aren’t going to do much better than the Broncos come playoffs time, but thanks to a weak division, they already have clinched their playoff ticket.

8. Minnesota Vikings 9-5: If Tavaris Jackson keeps playing like this, it would give them a true signal caller and if that’s the case, look out. This is a Super Bowl contender. However, that probably isn’t the case, but even if it isn’t AP could win them a playoff game or two by himself, along with this stout defense.

Dark horses

7. Baltimore Ravens 9-5: They Ravens very easily could have won that last game against the Steelers, and probably should have judging from the looks of that “touchdown” replay. However, all they look is the chance to win the division. This team is exactly as dangerous to playoff teams as they were last week and with this experienced defense, that’s very, very dangerous.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-5: The Buccaneers have lost two in a row, but they both have been on the road to tough division rivals. It may have raised some concerns and questions, most notably whether or not their run defense is as good as believed. However, they should take these last 2 games, San Diego and Oakland, to get right and go into the playoffs as a dangerous team that you shouldn’t sleep on, especially if Jeff Garcia comes back 100%.

5. Indianapolis Colts 10-4: Tell me if this sounds dangerous. Peyton Manning and the Colts coming into the playoffs with a 9 game winning streak, and a bunch of people sleeping on them. That could very well end up being the case. This team should be the single most feared team by any playoff team right now and they’re not. Dwight Freeney is healthy, Bob Sanders, is healthy, Peyton Manning is healthy, Marvin Harrison is getting there. This team is as good, if not better because of the fact that they’re sneaking up on people, than the one that won the Super Bowl in 2007.

Elite Runner Ups

4. New York Giants 11-3: The Giants have to be worried. Their 6-5 red zone target has a self afflicted gunshot wound in his leg, and huge legal issues, and their 260 pound short yardage back is not 100% if he plays at all. Eli Manning has been exposed and looks like his early 2007 self again. They play the Panthers for the NFC regular season title this week, so they could very well lose 3 straight. If they don’t get things right, they could lose before the conference finals. Most likely they will though and they’ll get another shot at Carolina in the Conference Finals if they lose to them this week.

3. Carolina Panthers 11-3: Before we crown them Super Bowl champs, they still have to beat the Giants twice, in my opinion, the first time to ensure that the second one will be at home, where they are undefeated, and the second time to make the Super Bowl. However, they look really good right now and a win against the Giants could shoot them up this chart even more.

2. Tennessee Titans 12-2: They still only have 2 losses, but losing to Houston, combined with losing both Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth, made this a very bad week for them. The Steelers couldn’t be coming to town at a worse time for them.

Favorite

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 11-3: Regardless of whether or not they deserved to win against Baltimore, they did and they look like the type of team that can win anywhere, against anyone. That is the single most important aspect of a team going into the playoffs.

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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

NFL Week 16 Picks

Indianapolis at Jacksonville 34-21

The Colts are on a roll as of late, which is a scary thought for many teams. Jacksonville won last week, but they aren't the same team as last year, the one that could have won the division. They don't have the chemistry. Peyton Manning and the Colts should win one fairly easily here.

Fantasy MVP: Peyton Manning 350 yards 4 touchdowns 1 INT

Baltimore at Dallas 23-31

The Cowboys looked really good last week. The Ravens defense is great, especially against the run, but weak against the pass. That's bad news when playing a pass heavy team like the Cowboys, in a pass friendly enviornment like Dallas. Marion Barber won't have a great game against this Baltimore run defense, few do, but he's the type of back, a power back like Brandon Jacobs, who had a great game against the Ravens earlier this year, who can stablize the running game and not force the Cowboys to be one dimensional. That should set up the pass, which Baltimore is weak against, and force the Ravens' young offense to play from behind, which they could have trouble with.

Fantasy MVP: Tony Romo 280 yards 3 touchdowns 1 INT

Cincinnati at Cleveland 10-13

Both teams are just so awful. This might be one of the sloppiest games of football all year. The Browns have at least some talent, in the running game, and a few defensive players, as well as kick returner Josh Cribbs, so I'll pick them to win a messy one.

Fantasy MVP: Braylon Edwards 95 yards receiving 1 touchdown

San Francisco at St. Louis 27-10

This was a blowout, in the Niners' favor, last time these two teams met. Not much has changed since then. The Rams are still not trying and the Niners are still making good progress for the future under Mike Singletary. Expect the same result as last time. This one will be over fast.

Fantasy MVP: Shaun Hill 230 yards passing 2 touchdowns 1 INT

New Orleans at Detroit 38-21 lock pick

The Saints offense is going to have the game of their lives. Detroit's defense is that bad. Look for the Saints and their strong offense to blow out the Lions, pushing them to 0-15. The Lions will score some on the Saints' weak defense, but it'll be far too little, far too late.

Fantasy MVP: Pierre Thomas 130 yards rushing 35 yards receiving 3 touchdowns

Pittsburgh at Tennessee 31-10 upset pick

You might be surprised at the predicted margin of victory, but I expect Pittsburgh to go into Tennessee and win in very easily fashion. The Titans are walking wounded without Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch, their two most important defensive players. They aren't going to be able to create anything up front without them, or at leat not nearly enough to exploit the Steelers' one weakness, the line, and win in the trenches. Ben Roethlisberger is going to get time in the pocket and pick apart the Titans' secondary.

Fantasy MVP: Ben Roethlisberger 280 yards 2 touchdowns 0 INTs

Miami at Kansas City 21-24 upset pick

Kansas City has to win eventually. They can't keep losing close games and I think this will be the week they break out and get a good win. The Dolphins looked really bad last week, even in a win, nearly blowing it at home against San Francisco. I don't think this team is as talented as their record says they are. They will go into Kansas City and lose, as the Chiefs finally win a close one. The Chiefs have really looked good lately with Tyler Thigpen at quarterback.

Fantasy MVP: Ronnie Brown 100 yards rushing 50 yards receiving 2 touchdowns

Arizona at New England 38-41

If Tavaris Jackson can get 4 touchdowns against Arizona, how many can Matt Cassel get? Cassel and the Patriots' offense should have a fairly easy time here. Even with Cassel at the helm, instead of Tom Brady, they have looked like the 2007 Patriots offensively at times. This should be another one of those times. Kurt Warner and the Cardinals should have a good game too offensively, but not enough to outscore the Pats in this sure to be high scoring affair. Plus, Arizona should be affected by the 3 hours time difference which has messed up so many good teams this year.

Fantasy MVP: Matt Cassel 360 yards passing 4 touchdowns 1 INT

San Diego at Tampa Bay 20-27

This is the Chargers last chance to salvage their season, so they'll give a good effort. However, I just don't think they have what it takes to have a good season this year. They aren't going to be able to beat both major trends in the NFL this season, teams traveling across threee times zones often lose and the NFC South is 26-2 at home, and come into Tampa and win a game. They aren't good enough and Tampa isn't bad enough.

Fantasy MVP: LaDainian Tomlinson 90 yards rushing 45 yards receiving 1 touchdown

Houston at Oakland 17-21 lock pick

Matchup of the week right here in terms of player vs. player. Andre Johnson is the wide receiver that Matt Schaub throws to almost every play. Nmandi Asomugha is the cornerback that will be defending him and the cornerback that no one every throws on. If he can shut down Johnson, the Texans will have no one to go to and lose this one. If Johnson wins, the Texans will have a field day. I'm going with the former for the upset.

Fantasy MVP: Steve Slaton 70 yards rushing 40 yards receiving 2 touchdowns

Buffalo at Denver 14-38

Denver is one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. That also means they randomly explode for huge games. Against a Buffalo team that is going nowhere but down, 1-7 in their last 8 after starting 5-1, that looks very likely.

Fantasy MVP: Jay Cutler 420 yards passing 4 touchdowns 1 INT

NY Jets at Seattle 27-21

East Coast teams have had trouble playing west coast teams on the west coast, with the exception of the Patriots, and most notably the Jets, losing to both the Raiders and the Niners. However, the Seahawks aren't very good, so that shouldn't matter. Brett Favre will win here, though it will be much closer than their records say it should be.

Fantasy MVP: Thomas Jones 110 yards rushing 40 yards receiving 2 touchdowns

Atlanta at Minnesota 20-24

The Falcons have two weaknesses, defending the run and going on the road. Going to Minnesota to play the Vikings and the league's best running back Adrian Peterson shouldn't be much fun for them. They'll lose a well fought game.

Fantasy MVP: Adrian Peterson 140 yards rushing 2 touchdowns

Philadelphia at Washington 31-21

The Eagles are crusing, the Redskins, not so much. This will be a good close game that will by a mirror of these team's true talent. However, Donovan McNabb and company may be too much for the Redskins.

Fantasy MVP: Donovan McNabb 250 yards passing 3 touchdowns 1 INT

Carolina at NY Giants 27-17 upset pick/game of the week

The Giants are a good team. However, they've really been missing Plaxico because now they have no redzone receiver, especially since they traded Jeremy Shockey before the season. Now they are missing Brandon Jacobs, their redzone and short yardage back. They can't expect to beat Carolina, as good as the Panthers have been playing, not being able to score in the redzone or convert on 3rd and short.

Fantasy MVP: DeAngelo Williams 140 yards rushing, 40 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns

Green Bay at Chicago 20-24

The Packers have been without a strong running game all year, with Ryan Grant struggling. Whether or not that has been a result of a poor line is questionable, but the facts are that they do struggle with the run and that has shown in their record. The Bears are one of the league's best running teams, going against the Packers poor run defense, in what is supposed to be mid teens temperatures, weather forecast says 15-18 degrees with snow, which also happens to be the temperature where you need to run and stop the run. Advantage home team. Advantage Chicago.

Fantasy MVP: Matt Forte 110 yards rushing 20 yards receiving 2 touchdowns

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